wxeyeNH Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: good point here. that whole sag in the track guidance out there is unusual. In fact, I recall having posted about that philosophy just yesterday or the day before in here, how it really seems the destiny of Irma is increasingly prone to error until it unfolds beyond that 'sagging' ... I second the good point. Take a look at the EPS members. The dots along the short term of the track really widen the eventual outcome. A small shift in the WSW track really widens out the fan at the end of the run. Will be interesting to see how far she gets in the next day or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I think the biggest wildcard is if it moves more south than expected the next 2 days which almost always seems to happen when a tropical system takes on a component south of west. Rarely does it not end up more south than guidance had 2-3 days in advance. That will throw a monkey wrench into the entire downstream forecast for sure if it happens I agree. I commented on that very fact last night. Taking it further south than progged could put it further away from the influence of the ridge and allow it to continue its westward movement for a longer period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I second the good point. Take a look at the EPS members. The dots along the short term of the track really widen the eventual outcome. A small shift in the WSW track really widens out the fan at the end of the run. Will be interesting to see how far she gets in the next day or so.... The good news is that the Hurr models for the most part aren't really biting too hard on the SW movement and IMO those are always better to use through 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Exactly. Massive change for one op run. We are still 8-9 days away from any potential recurving. The Euro op is all alone among the major globals with that run. I'll bet the 00z is way west of this run. Big changes on one run fitting more into the ensemble picture and climo-just saying. We're in our 70s and we can probably count on one hand the major impacts we've lived through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Actually 3 in 1954, Donna in 1960, Bob in '91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Diane in '55 for rains particularly in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 I'm still thinking that my area here in S FL is as much of a threat as the NE at this point. Treating it as a threat until it passes north of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Diane in '55 for rains particularly in CT. Connie Diane combo that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Actually 3 in 1954, Donna in 1960, Bob in '91. Gloria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Actually 3 in 1954, Donna in 1960, Bob in '91. Gloria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Sandy wasn't big impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Gloria Not for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 If we eliminate 3 years, I'm down to 2 of we include Gloria which I wasn't on the east coast for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Looks like GFS at 18z is following more closely what the euro sniffed at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS at 884mb at 174. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, shawnmov said: GFS at 884mb at 174. LOL. Is that a basin record? This model ludicrously overdoes intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 In the end GFS is still a pummeling of near historic proportions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 878mb holy**** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: In the end GFS is still a pummeling of near historic proportions. GFS just said what ots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Chesapeake Bay LF. I was wrong in what I thought the model will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, 78Blizzard said: GFS just said what ots? I can't understand it though because WAR seemed to be retreating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 GFS has been remarkably consistent with landfall somewhere between LI and Chessie. Pretty impressive. Whether right or not....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 LOL... GFS gets Irma down to 875mb. Atlantic record is 882mb. To me things don't seem anymore clearcut than 24 hours ago. Seems like Irma could very easily move north then head out to the northeast..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its Carolinas/mid atl, or go fish. Even if it hits then first.. every piece of guidance crushes NE. This ain't any Isabel. Mets have outlined so damaging for NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Even if it hits then first.. every piece of guidance crushes NE. This ain't any Isabel. Mets have outlined so damaging for NE Who? Tip called you on your BS implicating him in that group when he was clearly talking NYC LF. But who said we get crushed with a lower MA up to Chesapeake LF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 878mb holy**** what thats impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 41 minutes ago, Hoth said: Is that a basin record? This model ludicrously overdoes intensity. 2nd to 1935 ahead of Camille Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Who? Tip called you on your BS implicating him in that group when he was clearly talking NYC LF. But who said we get crushed with a lower MA up to Chesapeake LF? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: 2nd to 1935 ahead of Camille Wasn't 1935 under 800 mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: ? ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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