dryslot Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 Unreal the destruction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Damn that is a powerful vid Brought tears to my eyes. St John is our go to island for vacations. Already donated 2 weeks ago. Also donated to Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico causes. Actually I was reading about tropical forests. The greenery will come back very quickly. Once they can rebuild the main power lines then people can start rebuilding housing. Puerto Rico is in a much worse situation since just so many more large transmission lines and population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 3, 2017 Author Share Posted October 3, 2017 Looks like a nuclear blast went off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 This could be interesting. Developing area of convection way down in SW Caribbean. I guess that moves NW as per the NHC. Then the 12Z GFS develops it into a tropical system and moves it into the Gulf and northward towards New Orleans this weekend and towards us next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/915289256150622208 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 Looks like we’ve got another major.. heading for FL . Crazy year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 3, 2017 Share Posted October 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/915289256150622208 Hum, he says maybe a major? I don't see any models showing that kind of intensification but he knows much more than me for sure... I guess if 'Nate' can stay offshore of Central America and shoot the gap between the Yucatan and West Cuba then it has a good chance of becoming a real problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 6 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: Hum, he says maybe a major? I don't see any models showing that kind of intensification but he knows much more than me for sure... I guess if 'Nate' can stay offshore of Central America and shoot the gap between the Yucatan and West Cuba then it has a good chance of becoming a real problem. Well it is important to note the ECMWF (and most model guidance for that matter) is not good with intensity forecasts. And the Euro has tended to be too weak on intensity with the well developed systems. That being said, it is a bit of a headline grabbing tweet considering only one EPS member gets to a similar strength as the op (sub 980). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 On 10/1/2017 at 9:57 PM, OceanStWx said: Secret spot. Not for long if they keep sharing pictures of triple overhead waves. elbow ledge, not very secret Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, amarshall said: elbow ledge, not very secret I was seeing the area of shoaling near what I see labeled as Sheep Pen Rock just off Sachuest Pt, so that doesn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 8 hours ago, OceanStWx said: I was seeing the area of shoaling near what I see labeled as Sheep Pen Rock just off Sachuest Pt, so that doesn't surprise me. Same spot http://im-1.msw.ms/md/image.php?id=181012&type=PHOTOLAB&resize_type=PHOTO_FULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 If you look close, you can see a hairy Italian from NE CT rolling around inside the crest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 you can see a large break from second beach, is that it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: If you look close, you can see a hairy Italian from NE CT rolling around inside the crest. 2 things bigot, not hairy, half Italian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 2 things bigot, not hairy, half Italian Bigot? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Bigot? Really? Hairy, Italian, cmon sometimes your block head doesn't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 RIP to my weekend plans yet again to work on another hurricane. I am looking forward to having my life back once this season is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 4 hours ago, amarshall said: Same spot http://im-1.msw.ms/md/image.php?id=181012&type=PHOTOLAB&resize_type=PHOTO_FULL Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 Lots of racism in here it seems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hairy, Italian, cmon sometimes your block head doesn't think Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 4, 2017 Author Share Posted October 4, 2017 4 hours ago, amarshall said: Same spot http://im-1.msw.ms/md/image.php?id=181012&type=PHOTOLAB&resize_type=PHOTO_FULL Looks like the lead-in to Hawaii-Five-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 4, 2017 Author Share Posted October 4, 2017 FL Panhandle is likely going to deal with cat 2 or 3 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: FL Panhandle is likely going to deal with cat 2 or 3 hurricane. If this were to hit as a Cat 2 or 3 launching a direct hit on Destin/Fort Walton/Panama City it would cause a lot more lasting damage than Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 4, 2017 Author Share Posted October 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said: If this were to hit as a Cat 2 or 3 launching a direct hit on Destin/Fort Walton/Panama City it would cause a lot more lasting damage than Irma. I know Steve is going to beat my head in, but Irma wasn't anything too devastating for any single area of FL....it just provided minor-moderate damage over such a