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Tropical Season 2017


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I wonder what's the criteria for pulling the Watch trigger for NHC ? 

Any NHCers in here ?  

I mean, Irma was pretty certain to raise havoc along Florida's eastern Peninsula ...  From the Southern Glades to Palm Beach, the horror was to be unmatched by the conceptions of literature's finest ...

Yet, as luck would have it, intrinsic error/skill in handling these sort of atmospheric events didn't really see Irmas skip across Cuba's northern shores like a rock off a pond, dimming her momentum as she went ...then ...finally (phew) turn N to clip western portions of the Peninsula with something bad but far less than the dystopian dreams of the deviants hiding in social media... 

Through all of that saga ... what part of that aftermath leads NHC to believe that Jose is not presently worth of a Watch?  

Now, if their official criteria is merely being handled here, that's okay.  However, if they are assessing any plausible threat along the EC based on what they "think" is going to happen, I am not sure their present resume should create that level of confidence.  

Just asking -

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder what's the criteria for pulling the Watch trigger for NHC ? 

Any NHCers in here ?  

I mean, Irma was pretty certain to raise havoc along Florida's eastern Peninsula ...  From the Southern Glades to Palm Beach, the horror was to be unmatched by the conceptions of literature's finest ...

Yet, as luck would have it, intrinsic error/skill in handling these sort of atmospheric events didn't really see Irmas skip across Cuba's northern shores like a rock off a pond, dimming her momentum as she went ...then ...finally (phew) turn N to clip western portions of the Peninsula with something bad but far less than the dystopian dreams of the deviants hiding in social media... 

Through all of that saga ... what part of that aftermath leads NHC to believe that Jose is not presently worth of a Watch?  

Now, if their official criteria is merely being handled here, that's okay.  However, if they are assessing any plausible threat along the EC based on what they "think" is going to happen, I am not sure their present resume should create that level of confidence.  

Just asking -

It might be a timing thing?  Do they issue watches started at a particular number of days away? TS watches certainly would be expected soon I would think

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think it's 48 hours before the onset of tropical storm conditions. 

Yup...

Tropical Storm Watch:  An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours. 

Tropical Storm Warning:  An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area within 36 hours. 

Hurricane Watch:  An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are possible within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane watch is issued 48 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds. 

Hurricane Warning:  An announcement that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected somewhere within the specified coastal area. Because hurricane preparedness activities become difficult once winds reach tropical storm force, the hurricane warning is issued 36 hours in advance of the anticipated onset of tropical-storm-force winds.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was definitely slower vs 6z. 

Correct me if I am wrong with my thoughts.

 If it's slower, that allows the trough N of it to pass thru keeping it from kicking E some.  There's a pretty large ridge that develops behind that trough.  It's pretty close to pulling it back E as it comes N.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Correct me if I am wrong with my thoughts.

 If it's slower, that allows the trough N of it to pass thru keeping it from kicking E some.  There's a pretty large ridge that develops behind that trough.  It's pretty close to pulling it back E as it comes N.

Do you mean the trough north of Maine at hr 120 on the 12z GFS?

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