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Tropical Season 2017

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, adk said:

Surprised to see the drop in wind speeds this morning. MSW are now 155 - 160.  I think that's bad news. In Katrina there was substantial "weakening" before landfall and people assumed that meant the storm was going to much less severe. However, the drop in wind speeds didn't correspond to a drop in overall engery output and we know what happened there. I can see the same thing happening here. This is a large storm that's pushing a huge amount of water into Florida. If it comes ashore with winds of 150, 160, 170 whatever...it's still going to beat the living hell out of the coast. 

Hell of a month for the insurance industry. Going to be double digit billion dollar losses back to back....

I want to say Katrina was $105-110 billion and Sandy was in the 80 billion range which nearly broke FEMA. If Harvey is ~$170 billion and Irma ends up in the $100 billion, who pays? I'm guessing the American tax payer. 

 

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, MarkO said:

What's your elevation? If you're above 20' I'd stay.

108' ASL, surrounded by swamp, St. John Waterway 5 miles E. Consensus: "stay"
I'm leaning to staying for the sake of 4 dogs, 2 cats. Ironic the local native Floridians have already booked-out in the hood!  Elderly couple across the way not budging. I have a neighbor who's a worry-wart, driving me absolutely nuts probably due to being inebriated. He his girlfriend and I discussed late last-night a plan on evac but in reality only a ploy to get him out.

Have enough non-perishables for about a month inclusive for 6 people. Many, not knowing how many in the back-lots are completely exposed in modular and mobile dwellings. Neighborhood appears empty. As to experiencing an event on such scale is a weenie dream and for the sake of those who stay it would be irresponsible if I leave.

RFQ or bust!

Now back to your regularly scheduled dialogue. Thanks to all for your input.

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bairn

bairn

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

108' ASL, surrounded by swamp, St. John Waterway 5 miles E. Consensus: "stay"
I'm leaning to staying for the sake of 4 dogs, 2 cats. Ironic the local native Floridians have already booked-out in the hood!  Elderly couple across the way not budging. I have a neighbor who's a worry-wart, driving me absolutely nuts probably due to being inebriated. He his girlfriend and I discussed late last-night a plan on evac but in reality only a ploy to get him out.

Have enough non-perishables for about a month inclusive for 6 people. Many, not knowing how many in the back-lots are completely exposed in modular and mobile dwellings. Neighborhood appears empty. As to experiencing an event on such scale is a weenie dream and for the sake of those who stay it would be irresponsible if I leave.

RFQ or bust!

Now back to your regularly scheduled dialogue. Thanks to all for your input.

Is the St Johns able to handle infux of surge and then turn around and drain all the rain?

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I'm not sure Irma fully recovers. It seems to be tripping over the islands a little bit. Maybe high cat 3- low cat 4 at landfall. Have my doubts that it will strengthen back to a 5. We'll see.

There's minimal shear, ridiculous available heat, excellent outflow channels and so on, so the only thing holding it back will be its own internal dynamics. The latest ERC is almost complete, and it will be interesting to watch how it responds this morning. Bar to reclaim five status might be higher given its expanding size, and any close interaction with Cuba could take a small bite out of it. I have a hard time seeing it as anything less than a mid-range 4. Surge will still be very top end of the scale regardless of wind.

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

108' ASL, surrounded by swamp, St. John Waterway 5 miles E. Consensus: "stay"
I'm leaning to staying for the sake of 4 dogs, 2 cats. Ironic the local native Floridians have already booked-out in the hood!  Elderly couple across the way not budging. I have a neighbor who's a worry-wart, driving me absolutely nuts probably due to being inebriated. He his girlfriend and I discussed late last-night a plan on evac but in reality only a ploy to get him out.

Have enough non-perishables for about a month inclusive for 6 people. Many, not knowing how many in the back-lots are completely exposed in modular and mobile dwellings. Neighborhood appears empty. As to experiencing an event on such scale is a weenie dream and for the sake of those who stay it would be irresponsible if I leave.

RFQ or bust!

Now back to your regularly scheduled dialogue. Thanks to all for your input.

Good luck down there. Gonna be a hell of a thing.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Yikes 

GFS MOS (MAV)
 KHST   GFS MOS GUIDANCE    9/08/2017  0600 UTC                      
 DT /SEPT  8      /SEPT  9                /SEPT 10             /     
 HR   12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 
 X/N              90          82          89          79       94    
 TMP  84 88 90 89 85 86 85 86 85 82 82 87 85 89 92 93 94 79 84 83 80 
 DPT  80 79 78 78 77 79 80 80 79 80 79 81 78 77 73 75 73 79 80 79 80 
 CLD  SC SC SC SC OV SC OV OV BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV SC OV 
 WDR  05 05 04 04 04 05 05 06 06 05 04 06 06 07 08 11 11 11 21 20 19 
 WSP  10 15 17 18 18 17 18 21 23 27 30 38 35 37 43 54 62 91 52 50 21 
 P06        12    31    40    39    51    69   100   100    86 66 54 
 P12              39          66          78         100       87    
 Q06         0     0     1     2     3     5     5     5     5  5  5 
 Q12               0           3           6           6        6    
 T06     36/ 2 52/ 2 37/ 8 36/ 4 52/ 1 72/ 6 41/ 9 40/ 0 60/ 7 36/13 
 T12                 62/ 8       57/ 4       72/17       71/ 9 69/16 
 POZ   0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  0  1  1 
 POS   0  1  0  0  0  2  2  3  3  2  0  0  3  5  4  4  5  0  0  0  0 
 TYP   R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R  R 
 CIG   8  6  6  6  5  4  6  5  5  5  4  4  3  3  4  4  4  2  3  3  4 
 VIS   7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  5  4  3  5  6  7  5  3  1  7  7 
 OBV   N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N BR BR BR BR  N  N BR FG FG  N  N
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, dendrite said:

All of those euro cave posts the other day and now the GFS cuts right up through SW FL.

