Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 42 minutes ago, Hoth said: Anyone else suffering some storm fatigue? Between Harvey and Irma, I am bushed. yup - mentioned that exhaustion aspect yesterday ...and the day before, and the days before that ... It was couched in the sentiment, 'Tropical weather enthusiasm has got to be the most tortured of all hobbies' I mean, there really is no pay-back for that devotion - unless one is really truly just passionate about the phenomenon at a discrete physical/mathematical level. Somehow, I don't believe 99 % of the readers here are here for that reason (but let's not go down that road again..) Otherwise, it really could not better be described as well, an utter waste of one's time. If you are pinned to a computer with obsessive inability to disengage from satellite refreshes over some TC ...thousands of miles out amid the MDR ... while in wait of a fleeting model solution that happens to dice roll the cyclone into an EC fantasy ... you are literally a resource sink to the world. What it takes to keep you doing that, could better be given back to society functioning - you're worse than wasting your life. although.. I guess if you're paying your electric and ISP bills ..you're subservient to those greater economics sectors and in way...providing a contribution that way ... sort of. But then moreover, you could dig deeper and figure those industries are huge carbon footprints ... massive pie-slice in the overall indulgences of modern living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yup - mentioned that exhaustion aspect yesterday ...and the day before, and the days before that ... It was couched in the sentiment, 'Tropical weather enthusiasm has got to be the most tortured of all hobbies' I mean, there really is no pay-back for that devotion - unless one is really truly just passionate about the phenomenon at a discrete physical/mathematical level. Somehow, I don't believe 99 % of the readers here are here for that reason (but let's not go down that road again..) Otherwise, it really could not better be described as well, an utter waste of one's time. If you are pinned to a computer with obsessive inability to disengage from satellite refreshes over some TC ...thousands of miles out amid the MDR ... while in wait of a fleeting model solution that happens to dice roll the cyclone into an EC fantasy ... you are literally a resource sink to the world. What it takes to keep you doing that, could better be given back to society functioning - you're worse than wasting your life. although.. I guess if you're paying your electric and ISP bills ..you're subservient to those greater economics sectors and in way...providing a contribution that way ... sort of. But then moreover, you could dig deeper and figure those industries are huge carbon footprints ... massive pie-slice in the overall indulgences of modern living. Yeah, I guess if tracking these things is my opioid I must be doing okay. At least this passes the time until the first fantasy snowfall shows up in early November. Also, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Also, WTF GFS. 922mb? Pretty sure that's impossible up here--that is, unless a subterranean super volcano erupts and warms the waters off Jersey to a balmy 85 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Congrats SE MA/CC on 12z GFS today. Let's pull a Sandy into SE CT moving NW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoth said: Also, WTF GFS. 922mb? Pretty sure that's impossible up here--that is, unless a subterranean super volcano erupts and warms the waters off Jersey to a balmy 85 degrees. Disregard the GFS SLPs. It's a know bias with tropical systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Disregard the GFS SLPs. It's a know bias with tropical systems. Yeah, I'm aware. It's pretty silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let's pull a Sandy into SE CT moving NW! That run would bring the eye right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 well... it actually IS possible - if one is to have faith in the model at all. i mean, let's run through this logically for a moment: if the model is to be trusted, shouldn't it then also be actually providing plausible paradigms of the system it is describing? ... maybe it's absurd at all times ..but it is like an "asymptotic curve of absurdity" ... somewhere out in time, the distance between the reality line, wrt the model's opiode curve just gets noticeably large enough.. .such as a 922 mb abeam of new york city... (giggedy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 A little Irma update from Jupiter area of S FL; tornado warnings have been no stop around us and to the north in St Lucie County and Indian River county. Someone in Ft Pierce/Vero are will see 14-18" of rain as they rotted under a band for a while. Bands continue to rotate in off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 yup - mentioned that exhaustion aspect yesterday ...and the day before, and the days before that ... It was couched in the sentiment, 'Tropical weather enthusiasm has got to be the most tortured of all hobbies' I mean, there really is no pay-back for that devotion - unless one is really truly just passionate about the phenomenon at a discrete physical/mathematical level. Somehow, I don't believe 99 % of the readers here are here for that reason (but let's not go down that road again..) Otherwise, it really could not better be described as well, an utter waste of one's time. If you are pinned to a computer with obsessive inability to disengage from satellite refreshes over some TC ...thousands of miles out amid the MDR ... while in wait of a fleeting model solution that happens to dice roll the cyclone into an EC fantasy ... you are literally a resource sink to the world. What it takes to keep you doing that, could better be given back to society functioning - you're worse than wasting your life. although.. I guess if you're paying your electric and ISP bills ..you're subservient to those greater economics sectors and in way...providing a contribution that way ... sort of. But then moreover, you could dig deeper and figure those industries are huge carbon footprints ... massive pie-slice in the overall indulgences of modern living.OkSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Atlanta trip canceled. Good thing I checked work e-mail before heading to Logan....