CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Nasty nasty on the Cape there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 With the relentless trend west now for the past 2 days, I would be surprised if the hurricane models didn't follow suit @ 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: I don't see a PRE... as those are typically many hundreds of miles away from a TC and not related to the storm's actual circulation. Still, a lopsided storm with rain well to the north with a bit of synoptic assist should be present. Hmm... really - are you talking specifically to what you are seeing on graphics and guidance output? I was only suggesting a PRE might set up based upon the classical definition of what a PRE for "recurving TCs" You're right, however, that part of the definition is hundreds of miles.. Imho, that 1000km in the definition should not be taken verbatim. Any time the column is deep with tropical moisture and that air interacts with the some sort of diffuse boundary or deformation wrt to the surrounding medium ...that doesn't "have to" be 1000km - just sayn'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: With the relentless trend west now for the past 2 days, I would be surprised if the hurricane models didn't follow suit @ 12z. 12z hurricane models have been up for a few hrs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: 12z hurricane models have been up for a few hrs now. Does that include the HWRF and the HMON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nasty nasty on the Cape there. Yeah, easily TS conditions there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Does that include the HWRF and the HMON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Hmm... really - are you talking specifically to what you are seeing on graphics and guidance output? I was only suggesting a PRE might set up based upon the classical definition of what a PRE for "recurving TCs" You're right, however, that part of the definition is hundreds of miles.. Imho, that 1000km in the definition should not be taken verbatim. Any time the column is deep with tropical moisture and that air interacts with the some sort of diffuse boundary or deformation wrt to the surrounding medium ...that doesn't "have to" be 1000km - just sayn'. Well I basically think of PRE's as rainfall events that are completely removed from a storm's circulation. For example a storm that makes landfall on FL panhandle meanwhile DC is getting epic rains. Moisture transport acting with an existing jet circulation far away from the TC. This is more the rain/wind field expanding as TC undergoes ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I guess not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Tick west on the GGEM. Probably a strong TS on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Sorry, Raul.....I think the larger issues is that whomever else you are alluding to is getting away with it. I'd call them out if I caught it- As for James......I don't know what to tell you, but the inane pots get on people's nerves during active periods...he has been here a few years, so I'm not sure why there isn't a learning curve there....or at least he should be more receptive to instructional feedback. Zero excuse for that and he's going to continue to catch hell for it, and rightfully so-It's an open weather forum where all people should feel welcomed to post not matter their abilities and not called stupid for it. I like you ray and respect how you've become a great knowledgeable poster but I hope you don't become one of those elitist posters on this board.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: It's an open weather forum where all people should feel welcomed to post not matter their abilities and not called stupid for it. I like you ray and respect how you've become a great knowledgeable poster but I hope you don't become one of those elitist posters on this board. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk But we're talking about bald faced wish casting for someone posting here >3 years and passes themselves as knowledgeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 UKMet has the stall off of NJ still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 I'll drop it guys, I love everyone here! Let's focus on Jose the beast! Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 17, 2017 Author Share Posted September 17, 2017 6 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: It's an open weather forum where all people should feel welcomed to post not matter their abilities and not called stupid for it. I like you ray and respect how you've become a great knowledgeable poster but I hope you don't become one of those elitist posters on this board. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Are all of the moderators elitist? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Ukie looks namish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: UKMet has the stall off of NJ still Happy birthday, Ryan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Do the hurricane models use some secret sauce for steering that is lacking for their globals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Looking at Jose the shear is really pushing all the moisture north and east of the center. The ragged eye has popped out but way SW of the center dense overcast. Could we infer that when Jose gets up here all the rain is going to be way, way north of the center? That could give SNE a nice soak, maybe up to me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Happy birthday, Ryan. Happy birthday Ryan! We go back to the days when you were a wide eyed (but knowledgeable already) 14 year old on mirc. You done good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Happy birthday Ryan! We go back to the days when you were a wide eyed (but knowledgeable already) 14 year old on mirc. You done good! Thanks Jerry! This is an exhausting hobby some times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 12 minutes ago, CT Rain said: UKMet has the stall off of NJ still Happy birthday Ryan, stay away from whatever kind of Jose our drunk crazy uncle is drinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Get the feeling this next two weeks might be some of the weirdest shiat we have seen model and weather wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Maria is a beast on the gfsSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Big big learning opportunity these last few weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Today's 12z GFS is one of the coolest I've seen in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Maria pulling something like Jose is doing. Even H5 is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Even with the GFS near the cape ,soundings here are pretty meh, lopsided east is best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Happy birthday ryan!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 17, 2017 Share Posted September 17, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Even with the GFS near the cape ,soundings here are pretty meh, lopsided east is best The LLJ really gets going on the NW side though. So, it matters where the low tracks. Something further west may bring down your gutter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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