There's a phenomenon that goes on in here where the user-ship base has to be occasionally updated and/or renewed introductory philosophies altogether, re the many fundamentals of weather model interpretation/usage. 

I don't know why that is...why the lessons seems to fade (or enter doubt?) so easily; maybe the wisdom is giving into the erosive forces of faux beliefs, and/or inherently non-scientifically oriented return contributors that in a way don't 'want' to 'get it'..? However or whatever the cause, I also wonder if it is just new users.  

Like suppose every 18 months or something ... some new hobbyist/enthusiast/scientist/...troll, joins on up where others quietly drop off into obscurity never to return.  ...The crucible of time sort of thus  "de" purifies the collective knowledge base as the collective suffers translation of personnel ... And then here we are:  "Didn't we just mutilate this dead horse last year?" 

In a lot of ways, some of the more advanced users (in terms of learned wisdom, however experiential or formally educated ...) are like school teachers/college professors in that way. Every year there is a new bright eyed and bushy tail wagging auditorium of arrogance-before-wisdom Freshman enthusiasts that of course know waaay more than the rest of us old salts of the field that learned the hard way through the passages of thankless time, just how meaningless one's genius really is to any collection of people from the public that actually spend more than two minutes of attention span they don't have actually reading the text that you supply...  They'll learn.  And, in the meantime, we'll frustrate occasionally at why we are repeating old explanatory tapes. 

 

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BriggsyStorms

BriggsyStorms

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's a phenomenon that goes on in here where the user-ship base has to be occasionally updated and/or renewed introductory philosophies altogether, re the many fundamentals of weather model interpretation/usage. 

I don't know why that is...why the lessons seems to fade (or enter doubt?) so easily; maybe the wisdom is giving into the erosive forces of faux beliefs, and/or inherently non-scientifically oriented return contributors that in a way don't 'want' to 'get it'..? However or whatever the cause, I also wonder if it is just new users.  

Like suppose every 18 months or something ... some new hobbyist/enthusiast/scientist/...troll, joins on up where others quietly drop off into obscurity never to return.  ...The crucible of time sort of thus  "de" purifies the collective knowledge base as the collective suffers translation of personnel ... And then here we are:  "Didn't we just mutilate this dead horse last year?" 

In a lot of ways, some of the more advanced users (in terms of learned wisdom, however experiential or formally educated ...) are like school teachers/college professors in that way. Every year there is a new bright eyed and bushy tail wagging auditorium of arrogance-before-wisdom Freshman enthusiasts that of course know waaay more than the rest of us old salts of the field that learned the hard way through the passages of thankless time, just how meaningless one's genius really is to any collection of people from the public that actually spend more than two minutes of attention span they don't have actually reading the text that you supply...  They'll learn.  And, in the meantime, we'll frustrate occasionally at why we are repeating old explanatory tapes. 

 

This right here is why I hardly ever post.  I read read and read and try to learn.  Sincere thank you to all of you "advanced users" for your insights and knowledge.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, BriggsyStorms said:

This right here is why I hardly ever post.  I read read and read and try to learn.  Sincere thank you to all of you "advanced users" for your insights and knowledge.

ah...  I hope this doesn't mean you are discouraged? :)

don't be.. .I tend to be dark/sardonic and tongue in cheek - and so to are others/return users involved in this social media outlet ... Most don't really mind explaining things; if you're curious you should always speak up.  

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BriggsyStorms

BriggsyStorms

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ah...  I hope this doesn't mean you are discouraged? :)

don't be.. .I tend to be dark/sardonic and tongue in cheek - and so to are others/return users involved in this social media outlet ... Most don't really mind explaining things; if you're curious you should always speak up.  

Not at all.  Most of my questions get answered before I get a chance to even ask. If you haven't noticed, you all are quite thorough. ^_^

Very much enjoy following along and absorbing as much as I can. Cheers to all. 

 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
On ‎9‎/‎7‎/‎2017 at 10:22 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I really don't get why this story is gaining traction ...it's really not that big of a deal - no it's not. 

firstly, those commercial airlines are tanks in the sky, with so many safety and reinforcing structural components that jet fighters could be envious, ..because they have to be. They can take a lot of atmospheric punishment once they are above the planetary boundary layer.  

secondly, they fly at 400 to 500 mph ... what part of that velocity makes anything Irma is doing that much of a threat. They can fly circles around that the f thing if they wanted... going, na na na-na na.   Oh my god this so pimping a story for the sake of getting ratings... gross... - typical sensational crap.  there's literally NOTHING to be amazed about there. 

 

Up at 35,000 feet, not a big problem (and they can fly around the storm.)  It's down at 3,500, or 350, that issues can arise, even for big tough airplanes.  As I'm sure you know, wx-related cancels are almost always due to hazardous conditions for takeoff and landing.

There's minimal shear, ridiculous available heat, excellent outflow channels and so on, so the only thing holding it back will be its own internal dynamics.

Unless it tracks far enough south that it does more than a brush-pass with Cuba.  Biggest 'cane-disemboweling mountains are farther west, though.

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