HoarfrostHubb Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Many acorns will be dislodged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 That 00z GFS run was like a weak sauce version of summer '54. 2 canes over the Cape a week apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Jose is not really doing much down there. Even with lessened shear, remains pretty disorganized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 11 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Was that Hurricane Carol? (IIRC, the last storm of Cat 3 or greater strength to make direct landfall on New England)? -- correct me if I'm wrong of course You are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: See pressure gradient Before anyone panics, here are our 2 models wind gusts at closest pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fringed Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 53 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said: Was that Hurricane Carol? (IIRC, the last storm of Cat 3 or greater strength to make direct landfall on New England)? -- correct me if I'm wrong of course Pretty sure carol was also the the first name to be retired in the Atlantic basin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Before anyone panics, here are our 2 models wind gusts at closest pass Whole lotta meh. Lawn chair flipper indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Rain probably bigger issue for now. I'm not sure they'll be much wind outside of the cape...at least for now. Obviously it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoth said: Jose is not really doing much down there. Even with lessened shear, remains pretty disorganized. It looks great this morning. Tons of convection around center and great outflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Perfect storm type impacts if offshore dilly dally and possible stall loop. New Moon and very strong currents, so much energy in the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It looks great this morning. Tons of convection around center and great outflow I believe you willed this into fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 i don't get all the posts about how boring this storm is going to be, people always bitching about boring summer weather, now we have something track and enjoy a change of pace, would be nice to get some good analysis instead of the usual OTS or meh comments.. sorry for venting.. 6Z GFS looks further east but then a follow up tropical system .. looks wet next few 10-15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said: I believe you willed this into fruition Long way to go. Could go east or west .. better than sunny and 72 for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 34 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: i don't get all the posts about how boring this storm is going to be, people always bitching about boring summer weather, now we have something track and enjoy a change of pace, would be nice to get some good analysis instead of the usual OTS or meh comments.. sorry for venting.. 6Z GFS looks further east but then a follow up tropical system .. looks wet next few 10-15 days. Well, you know how these go. Unless it's big time transitioning to extra-tropical...I'm not sure this is high impact outside of the Cape. Yes it's early, but it's wise to be level headed with this too. If this moved towards Block Island..then that would be different. Nothing much to analyze when 5-6 days away. Key to watch is ridging out to the east and making sure that actually does not weaken with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 12z hurricane models are clustered around the benchmark..and some near nantucket. A shift east vs 6z. goalposts narrowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well, you know how these go. Unless it's big time transitioning to extra-tropical...I'm not sure this is high impact outside of the Cape. Yes it's early, but it's wise to be level headed with this too. If this moved towards Block Island..then that would be different. Nothing much to analyze when 5-6 days away. Key to watch is ridging out to the east and making sure that actually does not weaken with time. Thanks Scott, I know most likely it won't be much, but that is usually what we expect in these systems, so as long as nobody is looking for CAT 1/2 impact, but a good old fashion wind driven rainstorm, it's OK, at least is something interesting. Flying home from Korea today, luckily did not get any missiles come from the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 43 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: i don't get all the posts about how boring this storm is going to be, people always bitching about boring summer weather, now we have something track and enjoy a change of pace, would be nice to get some good analysis instead of the usual OTS or meh comments.. sorry for venting.. 6Z GFS looks further east but then a follow up tropical system .. looks wet next few 10-15 days. wut? no hype and you are pissed, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: wut? no hype and you are pissed, lol who asked for hype lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 14 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: 12z hurricane models are clustered around the benchmark..and some near nantucket. A shift east vs 6z. goalposts narrowing? I think just tighter cluster. Pretty good consensus near the BM or a tick SE of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Barring these two scenarios: extra tropical transition like we saw with Noel, where we got some damn strong winds mixing down...or a landfall into LI/RI/Cape.., I'm only expecting some gusty winds, heavy surf, and some downpours but nothing crazy. A warm core Jose would need to strengthen like Edouard did in 96 to be more impressive than what is currently being advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 I just can't get excited with Jose. Well, I'm up here in Central NE anyhow. Unless he actually moves onshore the impacts on the NW side are basically our winter noreaster stuff. Trees are in leaf so 40mph gusts do more damage than in winter. Will have to watch how big the circulation gets... Remember for storms at our latitude the wind is on the right and the rain on the west... Watching potential Lee and Maria for more US action down the road.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 we made the cone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 15, 2017 Author Share Posted September 15, 2017 God, I wish Jose would go away. Bandwith is so, so precious- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: God, I wish Jose would go away. Bandwith is so, so precious- No way Jose.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: It looks great this morning. Tons of convection around center and great outflow Meh, the convection is vastly less impressive from a temp perspective than it has been the last few days. I will agree that the outflow as improved as the shear has slackened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 I wouldn't right this off just yet; models had Irma on the East coast of FL an s it went West. With the amount of tree canopy hanging over power lines and roads in New England it won't take much wind cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 15, 2017 Author Share Posted September 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, Modfan said: I wouldn't right this off just yet; models had Irma on the East coast of FL an s it went West. With the amount of tree canopy hanging over power lines and roads in New England it won't take much wind cause problems. Yes....modeling biases at 20* latitude are comparable to those at 40*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoth said: Meh, the convection is vastly less impressive from a temp perspective than it has been the last few days. I will agree that the outflow as improved as the shear has slackened. recon headed out there we will see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 15, 2017 Share Posted September 15, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes....model tendencies at 20* are comparable to those at 40*. not sure if you are agreeing or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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