weathafella Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: I totally agree with ya... Do you think that if Maria did get as far NW as the 12Z GFS suggests that some of the moisture could get entrained in the frontal system or even a PRE this far north? You guys got some good rain down in SNE but the surface is dry up here. Would be nice just to get some rain, somehow from Maria. Gene, BOS had less than 0.5 from Jose. We're at 2.15 for the entire month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 14 minutes ago, weathafella said: Gene, BOS had less than 0.5 from Jose. We're at 2.15 for the entire month. It's been almost 14 days since last rain and Aug was dry . Wet first half of summer long gone . Welcome to La Niña. Same as last year. Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It's been almost 14 days since last rain and Aug was dry . Wet first half of summer long gone . Welcome to La Niña. Same as last year. Dry BDL/BOS almost equivalent qpf for September. It's been dry. Nina autumns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the 155mph lf intensity in PR is BS...more like 130 with 150+ gusts. Multiple reports of debarked trees, last radar scans showing winds up to 175, no doubt in my mind . These winds were at the radar site so roughly 300 feet off the ground, there are 190 plus pixels in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 4 hours ago, dendrite said: Lee was named before Maria. 2 hours ago, ma blizzard said: remnants of Lee stayed intact long enough to redevelop hence keeping the original name I never even saw Lee as a named system until yesterday. Must not have lasted too long in the beginning. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Meteorologists on the ground in SE PR say F3/4 damage. F3 starts at 157mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 2 hours ago, weathafella said: BDL/BOS almost equivalent qpf for September. It's been dry. Nina autumns. Winters too . Just gotta hope it's cold enough when precip events come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Winters too . Just gotta hope it's cold enough when precip events come Winters can be quite snowy. See 1995-96/2010-11. Then again there's 2001-02 and 2011-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: GFS just crushing all other models in the 3-5 day location. Impressive. This product is confusing to me. I realize I'm not the brightest bulb in the usership around here ... but that looks contradictory: the number 1 model has the greatest error? What am I missing - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 Heh... sort of. Maria could make a run up the coast but the issue is the spatial orientation of that trough amplitude set to truncate this present heat dome later in the week. As that trough smashes in and usurps the pattern toward one more akin to Autumn, it's morphology is longitudinally biased - meaning...it's flat. It's got a lot of amplitude in it; one can see that in the native velocities scooting around the periphery of it's gradient rampart... but, since it is wide open the steering fields on the front/E side of it are oriented more SW or WSW even... If that trough come down with more meridional flow (more S-N on the eastern front side) it would accelerate Maria N as opposed to hard right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 59 minutes ago, weathafella said: Winters can be quite snowy. See 1995-96/2010-11. Then again there's 2001-02 and 2011-12. And can be dry winters too. Ninas are very worrisome in many facets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 The hurricane model HWRF gets winds on the NC outer banks up to 35 kt at its closest pass, whereas the HMON gets winds there up to 50 kt for many hours as it stalls about 100-125 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And can be dry winters too. Ninas are very worrisome in many facets I think a strong Nina is trouble. Weak is probably good, moderate a crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Multiple reports of debarked trees, last radar scans showing winds up to 175, no doubt in my mind . These winds were at the radar site so roughly 300 feet off the ground, there are 190 plus pixels in there. I knew you'd reply. The highest image that I had seen was like 155mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 23, 2017 Author Share Posted September 23, 2017 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Meteorologists on the ground in SE PR say F3/4 damage. F3 starts at 157mph No one is doubting 157mph gusts. I'd like to see some more solid evidence of 175mph gusts at ground level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2017 Share Posted September 23, 2017 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No one is doubting 157mph gusts. I'd like to see some more solid evidence of 175mph gusts at ground level. I would like to see proof there wasn't. proof either way or we can't be sure but I have seem a lot of proof there was.The last recon was 2 hrs before LF, before the eye went into an insane gyration. That last radar image was an increase of pixels of 20 mph higher than a half hour earlier. Something extreme went on when that eye went into an out of balance spin. I am sure this will be intensely studied for years. Bottom line is we will never know what sustained were, not that it matters when damage assessments are done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 14 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: I would like to see proof there wasn't. proof either way or we can't be sure but I have seem a lot of proof there was.The last recon was 2 hrs before LF, before the eye went into an insane gyration. That last radar image was an increase of pixels of 20 mph higher than a half hour earlier. Something extreme went on when that eye went into an out of balance spin. I am sure this will be intensely studied for years. Bottom line is we will never know what sustained were, not that it matters when damage assessments are done. That is asinine and not how science works. Everything you have listed, such as an increase radar pixels, is pretty anecdotal. We don't