Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Tropical Season 2017


40/70 Benchmark

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.9k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Stupid question here, coming from someone who is NOT educated in meteorology...... I've been told that the NAVGEM is not considered a reliable model for tropical systems (for anything - track or intensity). What is the viability of the CMC with regard to tropical weather systems? Is it considered at all reliable? I'm just noticing that the current NAVGEM and CMC forecasts are very similar for Marie. So I'm wondering if I should not pay much attention to the CMC, or if the similarity is just coincidence at this point. If this question should be asked elsewhere, please forgive (and redirect me).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, LikesNaturesFury said:

Stupid question here, coming from someone who is NOT educated in meteorology...... I've been told that the NAVGEM is not considered a reliable model for tropical systems (for anything - track or intensity). What is the viability of the CMC with regard to tropical weather systems? Is it considered at all reliable? I'm just noticing that the current NAVGEM and CMC forecasts are very similar for Marie. So I'm wondering if I should not pay much attention to the CMC, or if the similarity is just coincidence at this point. If this question should be asked elsewhere, please forgive (and redirect me).

Gem is slightly more skillful than the NAVGEM, but as a whole they are not skilled at track or intensity forecasts for hurricanes.  You're best best is to use the ECMWF, UKMET, and the TVCN (ensemble bias corrected consensus).  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, LikesNaturesFury said:

Stupid question here, coming from someone who is NOT educated in meteorology...... I've been told that the NAVGEM is not considered a reliable model for tropical systems (for anything - track or intensity). What is the viability of the CMC with regard to tropical weather systems? Is it considered at all reliable? I'm just noticing that the current NAVGEM and CMC forecasts are very similar for Marie. So I'm wondering if I should not pay much attention to the CMC, or if the similarity is just coincidence at this point. If this question should be asked elsewhere, please forgive (and redirect me).

In general the Euro outperforms everyone. At 5 days it's the Euro, gap, Ukie/GFS, gap, CMC. At 3 days they are more bunched up (one would hope) with the Euro, Ukie, GFS, gap, CMC.

Also see the post above for more tidbits.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

On to Maria

Looks like  Jose is  really going to  help keeping Maria for making a US landfall.   With the loop thing Jose it creates the weakness in the high so instead of Maria staying way south and heading into the general direction of the US the storm will head north and probably OTS.  All conjecture so far out.    What is more concerning is a RI with Maria and then a direct slam into PR as a Cat 3+.  PR has 3 million people so if the inner core came directly over the country the overall devastation and loss of life would be far greater than small islands like Barbuda St Martin or the VI.  Watch Maria carefully over the next 24 hours. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not bad. Eyewall into Coney Island?

Funny thing is even if that happened it still wouldn't be a big deal with the way it's forecast to weaken to 65 mph at our latitude.  Landfall on Coney Island at 65 mph was what Irene did and it wasn't a big deal until you got up to Vermont, which was where most of the damage was done (inland flooding.)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Damn Maria has a tight core already and radar is confirming microwave 

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

nhc 5 day track of this storm and intensity forecast show this thing making a mess of the islands and keeping strength into the end of the period.

I did a historical search 200NM from the day 5 forecast point for majors in Sept.. Some decent storms on that list.

maria-tracks.jpg

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

nhc 5 day track of this storm and intensity forecast show this thing making a mess of the islands and keeping strength into the end of the period.

I did a historical search 200NM from the day 5 forecast point for majors in Sept.. Some decent storms on that list.

maria-tracks.jpg

 

 

That site is super cool and user friendy. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

What's PRE?

Preliminary Rain Event

Someone can correct me but IIRC as the cyclone gains latitude there's very often a ton of rain generated to the north and northeast of the storm as it transitions to ET.....somyou get a bunch of rain out ahead of it and then the actual TS impacts.....like a double whammy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Preliminary Rain Event

Someone can correct me but IIRC as the cyclone gains latitude there's very often a ton of rain generated to the north and northeast of the storm as it transitions to ET.....somyou get a bunch of rain out ahead of it and then the actual TS impacts.....like a double whammy

Technicality: Predecessor rain event

You have the general idea though. What you're getting is an enhanced area of rain separate from the main rain shield but connected to the TC via an enhancing upper level jet. 

Basic ingredients are trof to the west of the TC, shortwave ridging just ahead of it. RRQ of upper level jet nearby. Low level front on the periphery of tropical moisture. Meaning that zonal flow, trof to the east, and/or low level ridging are all bad for PREs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Technicality: Predecessor rain event

You have the general idea though. What you're getting is an enhanced area of rain separate from the main rain shield but connected to the TC via an enhancing upper level jet. 

Basic ingredients are trof to the west of the TC, shortwave ridging just ahead of it. RRQ of upper level jet nearby. Low level front on the periphery of tropical moisture. Meaning that zonal flow, trof to the east, and/or low level ridging are all bad for PREs.

Thanks....I knew I may have had that first word wrong....thanks for the technical setup....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...