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Tropical Season 2017


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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

While I would agree this is not worth chasing, this will be/is a non tropical storm when it gets abeam of us with plenty of wind (gale force probably) on the NW side.   A nor'easter basically.

Jerry,  I wonder if a quicker transistion to ET will help spread out the windfield a bit more than foretasted.  A 978mb wintertime low passing over the benchmark  would sure give metro Boston a good nor easter.  With leaves on the trees this would have a bigger impact.

Can you please get a rotting rainband or two up here.  My lawn definitely could use a drink!

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Jose Advisory Number  53
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 71.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Watch Hill, Rhode
Island, to Hull, Massachusetts, including Block Island, Martha's
Vineyard, and Nantucket.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Watch Hill to Hull
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket
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It's worth noting that Florida State's Cyclone Phase page kept Jose barely symmetric and warm-cored the whole time using GFS and HWRF, but I'm having some doubts since Jose already lost the symmetric feature. Should be fun watching that cold front move into the area and interacting with Jose. 

Jose_core.png

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11 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

It's worth noting that Florida State's Cyclone Phase page kept Jose barely symmetric and warm-cored the whole time using GFS and HWRF, but I'm having some doubts since Jose already lost the symmetric feature. Should be fun watching that cold front move into the area and interacting with Jose. 

Jose_core.png

I agree. I wonder if the GFS products are biased too much on the tropical side.

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13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I have been trying unsuccessfully to find the strongest hurricane to ever cross Puerto Rico.  Maria could be really, really devastating depending on the exact placement of the eyewall.  Does anyone have a quick link of the strongest storms to cross the island?

NOAA has an excellent website of historic hurricane tracks that you can narrow down based on the land area and the intensity.

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

For 65 nautical miles radius from San Juan, Puerto Rico has been hit by Category 4+ directly in 1899, 1928, and 1932. The storm in 1928 landfalled as a Category 5. Hurricane Hugo (1989) was the strongest to hit during satellite era, landfalling as a high-end Category 3.

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Thanks WxBlue for that PR info.  Very interesting.  So the last high end Cat 3 was 28 years ago.  Wow...

I was just looking at the new 12Z GFS that is coming out.  I only have it to 36 hours on WxBell.  It's interesting that the GFS has the pressure falling from 974 to 953mb at  hour 36.  Position seems similar but the pressure is much lower than at 6Z.  What does the GFS see to make this happen.  It's  going over cooler water.  Thoughts?

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35 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

NOAA has an excellent website of historic hurricane tracks that you can narrow down based on the land area and the intensity.

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

For 65 nautical miles radius from San Juan, Puerto Rico has been hit by Category 4+ directly in 1899, 1928, and 1932. The storm in 1928 landfalled as a Category 5. Hurricane Hugo (1989) was the strongest to hit during satellite era, landfalling as a high-end Category 3.

A bunch of friends and Co Workers lived in PR during Hugo, have said that they never want to live through another like that.

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