assume the most extreme outcome given nebulous evidence. So we shouldn't make efforts to correctly discern the LF intensity because PR sustained such bad damage, anyway? Great- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Why does it matter? What's at stake in that discussion/argument? ..funny... one thing I've discovered over the years of this social media hobby is that if/when one 'gets into it' with some voice in the amorphous chaotic, pistol blazin' din of the new Wild West, the Internet, you are going to be about as successful at drilling your point into the opposing entity's skull as any imaginary bullet. ...in the first place that futility... but secondly, maybe the question should be, what in the f is either person even getting at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is asinine and not how science works. Everything you have listed, such as an increase radar pixels, is pretty anecdotal. We don't assume the most extreme outcome given nebulous evidence. So we shouldn't make efforts to correctly discern the LF intensity because PR sustained such bad damage, anyway? Great- Just showed the evidence that was presented by people who were there and some radar evidence. Didnt need to respond like that. I believe the evidence contradicts your assumptions made from your basement PC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Why does it matter? What's at stake in that discussion/argument? ..funny... one thing I've discovered over the years of this social media hobby is that if/when one 'gets into it' with some voice in the amorphous chaotic, pistol blazin' din of the new Wild West, the Internet, you are going to be about as successful at drilling your point into the opposing entity's skull as any imaginary bullet. ...in the first place that futility... but secondly, maybe the question should be, what in the f is either person even getting at? Discussion of possible intensity of a hurricane on a weather board? Oh man probably should be discussing posters psychological makeup, my bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Just showed the evidence that was presented by people who were there and some radar evidence. Didnt need to respond like that. I believe the evidence contradicts your assumptions made from your basement PC Two hours is an eternity within the context of a rapid intensity changes. I understand that you feel strongly as though it must have been intensifying upon landfall because of how you perceived the last radar and satellite images prior to landfall, but structural changes are complex, and sat/rad presentation is not always congruent with current intensity. This is inconspicuously anecdotal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 53 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Discussion of possible intensity of a hurricane on a weather board? Oh man probably should be discussing posters psychological makeup, my bad Yea, I'm not sure what his malfunction is. I think its pretty important that we strive for accurate in the meteorological archives. Why do we develop intensity scales? Planning and safety....don't inaccurate intensity assessments undermine said motive? By the way, its a weather board, dude- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 Probably my last real Maria post: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'm not sure what his malfunction is. I think its pretty important that we strive for accurate in the meteorological archives. Why do we develop intensity scales? Planning and safety....don't inaccurate intensity assessments undermine said motive? By the way, its a weather board, dude- "malfunction" ..haha..nice. Does not compute - no...i just was not sure at the time what the point of that contention was, but if it's ironing out the intensity of Maria... ...well, nothing either of you presented does any iota to clarify anything. not really - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24, 2017 Author Share Posted September 24, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: "malfunction" ..haha..nice. Does not compute - no...i just was not sure at the time what the point of that contention was, but if it's ironing out the intensity of Maria... ...well, nothing either of you presented does any iota to clarify anything. not really - Thanks for invalidating our NOAA credentials...there was some question there. The good news is that we are posting in a tropical thread on a weather discussion forum, so they may let it slip- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 19 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: This product is confusing to me. I realize I'm not the brightest bulb in the usership around here ... but that looks contradictory: the number 1 model has the greatest error? What am I missing - No, look for the lowest value since this is mean absolute error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 16 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: I would like to see proof there wasn't. proof either way or we can't be sure but I have seem a lot of proof there was.The last recon was 2 hrs before LF, before the eye went into an insane gyration. That last radar image was an increase of pixels of 20 mph higher than a half hour earlier. Something extreme went on when that eye went into an out of balance spin. I am sure this will be intensely studied for years. Bottom line is we will never know what sustained were, not that it matters when damage assessments are done. haha... based upon this, we can estimate winds of around 150mph during the march blowdown last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 24 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said: haha... based upon this, we can estimate winds of around 150mph during the march blowdown last winter. Hardwoods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 Doppler SJU ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 24, 2017 Share Posted September 24, 2017 That should buff out...lol. In all seriousness, at least it's still standing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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