NortheastPAWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I guess many of you would love to see your house get blown away, never understood why people root for hurricanes so much even weather junkies. Oh good, the morality argument is back... If all hurricanes were goal post splitters like this one is apparently going to be, what would be the fun in tracking them? Face it, 'canes are a lot more interesting when they become Andrews, Katrinas, and Harveys. No one's going to remember a category 5 hurricane if it impacts nothing along the way. It's horrible watching the damage, but it's what fuels the hobby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Oh good, the morality argument is back... If all hurricanes were goal post splitters like this one is apparently going to be, what would be the fun in tracking them? Face it, 'canes are a lot more interesting when they become Andrews, Katrinas, and Harveys. No one's going to remember a category 5 hurricane if it impacts nothing along the way. It's horrible watching the damage, but it's what fuels the hobby... Not a morality argument just no one wants a strong cane in their hood, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Not a morality argument just no one wants a strong cane in their hood, do you? The way I see it, every kind of stormy weather has destructive potential. If we wanted to get rid of it, we'd just have rotating sunny and mild followed by some rain/snow (depending on season) then and again, and that'd make following weather boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: Oh good, the morality argument is back... If all hurricanes were goal post splitters like this one is apparently going to be, what would be the fun in tracking them? Face it, 'canes are a lot more interesting when they become Andrews, Katrinas, and Harveys. No one's going to remember a category 5 hurricane if it impacts nothing along the way. It's horrible watching the damage, but it's what fuels the hobby... That is debateable, enjoying high wind events and damage are two different things. It would be easy to confuse the two however as you need damage to notice high winds. It is a side effect rather than something we want. I have only wishcasted for damage one time and that was for a good cause, to wake up climate change skeptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: The way I see it, every kind of stormy weather has destructive potential. If we wanted to get rid of it, we'd just have rotating sunny and mild followed by some rain/snow (depending on season) then and again, and that'd make following weather boring. Answer the question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: That is debateable, enjoying high wind events and damage are two different things. It would be easy to confuse the two however as you need damage to notice high winds. It is a side effect rather than something we want. I have only wishcasted for damage one time and that was for a good cause, to wake up climate change skeptics. Why damage never occurred in the 1600S,? ever hear of the colonial hurricane, pretty silly reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Why damage never occurred in the 1600S,? ever hear of the colonial hurricane, pretty silly reasoning In hindsight, it's a goofy debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Answer the question No. (to your question) Just saying having 'canes to track toward the coast is what makes the hobby more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Reason why OTS might not work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I'm definitely on board for a 1635 repeat in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: No. (to your question) Just saying having 'canes to track toward the coast is what makes the hobby more interesting. Agree, the debate was over your casa like DIT pretends. Believe me Kev would regret ever thinking and wishing if anything ever happened to a family member. Experience and age changes perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Reason why OTS might not work Reason why OTS is a good guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Doesn't need to be a cat 5 to remember a storm hitting the US mainland, I think any cane folks would remember it, Gloria and Bob come to mind up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The eps is showing track through the Herbert box. Normally the development so far north and east is death (5 percent climo prob) but the wsw motion makes this more interesting than your typical cv taking a west to northwest track through the central atlantic. I think the high amplitude trough misses to the north if it can keep closer to the farther south progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I don't care to remember it. I'm happy to watch it from a safe distance. I already experienced a cat 2 storm and that one tore my neighbourhood up. I'll gladly pass. Doesn't mean I don't want to watch this blow it's top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Reason why OTS is a good guess SW Dive tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 20 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: SW Dive tho 2 posts showing both possibilities tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 That's a big azz cluster coming off the coast of Africa behind Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Making a call on a Cape Verde just named at 31/16 Is just a guess not a call. It's an informed guess, and I'll probably be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Always good to call for a hit when the system is in the Cape Verdes. Always happens here in SNE. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I love September CV storms....when they're born they have so much promise....it's like spring training..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: You shouldn't track it then if you already quit on it A weenie mind can not assimilate a conservative viewpoint. There is nothing else to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I guess many of you would love to see your house get blown away, never understood why people root for hurricanes so much even weather junkies. My house won't get blown away. It's like living in New England and crying about blizzards...don't live there. Every region has natural risks. I don't control the $hit, so bring that crap to OT. We're here to discuss weather. I'll root for interesting weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Kev will like the 00z GFS solution... even though its just after truncation at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The 0Z Euro takes Irma directly over Cuba at 240 hours. The 6z GFS is way west of 0z approaching the Southeast coast at 240 hours. It then slams NC all the way up to NYC and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 The models keep bringing this closer to a east coast landfall vs ots. GFS still maintaining its ~900mb strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 A concencus track between the Euro and GFS slams a high end major into the FL East coast. To me it really comes down to the depth and amplitude of that trough along the East coast days 8-9. A Sandy esque capture is possible, a Floyd/Irene/Bob track is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Actually the 00z GFS track reminds me of the LI Express. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Those GFS runs were great fun. Goodbye Maine on the 00z. Worth remembering what Scott said about the GFS drastically over strengthening cyclones since the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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