CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 OTS for Maria it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The LLJ really gets going on the NW side though. So, it matters where the low tracks. Something further west may bring down your gutter again. Yeah I know Ginx is mehing this bad... but all models for days have ripped a good LLJ on the backside. Watch for some mixing on the backside as that LLJ goes. This is already starting to look a bit ET so I don't think we can totally discount some NW side impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Maria pulling something like Jose is doing. Even H5 is similar. Looks like Hurricane Felix circa 1995.....lurk off of NC, then fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: The LLJ really gets going on the NW side though. So, it matters where the low tracks. Something further west may bring down your gutter again. NW winds due to frictional effects tend to be meh. Irene's eastern side spun up a lot of damage in ECT. I would rather be on the west side anyday. But did tune and run the generator today, what's your back up power plan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Pretty meh on the rain on the gfsSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: NW winds due to frictional effects tend to be meh. Irene's eastern side spun up a lot of damage in ECT. I would rather be on the west side anyday. But did tune and run the generator today, what's your back up power plan? Well pressure rises and a little daytime heating can bring it down though. In any case, something to watch. Curious what the euro does. I still worry about those east ticks...but I also did not expect some of the solutions from 00z on last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: Yeah I know Ginx is mehing this bad... but all models for days have ripped a good LLJ on the backside. Watch for some mixing on the backside as that LLJ goes. This is already starting to look a bit ET so I don't think we can totally discount some NW side impacts. Good luck. Not mehing just looking at soundings, gusts to 45 seem likely if the GFS is right. But let's not start the hype machine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 No sensible impacts that we don't experience quite frequently. The most important take away for me regarding Jose is that is fishes Maria with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Good luck. Not mehing just looking at soundings, gusts to 45 seem likely if the GFS is right. But let's not start the hype machine I'll save that for the NWS when the TS watches get posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 12z jma looks like a good hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Canadian very different on Maria has it going into SCSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like Hurricane Felix circa 1995.....lurk off of NC, then fish. Talk dirty to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No sensible impacts that we don't experience quite frequently. The most important take away for me regarding Jose is that is fishes Maria with it. Looking at H5, I would say the trough in SE Canada causes a near miss here. The pattern is similar to what we have now. Kind of funny...but you know all the crap that can happen in 10 days too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I'll save that for the NWS when the TS watches get posted 45mph gusts are tropical storm force, so that would be congruent with his scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: 45mph gusts are tropical storm force, so that would be congruent with his scenario. But the watch is only issued for sustained TS winds. Anyway I was referring to the "hype" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: But the watch is only issued for sustained TS winds. Anyway I was referring to the "hype" Ok, 55mph gusts on the south shore....splitting hairs imo....more than I even care to at 48-72 lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Hey as someone who begs for one of those Men In Black pens to erase the memory of the doldrums of September....these last few weeks have been great weenie time to at least entertain and forecast. Harvey and Irma were definitely satiating to a point. I'll take some interesting effects from Jose and another threat to the East Coast from Maria, anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: I'll save that for the NWS when the TS watches get posted Excuse me for not being very impressed in my hood by the Big L on the map. I should be hyping this? I meh because of data nothing else. If it comes closer and less sheared lopsided I will jump in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Can I get the Ukie solution in the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Excuse me for not being very impressed in my hood by the Big L on the map. I should be hyping this? I meh because of data nothing else. If it comes closer and less sheared lopsided I will jump in. you do you man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, CT Rain said: you do you man Married, Cheating on myself is still cheating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Steve, that was my point. Any jog NW and guttersaurus rex vists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 7 hours ago, Bostonseminole said: Just to add Ray, he’s not the only poster on this board that post “egregiously incorrect posts” and yet those are let to post away. Treatment should be equal not matter how senior a poster may be. Fair point there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Fair point there. Kevin does it knowingly and he does take $hit for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Kevin does it knowingly and he does take $hit for it. Yeah he does it on purpose, which may even be worse sometimes haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Couple of thoughts. How in the heck can the models like the 12Z GFS have Jose as a 968mb cane up this way? Pressure is not that low now and the storm would be slowly moving over much cooler water south of New England. I know GFS is over blown on pressure. If the pressure is too low then the wind fields would be too high.... About Maria. Until we know what Jose does after the swipe by us there is no way to forecast Maria. Does the high build back in if Jose departs ENE? Does Jose do that loop and rot causing the weakness and having Maria have a corridor to travel? After midweek it will become much clearer on Maria. Also how Maria interacts with the big islands will make a huge difference. It's all fun to watch as long as no one gets hurt.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Nothing wrong with some rains and gusty winds for a day. Breaks up the monotony. GFS just rots offshore too so would be problematic for coastal areas if there is sustained onshore flow piling up water in the Bays. Wild run too with Maria making a similar path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Steve, that was my point. Any jog NW and guttersaurus rex vists. Hope not, replacing a roof , having rain flood the attic and living room putting in a new electrical supply and being without power for ten days because of a broken "gutter" sucked. Not to mention the 61 K of damage at work. And oh by the way FEMA was a joke then, hope its better now for those peeps suffering from Harvey Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hope not, replacing a roof , having rain flood the attic and living room putting in a new electrical supply and being without power for ten days because of a broken "gutter" sucked. Not to mention the 61 K of damage at work. And oh by the way FEMA was a joke then, hope its better now for those peeps suffering from Harvey Irma. 25 wet dogs running around. Pee and skid marks everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 This thing looks less tropical and most nor'easterish already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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