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Tropical Season 2017


40/70 Benchmark

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

There are still 60,000 on PR without power, this is going to be devastating

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2017091812_54_27878_379.png

That 185mph is in the El Yunkque National forest just south of San Juan.  I've been there.  A beautiful tropical paradise with 3000 foot mountains.  Here is a map of the population density of PR.  Mostly the northeast part of the island around San Juan.  If the current track held that would put greater San Juan in the right front quad with a screaming east wind off the Atlantic.  Worst case scenario.  Currently Maria has a small core so still a chance that the worst could miss.  I guess eyewall replacement cycles could expand the wind-field.  Maybe one of the Lesser Antille islands will disrupt the core but there is plenty of time for recovery.  As it looks right now could be a bad, bad situation...

PR.jpg

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22 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I hope they bust.  As far as the maps being poor, I agree that in FL the Euro pooped over itself.  But it did well over Barbuda etc and the weather.us maps reflected that

I think part of the problem was that the euro was over the water just west of the coastline, hence stronger winds.

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I bet this one ends up being the strongest of the season...just not sustaining strength with the same duration as Irma..

Fwiw - the last 4 hours worth of positions ...if placed along a rular looks to me as though it misses PR by a pube NE...

But, heh, we'd be talking 20 or 30 miles tops.  A mere jog back left now would pretty much cancel that out - so it's probably not worth much until something like that persists through dawn. 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I bet this one ends up being the strongest of the season...just not sustaining strength with the same duration as Irma..

Fwiw - the last 4 hours worth of positions ...if placed along a rular looks to me as though it misses PR by a pube NE...

But, heh, we'd be talking 20 or 30 miles tops.  A mere jog back left now would pretty much cancel that out - so it's probably not worth much until something like that persists through dawn. 

TT...  we have talked about landmasses weakening systems slightly and they never seem to get back to RI like they were.  Maybe Dominica's tall mountains might do that?  Probably too small but there are some high peaks.

What a season.  Harvey at Cat 4.  Irma a Cat 5.  Jose a Cat 4.  Maria a Cat 5.  Just incredible after so many years without big majors... If Maria goes right over PR,  wow what a catastrophe.  Lets hope the weakness left behind by the ghost of Jose keeps Maria OTS but that is a week off...

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I bet this one ends up being the strongest of the season...just not sustaining strength with the same duration as Irma..

Fwiw - the last 4 hours worth of positions ...if placed along a rular looks to me as though it misses PR by a pube NE...

But, heh, we'd be talking 20 or 30 miles tops.  A mere jog back left now would pretty much cancel that out - so it's probably not worth much until something like that persists through dawn. 

Pressure wise, maybe...but its not hitting 185mph.

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Per Rick Knabb on Twitter, 2017 is the second hurricane season on record to produce at least two Category 5 landfalls with 2007 having two (Dean and Felix). However, at least four more locations already took a direct hit from Category 5: British Virgin Islands, Saint Martin, Barbuda, and Cuba. Add Dominica to the list after tonight.

Just unreal what we're seeing in the Caribbean last few weeks.

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Man, I usually do not like to pull any punches, and will make a pretty definitive call relatively early in the game....but Maria's future is a mess, and I'm not at all sure yet.

I favor OTS a bit, but I could see Maria pulling an Irma and just blowing Jose off like Tip on a Saturday night at the bar-

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/nor-easter-jose-to-impact-especially.html

Focusing more on Caribbean at this point, but will go into more detail on US potential later this week.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I usually do not like to pull any punches, and will make a pretty definitive call relatively early in the game....but Maria's future is a mess, and I'm not at all sure yet.

I favor OTS a bit, but I could see Maria pulling an Irma and just and just blowing Jose off like Tip on a Saturday night at the bar-

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/nor-easter-jose-to-impact-especially.html

I think (and it's a mildly educated guess) that Miami to HSE might frame any potential US mainland hit.

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