USCG RS Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 At least a SNE hit looks to be out of the mix.....we'll take some rainy leftovers to keep the lawn lush as we head into foliage season.Imo, nothing is off the table yet for the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: At least a SNE hit looks to be out of the mix.....we'll take some rainy leftovers to keep the lawn lush as we head into foliage season. Some of these runs don't even get any of Irma's rems up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 34 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: At least a SNE hit looks to be out of the mix.....we'll take some rainy leftovers to keep the lawn lush as we head into foliage season. Imo, nothing is off the table yet for the EC. Yup there's plenty of ens clusters near or up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Yup there's plenty of ens clusters near or up the coast That's a reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 39 minutes ago, dryslot said: Some of these runs don't even get any of Irma's rems up here. i know. i was being optimist of having a heavy shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 i know. i was being optimist of having a heavy shower. We will probably see more moisture from the slow moving front that ends up draped along the coast over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTSkywarn Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I was just watching a streaming TV station in Miami (WPLG). They have Max Mayfield on as a hurricane specialist. He did an analog on Hurricane Donna. He believes the pattern is similar to that hurricane. So, perhaps the threat is still there. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 letters: I B F'D Still time for this to change the road it's on. I'm nervous for my neighbors. Guy cross the street (don't know what he was thinking) had all his trees crowned, bottom limbs gone. Not good having top-heavy Souther Oak trees. Many double-wide and dilapidated mobile dwellings and sheds being used as homes. Of the 40 homes I guess only a handful could withstand a CAT3...CAT4 and above anything less than re-enforced concrete is in jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Jose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: 4 letters: I B F'D Still time for this to change the road it's on. I'm nervous for my neighbors. Guy cross the street (don't know what he was thinking) had all his trees crowned, bottom limbs gone. Not good having top-heavy Souther Oak trees. Many double-wide and dilapidated mobile dwellings and sheds being used as homes. Of the 40 homes I guess only a handful could withstand a CAT3...CAT4 and above anything less than re-enforced concrete is in jeopardy. Time to start making preparations Don. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Jose Second run it's done the loop. Not worth squat, but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 21 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: 4 letters: I B F'D Still time for this to change the road it's on. I'm nervous for my neighbors. Guy cross the street (don't know what he was thinking) had all his trees crowned, bottom limbs gone. Not good having top-heavy Souther Oak trees. Many double-wide and dilapidated mobile dwellings and sheds being used as homes. Of the 40 homes I guess only a handful could withstand a CAT3...CAT4 and above anything less than re-enforced concrete is in jeopardy. When you get into these upper ranges there's so much stuff flying around that there's a pretty good amount of luck (and hyper-local geography) involved regarding how much damage a well built structure takes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 ...jeez the 18Z GFS. It just keeps getting worse for S FL. Ridiculous overdone pressure 890. Yet I said the Houston rainfall amounts were way overdone... Lots of family in S Florida. Have spent the past hour making some calls. The reactions... Gene, I was just watching TV they really don't know where its going. Gene, Wei've been through plenty of hurricanes. My 89 year old step father that lives alone and is on oxygen......Gene, I'm fine. I can go over to a neighbors for a night till it blows over... So I don't get much reaction. The frustration for me is when they say, the local weatherman says this or that. Your up in NH, your not a weatherman. I bet with my knowledge and the knowledge I get through AMWX I could debate most of these local guys and hold my own.. Let's hope things change and that Euro track of yesterday comes back and this recurves out to sea.. Rant ova... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 We're onto Jose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 hour ago, dryslot said: We will probably see more moisture from the slow moving front that ends up draped along the coast over the next few days. Where's my qpf??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Where's my qpf??? Pitt2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Hurricane model HMON @ 18z progged to hit FL Keys 00z Sunday with 175 mph sustained and higher gusts before making landfall in S FL. 870 mb. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090418&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=291.3333435058594 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Hurricane model HMON @ 18z progged to hit FL Keys 00z Sunday with 175 mph sustained and higher gusts before making landfall in S FL. 870 mb. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hmon®ion=11L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017090418&fh=126&xpos=0&ypos=291.3333435058594 Most likely overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Weenie model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Even if you add 40mb it is still a 910 beastie. Still lots of time. Possible Cuba interaction, possible earlier start N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Hi Everyone, for us in the northeast, does our ocean temps play a roll ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Weenie fodder but neat to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 HWRF spared Donnie but destroyed EEks paradise Things trending west each day. On the table is a GOM run now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 43 minutes ago, dryslot said: Weenie model. GFS gets down to 891mb. Max winds show as about 135 mph. That pressure calls for CAT 5 winds unless impeded by topography in vicinity. Almost all the southeastern peninsula and the entire southern end are covered by the Everglades, the world's largest sawgrass swamp. Not too inhibiting. If anything, GFS wind field is underdone at that pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 15 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: GFS gets down to 891mb. I would say that may be overdone as well seeing there has only been one hurricane to reach 892 mb and LF the US, There have been others in the 880's but never hit the mainland, None ever 870 mb, So i would say that's way overdone, Must be a relative of the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 45 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: We were seeing some modeled Irma solutions like that a few days ago too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: HWRF spared Donnie but destroyed EEks paradise Things trending west each day. On the table is a GOM run now Still odds favor Fl and SE coast but GOM is certainly coming into play now. Who knows, although ensemble members are leaning against that solution currently, Irma could still thread the needle into the GOM with only marginal land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Still odds favor Fl and SE coast but GOM is certainly coming into play now. Who knows, although ensemble members are leaning against that solution currently, Irma could still thread the needle into the GOM with only marginal land interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Good God if it's hits Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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