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Tropical Season 2017


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16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Haven't learned your GFS obsession is useless? 

Looks like a storm track I would've made during social studies class in 6th grade. I have a better chance of going back into the past to wrestle a pink t-rex than that evolution verifying.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Looks like a storm track I would've made during social studies class in 6th grade. I have a better chance of going back into the past to wrestle a pink t-rex than that evolution verifying.

For a Davis 2 impressive https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IPROVIDE35#history

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For the love of God.. can we just a freaking legit cane to track right up into SNE. I mean what happened to days of yore when they'd frequent the area. Year after year we end up with blue balls. Sooner or later it's got to happen.

If by "legit" you mean a major cane, just note that we went from 1635 to 1815 without a major once. 180 years. Of course, we also had something of a bonanza between 1938-1960. Might be a long time before your balls find relief, buuuut just maybe you'll might find yourself in a '54 style Kate Upton/Kelly Rohrbach sandwich.

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1 hour ago, ROOSTA said:

Serious question. All responses appreciated.
Should I stay or should I go?
As most know I live in a CAT5 constructed log home. 30 miles W of Daytona Beach.

Hard to say in your location...would think you'd be in for solid cat 2, maybe 3 wind in gusts. I'll say my grandmother and uncle are evacuating Siesta Key for a spot away from the beach, even though they are probably a fair distance from landfall. Better safe than sorry. Your home can probably take the wind, but are you situated such that you might be susceptible to falling trees? Do you have all your basic supplies, medications, pet foods, etc. etc.? Are you prepared to be cut off for a while? Is your health reliably good? My uncle was ordered by his doc to a hospital for the storm because he has a heart condition. Can you put up with an extended period without A/C? Is your area liable to flooding? Too many variables. 

 

Side note: another uncle lives in St. Thomas and said it was the scariest thing he's ever experienced.

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18 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Serious question. All responses appreciated.
Should I stay or should I go?
As most know I live in a CAT5 constructed log home. 30 miles W of Daytona Beach.

As long as you stay inside, cover your windows you will be fine. Just have to deal with a week to two of camping. Winds probably max near 100

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19 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Serious question. All responses appreciated.
Should I stay or should I go?
As most know I live in a CAT5 constructed log home. 30 miles W of Daytona Beach.

If you have the means, just go. Secure as much you can and go somewhere safe. If it's not that bad in your area after the storm, you can head back right away. If it's bad, at least you're safe. 

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17 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Serious question. All responses appreciated.
Should I stay or should I go?
As most know I live in a CAT5 constructed log home. 30 miles W of Daytona Beach.

While I don't envy your situation Don, I think you should be able to ride out the storm.  I do think you see hurricane force winds (80-100 mph) but I don't think you'll see the damage that's occurred in the Caribbean or what looks to occur in S FL.  My biggest concern would be a tree that could damage your roof or a wall allowing the winds to get into the interior of the house.

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17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

As long as you stay inside, cover your windows you will be fine. Just have to deal with a week to two of camping. Winds probably max near 100

 

15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

While I don't envy your situation Don, I think you should be able to ride out the storm.  I do think you see hurricane force winds (80-100 mph) but I don't think you'll see the damage that's occurred in the Caribbean or what looks to occur in S FL.  My biggest concern would be a tree that could damage your roof or a wall allowing the winds to get into the interior of the house.

Both great answers, sounds like Don's domicile is probably good for 100+ gusts, just tape the windows, be smart, be safe and enjoy.

Food and non grid cooking and light sources are key.  Even in the relatively tame Northeast I always have those at the ready for my family and neighbors. 

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My take is no different from anyone else's for the most part.....the main challenge for me was parsing my words in such a manner has to convey the utmost sense of urgency that this warrants.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/09/confidence-grows-regarding-catastrophic.html

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For the love of God.. can we just a freaking legit cane to track right up into SNE. I mean what happened to days of yore when they'd frequent the area. Year after year we end up with blue balls. Sooner or later it's got to happen.

Lol.

a New England hurricane.  Lol

waste of a tropical system 

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5 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

For the love of God.. can we just a freaking legit cane to track right up into SNE. I mean what happened to days of yore when they'd frequent the area. Year after year we end up with blue balls. Sooner or later it's got to happen.

Yes!!! Yes!!! Yes!!!

lol all the haters

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Cluster analysis is really starting to highlight the differences we need to paying attention to at this hour. 

The slower, southern ensemble members are more likely to target an early turn and the east coast of FL. The faster, southern solutions are more likely to target the west coast of FL. The members that are middle of the road speed and maybe slightly north more often end up tracking down the middle of FL as well.

For whatever reason, there are some really slow CMC members that still insist on a whiff completely. And you can really see why the EPS is west, because there are hardly any members that are slower and south. More often they are faster than the mean, with a cluster south of track and another larger cluster at or north of the mean.

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Surprised to see the drop in wind speeds this morning. MSW are now 155 - 160.  I think that's bad news. In Katrina there was substantial "weakening" before landfall and people assumed that meant the storm was going to much less severe. However, the drop in wind speeds didn't correspond to a drop in overall engery output and we know what happened there. I can see the same thing happening here. This is a large storm that's pushing a huge amount of water into Florida. If it comes ashore with winds of 150, 160, 170 whatever...it's still going to beat the living hell out of the coast. 

Hell of a month for the insurance industry. Going to be double digit billion dollar losses back to back....

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18 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I really don't get why this story is gaining traction ...it's really not that big of a deal - no it's not. 

firstly, those commercial airlines are tanks in the sky, with so many safety and reinforcing structural components that jet fighters could be envious, ..because they have to be. They can take a lot of atmospheric punishment once they are above the planetary boundary layer.  

secondly, they fly at 400 to 500 mph ... what part of that velocity makes anything Irma is doing that much of a threat. They can fly circles around that the f thing if they wanted... going, na na na-na na.   Oh my god this so pimping a story for the sake of getting ratings... gross... - typical sensational crap.  there's literally NOTHING to be amazed about there. 

 

Agreed. It's just funny - particularly given how fickle US air transport seems to be under OTHER conditions. I've had flights cancelled due to the POTENTIAL for snow. 

Obv. planes can fly through and around this stuff: see hurrican hunter flights. 

 

 

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