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 40 minutes ago, Modfan said: A little Irma update from Jupiter area of S FL; tornado warnings have been no stop around us and to the north in St Lucie County and Indian River county. Someone in Ft Pierce/Vero are will see 14-18" of rain as they rotted under a band for a while. Bands continue to rotate in off the coast. Hang in there Bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: yup - mentioned that exhaustion aspect yesterday ...and the day before, and the days before that ... It was couched in the sentiment, 'Tropical weather enthusiasm has got to be the most tortured of all hobbies' I mean, there really is no pay-back for that devotion - unless one is really truly just passionate about the phenomenon at a discrete physical/mathematical level. Somehow, I don't believe 99 % of the readers here are here for that reason (but let's not go down that road again..) Otherwise, it really could not better be described as well, an utter waste of one's time. If you are pinned to a computerwith obsessive inability to disengage from satellite refreshes over some TC ...thousands of miles out amid the MDR ... while in wait of a fleeting model solution that happens to dice roll the cyclone into an EC fantasy ... you are literally a resource sink to the world. What it takes to keep you doing that, could better be given back to society functioning - you're worse than wasting your life. although.. I guess if you're paying your electric and ISP bills ..you're subservient to those greater economics sectors and in way...providing a contribution that way ... sort of. But then moreover, you could dig deeper and figure those industries are huge carbon footprints ... massive pie-slice in the overall indulgences of modern living. Pretty rare John. I look at model runs on mobile devices 90% of the time and I suspect most here do the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Pretty rare John. I look at model runs on mobile devices 90% of the time and I suspect most here do the same. not sure if this is tongue in cheek or not ... i suspect it is -or hope so anywho ... but mobile devices are computers? regardless ... 'pinned to technology' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: not sure if this is tongue in cheek or not ... i suspect it is -or hope so anywho ... but mobile devices are computers? regardless ... 'pinned to technology' Storm or no storm that's the deal these days-all over the world.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: Storm or no storm that's the deal these days-all over the world.... yeeeah.. ... that's skewing the point - no, if you are pinned to that specific usage. whatever - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Marco Island getting crushed per live feed on WC and Marco is mainly under 10' elevation. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTSkywarn Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I know Irma is the big story right now, but has anyone taken a look at the 228 hour GFS? Jose, 923 MB just south of us and then at hour 234... looks like it is right over Boston. I know it will probably change, but interesting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 13 minutes ago, CTSkywarn said: I know Irma is the big story right now, but has anyone taken a look at the 228 hour GFS? Jose, 923 MB just south of us and then at hour 234... looks like it is right over Boston. I know it will probably change, but interesting..... Perhaps reading back about 10 posts you'd get your answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTSkywarn Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Perhaps reading back about 10 posts you'd get your answer. Yeah... I guess I should have checked first...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 IMHO, Irma was a relative dud as far as the US is concerned. Significant and damaging, but not spoken of too much 15 years from now. As soon as this veered west into Cuba, it changed the game completely. After all of the obsession over RI in the FL straits, and ostracizing anyone who dared to question the concept.....we saw Irma reclaim an aggregate 10mph and 13mb. Never underestimate structural challenges posed to a major hurricane interacting with land during an ERC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Live footage from weather channel is/was incredible. 100mph gusts no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: IMHO, Irma was a relative dud as far as the US is concerned. Significant, not spoken of too much 15 years from now. As soon as this veered west into Cuba, it changed the game completely. After all of the obsession over RI in the FL straits, and ostracizing anyone who dared to question the concept.....we saw Irma reclaim an aggregate 10mph and 13mb. Never underestimate structural challenges posed to a major hurricane interacting with land during an ERC. That's a pretty bold statement for an event that isn't even over and the full story hasn't been written. I recall people saying that Katrina wasn't so bad the morning after and then the levy's broke. I don't disagree with anything else you said and you might wind up being correct but when there's huge areas that haven't been fully heard from and they still have hours to go, it's pretty hard to make a statement like that (IMHO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Let's pull a Sandy into SE CT moving NW! We need an unlike button for posts like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, MetHerb said: That's a pretty bold statement for an event that isn't even over and the full story hasn't been written. I recall people saying that Katrina wasn't so bad the morning after and then the levy's broke. I don't disagree with anything else you said and you might wind up being correct but when there's huge areas that haven't been fully heard from and they still have hours to go, it's pretty hard to make a statement like that (IMHO). We've seen what marginal cat 3 winds do over and over again....I don't think that is going to change. They are dangerous storms, and there will be lots of damage, but its nothing like what nearly happened. I think its going to be pretty manageable aside from localized areas....as far as TB, looks to track far enough east to mitigate the surge to a degree. Hopefully people in the EW took precautions and are safe, but the US collectively lucked out, thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 12z GFS is on Revis island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Winds manageable, but all bets off if there's 10-15' storm surge. Marcio Island going to be a total disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 you guys watchign weather channel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 1 minute ago, MarkO said: Winds manageable, but all bets off if there's 10-15' storm surge. Marcio Island going to be a total disaster. Yes...localized areas were hit very hard with surge. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 I know most evacuated MI, but I fear some stayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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