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Tropical Season 2017


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7 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Last few runs of the GFS and today's 12z EURO bring Maria really close to NJ/NE type landfall. The EURO was fun it kind of used Jose's remnants as a pendulum and closes in on landfall before escaping NE. Tonight's 00z GFS was very close with a still very strong Maria at making landfall in NJ. Between the hours of 150 & 168 hours Maria makes a fairly sharp NW turn before escaping E. I know we just got teased with Jose and it is very far out there, but I think this could end up being a close call. 

I'm sure there's been a lot of history in this thread since last night ...  but, I would bet against - I know you said "close" ...not disputing that much.  But if there is any deeper sentiment for an impact more directly, in the smoldering context of your post there, ... I'm hedging against that possibility.  

I also realize you didn't ask me ...but, I also often use random posts as excuse to cleave my own insights forcibly into the fray :)

Anyway, we are in a pattern?  I don't see that pattern significantly modulating during the next 7 days.  Beyond that, autumn pours forth ... but that's another discussion.  As part of a base-line forecasting philosophy, it stands to reason that events inside relatively fixed patterns will tend to repeat themselves until such time as said pattern is significantly (enough) altered.  

Newton's First Law incarnate really...  The simplest thing to say?  I could see Maria doing something similar to Jose.

Let me necessarily qualify those remarks:   "I could see," is a far and away distinction from 'Hey dichhead Met, you f'ed up our party on the EC with ur 'totally wrong' taint - u azzhole!'

Which I am anyway - agreed.  But, please don't through gobs of subversive derision, or more direct trolling efforts because I'm saying this, specifically. I don't "look" for storm boner one-eyed monster impact fantasies to become reality; I actually more appreciate the challenge of getting to the right ideas.

The atmosphere could compose a subtle circulation augmentations for the "intent" of turning this vision into a blunder, though.. (we used to say, "The forecast wasn't bad!  The atmosphere  just didn't cooperate)  The trough near the end of the middle range heralds in what I "think" may be a fairly robust either A ... pattern re-insertion (back toward the punishing persistence of the unrelenting stop heat in the NE summer pattern we were Dickensian treated too..) or, B ... asserting a new pattern altogether that may merely be similar to that.  Most importantly ..said trough could come in steeper.  If so, it may induce Maria's acquaintance with the westerlies on a more northerly (express) route, as opposed to the current tenor to keep the flow flattish and thus sending it to England at ludicrous speed.  Either way ...Maria (I think) has a chance to really be more of an ass-hauler as opposed to these laze faire N drifters imbibing God's urin in the shelf waters S of LI; particularly late in the period.. Flat or tilted, ..it should be inside an actual trough like a coke-straw either way.

 

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It obviously could change, being 180 hr out, but I'm seeing a PNA ridge show up consistently on guidance around that time frame. I think that feature alone would argue for a significantly different outcome than what we're seeing now with Jose, with the massive troughing over the west coast. 

I know I sound like a broken record with this, but the further west he gets before the recurve north the much greater the chance for an east coast hit. 75W is a critical BM, based on climo. The western side of the NHC's current cone takes her there. We'll have to see if the WAR flexes its muscles again. Either way, between now and the next 72 hrs, we'll have to see where she ends up relative to the current forecast track, and should be able to measurably increase/decrease the threat risk up here based on this outcome alone.

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9/20/2017   8:20 AM   MA-DK-5   West Tisbury 2.9 N  1.75 0.0 NA MA Dukes  View  Classic | New  
9/20/2017   7:00 AM   MA-DK-8   Vineyard Haven 2.1 WSW  1.51 NA NA MA Dukes  View  Classic | New  
9/20/2017   7:00 AM   MA-DK-2   Vineyard Haven 0.8 WSW  1.36 NA NA MA Dukes  View  Classic | New  
9/20/2017   7:00 AM   MA-PL-31   Bridgewater 1.8 SE  1.34 NA NA MA Plymouth  View  Classic | New  
9/20/2017   8:20 AM   MA-PL-17   Plympton 0.9 NNE  1.32 NA NA MA Plymouth  View  Classic | New  
9/20/2017   6:00 AM   MA-PL-6   Middleborough 5.5 E  1.21 NA NA MA Plymouth  View  Classic | New  
9/20/2017   7:00 AM   MA-PL-33   Plymouth 0.6 SSW  1.17 NA NA MA Plymouth  View  Classic | New  
9/20/2017   7:00 AM   MA-BR-30   Taunton 3.9 N  1.09 0.0 0.0 MA Bristol
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