wide envelope that it was still very costly. Akin to a forecast KU that didn't phase right, and gave all of the northeast 6-12", as opposed to clocking sne with a focused 1-3', as forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 4, 2017 Author Share Posted October 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said: If this were to hit as a Cat 2 or 3 launching a direct hit on Destin/Fort Walton/Panama City it would cause a lot more lasting damage than Irma. I could see an Opal like deal....it is likely going to be weakening at LF, too, but the one caveat being that this may be getting steered to the NE by a ridge, as opposed to interacting with a tough....so it may not "collapse"...dry air entrainment from the continent should ensure that a cat 3 is the upped bounds for LF intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know Steve is going to beat my head in, but Irma wasn't anything too devastating for any single area of FL....it just provided minor-moderate damage over such a wide envelope that it was still very costly. Outside of the immediate Naples/Marco Island areas and the lowly populated, low income Middle Keys minor damage is the legacy of Irma in Florida. Katrina and Wilma were much worse in the 6th NYC boros of SE Florida. If Nate pans out the tv images will be much more dramatic with half the amount of tv crews camping out along the redneck Riviera which is probably the nicest stretch of beach in America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 4, 2017 Author Share Posted October 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said: Outside of the immediate Naples/Marco Island areas and the lowly populated, low income Middle Keys minor damage is the legacy of Irma in Florida. Katrina and Wilma were much worse in the 6th NYC boros of SE Florida. If Nate pans out the tv images will be much more dramatic with half the amount of tv crews camping out along the redneck Riviera which is probably the nicest stretch of beach in America. I know some people had their lives impacted in a huge way, but the US dodged the bullet with Irma as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know some people had their lives impacted in a huge way, but the US dodged the bullet with Irma as far as I'm concerned. I believe we are long overdue to have a major hurricane with CAT 3+ winds strike a major population center. New Orleans barely gusted to CAT 2 in Katrina, Wilma had CAT 2 gusts in MIA, PBI, and FLL, Charleston only gusted to CAT 2 in Hugo, and I don't believe downtown Miami gusted much above 100 in Andrew. I just wish we had hit the trifecta and dodged the same bullets we dodged with Matthew and Irma, and dodged the worst bullet of them all on November 8th 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 4, 2017 Author Share Posted October 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, HarveyLeonardFan said: I believe we are long overdue to have a major hurricane with CAT 3+ winds strike a major population center. New Orleans barely gusted to CAT 2 in Katrina, Wilma had CAT 2 gusts in MIA, PBI, and FLL, Charleston only gusted to CAT 2 in Hugo, and I don't believe downtown Miami gusted much above 100 in Andrew. I just wish we had hit the trifecta and dodged the same bullets we dodged with Matthew and Irma, and dodged the worst bullet of them all on November 8th 2016. This is the thing....there are obviously a plethora of other impacts associated with a hurricane, so many people get defensive when its pointed out that it could have been much worse. But its the truth...it doesn't mean you are marginalizing those who were severely affected. As bad as these storms were, none of them have dealt a blow the magnitude of what will happen eventually. The levee breaking was an externality of Katrina...if that didn't give, the system would have been destructive, but not catastrophic for NO. The surge to the east was still catastrophic because that had already been generated prior to the collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted October 4, 2017 Share Posted October 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is the thing....there are obviously a plethora of other impacts associated with a hurricane, so many people get defensive when its pointed out that it could have been much worse. But its the truth...it doesn't mean you are marginalizing those who were severely affected. As bad as these storms were, none of them have dealt a blow that magnitude of what will happen eventually. The levee breaking was an externality of Katrina...if that didn't give, the system would have destructive, but not catastrophic for NO. The surge to the east was still catastrophic because that had already been generated prior to the collapse. I drove from Pensacola west to NOLA several weeks post Katrina. Most of the damage I encountered in Pensacola was from Ivan. But as I was driing west if I wasn't specifically seeking out hurricane damage I barely would've known a hurricane had just hit until I reached about 10 miles west of Mobile. And as soon as I hit Pascagoula you could tell how bad it was and it was increasingly nuclear as I hit Gulfport and Biloxi, and ten miles west of the casinos the damage was as bad as the damage I saw in south dade after Andrew. Once I reached NOLA the damage was underwhelming compared to what I had seen in MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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