Ginx snewx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 GFS west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 29 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: Not about the oil it's about the refineries that's where most of them are True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: GFS west again Bad news for Florida....maybe a bit of relief for GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 26 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Bad news for Florida....maybe a bit of relief for GA/SC. Yes, Its bad news, Skirts the Florida coast then LF GA/Carolina border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Same as 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom12309 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 A co-worker's younger brother lives in Houston and his house just passed inspection so he can go back in... knee deep water outside but she said 'Not as much indoors'. Her parents live in Puerto Rico. She's stressing. She said it seemed like a month without water or electricity when she lived there and I think she said it was Hugo that went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Definitely west of 6z for sure. This is why we don't always knee jerk to trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 The current consensus, including the 12z GFS, resembles the copy of the Dawn Awakening that even James' mother had discarded. It is absolutely unimaginable the cost, in terms of both loss of life and monetary damage that could dwarf Katrina, that may be incurred within 102 hours. My girlfriend has a friend stuck in Miami...she as supposed to get out yesterday, and she mocked me for expressing concern that that would not happen. She is now scared and hopeful to leave Friday. I told her to find a brick building, and lay down in an interior room should she remain when and/if this current forecast verifies- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely west of 6z for sure. This is why we don't always knee jerk to trends. Many of us that favor this general outcome have remained pretty steadfast and consistent- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50217-monster-category-5-hurricane-irma/?do=findComment&comment=4612792 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Everyone less my cross-the-street neighbor are leaving. She and I will hole down in my house (4 dogs, two cats...la-DE-da-da) reinforced crawl space cinder-block enclosed. Ole saying is confront your fears! Still time for that track to adjust. Roads already becoming jammed...oy vey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 9 hours ago, moneypitmike said: Since that's the case of 95% of any tropical system, why make this individual one any different? We're either looking at some rains after it's inland run or some great Misqu. surf for Steve. Pick your poison. The Carolina's 'out' is this interaction with Hispaniola, Cuba, PR and the FL peninsula. They're going to get wacked, but if those three interactions take place to a significant level, it will likely be quite a bit weaker than it is now. I do not think that opportunity is very realistic....PR would not weaken it, anyway....but its skirting north of them. Hispanola it wil whiff...and will likely skirt Cuba at most. If it hits FL, its a cat 3 for the Carolinas as opposed to a 4 or a 5...and it could regain cat 4 status, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Many of us that favor this general outcome have remained pretty steadfast and consistent- Yep, you've had a level head....even despite that drunken idiot giving you crap last night. Definitely concerned for MIA and up the coast. 15 miles means so much and impossible to pinpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yep, you've had a level head....even despite that drunken idiot giving you crap last night. Definitely concerned for MIA and up the coast. 15 miles means so much and impossible to pinpoint. People are emotional and scared....I don't hold it against him. Three years ago I would have destroyed the thread with a retaliatory tirade....but not these days- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Irma is strengthening again as Recon found 915mb pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: People are emotional and scared....I don't hold it against him. Three years ago I would have destroyed the thread with a retaliatory tirade....but not these days- lol, Hold that for the winter threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: lol, Hold that for the winter threads. You guys are different...I can be a jerk in here because we all know each other hahaha I don't post much in the main thread, and you saw why...thought I could get away with it at 2am, but negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Ray Irma might spare my neighbors who live in St. Thomas nw part of the island, she is either moving NWward or jogging NWward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: You guys are different...I can be a jerk in here because we all know each other hahaha I don't post much in the main thread, and you saw why...thought I could get away with it at 2am, but negative. This is true, I stay out of the main threads, To much drama that i don't need.........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 The only functioning webcam in the hurricanes near path is St Croix and it's looks like TS conditions there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Many of us that favor this general outcome have remained pretty steadfast and consistent- Thought you favored OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 hour ago, ROOSTA said: Everyone less my cross-the-street neighbor are leaving. She and I will hole down in my house (4 dogs, two cats...la-DE-da-da) reinforced crawl space cinder-block enclosed. Ole saying is confront your fears! Still time for that track to adjust. Roads already becoming jammed...oy vey. Is she single? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Just now, JC-CT said: Is she single? Brand new...lanai on the front is concerning because it faces due N. 1X12 adjustable bolts, truss is 4X6. I'm somewhat confident because it survived 2004's triple header. Reminded me to take pictures, lots and lots of pictures. TY, probably post a before and after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, ROOSTA said: Brand new...lanai on the front is concerning because it faces due N. 1X12 adjustable bolts, truss is 4X6. I'm somewhat confident because it survived 2004's triple header. Reminded me to take pictures, lots and lots of pictures. TY, probably post a before and after... What? I meant your neighbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: What? I meant your neighbor. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I interpreted her as newly single with Don getting ready to post ALL KINDS of pics during his hurricane party... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Hurricane Stat Man The Snowman at your Service - Here are some stats on Sustained "Sustained 1-Minute Wind Speed" if you will as this is an area Irma is kicking serious tush in. I won't post but a few Typhoon numbers, as they have all the records worldwide usually. But this is for every other basin): Longest Time as 140mph+ Storm - Atlantic Hurricane Ivan (2004) - 174 Hours Atlantic Hurricane Isabel (2003) - 120 Hours IRMA 32 HOURS Longest Time as Category 5 Hurricane - Atlantic Hurricane David (1979) - 42 Hours Atlantic Hurricane Mitch (1998) - 36 Hours IRMA 32 HOURS Longest Time as 175mph+ Storm - #1 HURRICANE IRMA - 31 Hours and Counting Eastern Pacific Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 24+ Hours Atlantic Hurricane Camile (1969) - 24 Hours Atlantic Hurricane Mitch (1998) - 24 Hours Atlantic Hurricane Allen (1980) - 18+ Hours Eastern Pacific Hurricane Rick (2009) - 18 Hours (Typhoon Haiyan in 2003 did 36 Hours / Typhoon Meranti in 2016 did 48 Hours+) Longest Time as 180mph+ Storm - #1 HURRICANE IRMA - 27 Hours and Counting Eastern Pacific Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 24+ Hours Atlantic Hurricane Camile (1969) - 24 Hours Atlantic Hurricane Allen (1980) - 18 Hours (Allen Attained 180mph 3 different times) Atlantic Hurricane Gilbert (1988) - 12 Hours (Typhoon Meranti in 2016 did 48 Hours) Longest Time as 185mph+ Storm - #1 HURRICANE IRMA - 24 Hours and Counting Eastern Pacific Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 24 Hours Longest Time as 190mph+ Storm - Atlantic Hurricane Camile (1969) - 12 Hours (Typhoon Haiyan in 2003 did 12 Hours) Longest Time as 200mph+ Storm - Eastern Pacific Hurricane Patricia (2015) - 12 Hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Dawn Awakening is that the prequel to "Fall Asleep At Sunset" ... what's a Dawn Awakening ? anyway, there is still some hope that this won't even do more than fringe Florida.. Although, we probably are just into the better predictive time scales ...barely. There's time tho - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 That 12z Euro run is as bad as it could possibly be for the East coast of Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 That would bring some brutal coastal flooding to FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.