Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: You're buying the NAM? Hump the model with the worst ya know, just like that Euro ens which he said we like the 45-55mph gusts, even though his mean was 36 and the 45-55 were 90th percentile stuff , ya know 1 in 10 chance. Nam is a big hit but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 19 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: You're buying the NAM? Who isn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I guess it's still broken.ET transition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 I'm not buying the NAM. Know off about 5kts on those winds/gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, USCG RS said: 39 minutes ago, Hazey said: I guess it's still broken. ET transition It's broken. There isn't a single 12z model that I can see that's within 15mb of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 It's broken. There isn't a single 12z model that I can see that's within 15mb of that.I'm not saying it's definitely going to get that low, but he's already interacting with the ULL s/w at h5 and a rather weak jet. Combine that with the baroclynic leaf already beginning to present and I can see this deepening some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Wow at Maria. Day 9 just S of HAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Who isn't? thought you said 24 hrs ago wagons way east and I won't be surprised if we wake up and its Cape Cod only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: thought you said 24 hrs ago wagons way east and I won't be surprised if we wake up and its Cape Cod only? He's keeping his options wide open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 This is a hybrid already... but, obviously these phases are not fixated - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can certainly envision some of these " where did this wind come from" posts and " how did my downspout get blown off" type stuff. Or, how did my plastic lawn chair blow over and land a few feet away from where it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Wow at Maria. Day 9 just S of HAT. Parks it off the NC coast for a solid day and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 47 minutes ago, PeabodyFlood said: Parks it off the NC coast for a solid day and a half. might as well bank on it...year of the stalling canes so it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: A bunch of friends and Co Workers lived in PR during Hugo, have said that they never want to live through another like that. My relatives took a direct hit from Hugo's eye north of Charleston, SC. It was an awful night for them and they do not wish to relive that ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, WxBlue said: My relatives took a direct hit from Hugo's eye north of Charleston, SC. It was an awful night for them and they do not wish to relive that ever again. If I remember right Puerto Rico mostly missed Hugo too with it only clipping the NE side. This may take a more direct path over it although it's too early to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 12Z shifts Maria about 350 miles west from 0Z. Obviously until we know what will happen to Jose's remains we will see more shifts. One thing that seems obvious. This will not be a fast moving hurricane without something to yank it north or northwest. I wonder how long it takes the ocean water temps off of the SE to fully recharge after Irma and Jose churned things up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Euro with another close in fail forecast. Decent jump east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro with another close in fail forecast. Decent jump east. Always expect the last minute bump east on these when there's no good trough. I feel like it never fails. Should still be pretty stormy though...esp for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Always expect the last minute bump east on these when there's no good trough. I feel like it never fails. Should still be pretty stormy though...esp for eastern areas. It's been the same theme with the euro with storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Looks on top of the GFS thru 12z Wed. Only difference is that it's 18mb weaker. 973mb vs 955mb for GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Looks on top of the GFS thru 12z Wed. Only difference is that it's 18mb weaker. 973mb vs 955mb for GFS Yeah sell GFS intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Man barely any rain even for BOS. Continue fading east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Shaved off rains big time near the Cape too. I do wonder if it will be that dry as this is loaded with moisture, but unlike other systems like Irene...the atmosphere ahead of it is sort of barotropic....no real frontal features to help concentrate overrunning rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Ut oh he lost Ryan, sorry for Mehing this so much, just been there done this with these type of setups, Cape should still get a good blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ut oh he lost Ryan, sorry for Mehing this so much, just been there done this with these type of setups, Cape should still get a good blast Epic rotten tree damage incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 WTF, that escalated quickly, shows why intensity forecasting is still in the 1950s, yesterday this was barely a cane on forecasts when Snow goose said it wouldn't be a major in the Leewards, Dominica, a poor country to start going to feel the wrath, lots of mountains too so epic flooding. PR is by far the biggest target and concern, last 5 was 1928 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 What a fuji dance on the euro with maria and jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a fuji dance on the euro with maria and jose. You eventually get your epic rainfall from Jose. Just happens like a week later than thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: You eventually get your epic rainfall from Jose. Just happens like a week later than thought. LOL, yeah I'll hold my breath for that solution. Jose is the pest that porks us and sends Maria OTS. Ray loves it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 18, 2017 Share Posted September 18, 2017 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Ut oh he lost Ryan, sorry for Mehing this so much, just been there done this with these type of setups, Cape should still get a good blast lol. Whole lot a meh going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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