yoda Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Gfs. Ukie and canadian develop invest 92l at 12z.... GFS boots it out to sea quickly... CMC is like a nor'easter, but too far off the coast for many really (even though its hilarious to look at)... 12z UKIE looks like a way weaker version of the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 It's still too early to say if it goes OTS or is closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, yoda said: GFS boots it out to sea quickly... CMC is like a nor'easter, but too far off the coast for many really (even though its hilarious to look at)... 12z UKIE looks like a way weaker version of the CMC NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 26.6N 78.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 22.08.2017 48 26.6N 78.5W 1012 23 0000UTC 23.08.2017 60 27.1N 79.5W 1010 25 1200UTC 23.08.2017 72 27.7N 79.9W 1006 29 0000UTC 24.08.2017 84 28.7N 79.2W 1000 33 1200UTC 24.08.2017 96 30.0N 78.4W 995 43 0000UTC 25.08.2017 108 31.6N 76.8W 986 51 1200UTC 25.08.2017 120 33.4N 75.2W 979 57 0000UTC 26.08.2017 132 35.6N 73.1W 976 66 1200UTC 26.08.2017 144 37.5N 71.3W 972 72 0 likes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 26.6N 78.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 22.08.2017 48 26.6N 78.5W 1012 23 0000UTC 23.08.2017 60 27.1N 79.5W 1010 25 1200UTC 23.08.2017 72 27.7N 79.9W 1006 29 0000UTC 24.08.2017 84 28.7N 79.2W 1000 33 1200UTC 24.08.2017 96 30.0N 78.4W 995 43 0000UTC 25.08.2017 108 31.6N 76.8W 986 51 1200UTC 25.08.2017 120 33.4N 75.2W 979 57 0000UTC 26.08.2017 132 35.6N 73.1W 976 66 1200UTC 26.08.2017 144 37.5N 71.3W 972 72 0 likes Whats that from? And I am guessing its the CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Whats that from? And I am guessing its the CMC? That would be the 12z UKMet text output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Just now, Vice-Regent said: That would be the 12z UKMet text output. Oh well its still a good 200-300 miles off teh coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Just now, yoda said: Oh well its still a good 200-300 miles off teh coast Sadly I don't have the H5 charts for the end of the run. I feel this system bears watching. It reminds me of Hermine in a sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 40 minutes ago, WXEnthusiast said: It's still too early to say if it goes OTS or is closer to the coast. Its most definitely, unequivocally and without question, out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its most definitely, equivocally and without question, out to sea. Prove it then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 Just now, WXEnthusiast said: Prove it then Sure. Give me a few days- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Sure. Give me a few days- I just don't understand how you could be so confident so far out it still hasn't even developed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its most definitely, unequivocally and without question, out to sea. Times have changed to be sure. There is more than one way to get a TC up there. The phased left-hooking TCs are usually reserved for October/November. The north moving TCs can impact New England in August by simply riding the left axis of the Bermuda High. We don't have that setup in this case where the departing trough is blocking the system and stalling it out. AKA Hermine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 9 minutes ago, WXEnthusiast said: I just don't understand how you could be so confident so far out it still hasn't even developed yet. The timing of its development does nothing to alter the long wave pattern, and the fact that a trough will be ready to steer whatever the hell is there between the goal posts. Not one model supports a US strike, and it isn't like this thing is near the CV islands....its not that far out. The one wild card is model biases, which in these situations, is decidedly to the left....which means that there is about a snowball's chance in DC of this correcting towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Times have changed to be sure. There is more than one way to get a TC up there. The phased left-hooking TCs are usually reserved for October/November. The north moving TCs can impact New England in August by simply riding the left axis of the Bermuda High. We don't have that setup in this case where the departing trough is blocking the system and stalling it out. AKA Hermine. Unfortunately, there are more than a million ways to either not get one up here at all, or ensure that its a pedestrian event by the time that it does make it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Unfortunately, there are more than a million ways to either not get one up here at all, or ensure that its a pedestrian event by the time that it does make it up here. Your just making yourself look stupid assuming this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Unfortunately, there are more than a million ways to either not get one up here at all, or ensure that its a pedestrian event by the time that it does make it up here. I feel this inspires some confidence. Long Island is the place to be for TCs in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 Just now, WXEnthusiast said: Your just making yourself look stupid assuming this far out. *You're* just making yourself look like a weenie hallucinating a threat into existence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXEnthusiast Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: *You're* just making yourself look like a weenie hallucinating a threat into existence. I'm not disagreeing nor agreeing with your assumption I just think it is not wise of you to forecast the path of 92L when it's days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Vice-Regent said: I feel this inspires some confidence. Long Island is the place to be for TCs in the NE. It doesn't inspire crap. First of all, OHC maps are of more benefit because it is the DEPTH of warm water, not the temperature of the shallow surface skin that plays an instrumental role in determining how well a northward traveling cyclone maintains it intensity. Secondly, even OHC is just one of several different reasons why cyclones weaken as they approach the mid latitudes....ie, dry air entrainment, sheer, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 1 minute ago, WXEnthusiast said: I'm not disagreeing nor agreeing with your assumption I just think it is not wise of you to forecast the path of 92L when it's days out. Obviously there is an element of sarcasm...I am frustrated with the tropics in general, but I honestly do not see much of a threat here. Sure, anything can happen, but its a very, very low, even lower than average, which is minuscule, probability of occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Upper levels may get more hostile too in early September in MDR. I'm with Ray. One look at water vapor and it does not inspire a lot of hope for anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Upper levels may get more hostile too in early September in MDR. I'm with Ray. One look at water vapor and it does not inspire a lot of hope for anything right now. There is a theory out there that states the MDR is unfavorable when the East Coast is favorable and vice-versa. Funny how that works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 50 minutes ago, WXEnthusiast said: I'm not disagreeing nor agreeing with your assumption I just think it is not wise of you to forecast the path of 92L when it's days out. Not speaking for Ray but I think it was in part sardonic? Sardonic stuff is based in half truths - he's trying to qualify the half that is true with synoptic explanation. However, "sardonics" are usually done in the spirit of commiseration, and the only response should be "ha" ..." I hear ya"... "Yeah I know what mean...." etc... Your line of pressing sounds like you missed the dark humor of it, and are instead being pissed off because you just don't like the implication - that's how the social dynamics in here has always been. just fyi - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not speaking for Ray but I think it was in part sardonic? Sardonic stuff is based in half truths - he's trying to qualify the half that is true with synoptic explanation. However, "sardonics" are usually done in the spirit of commiseration, and the only response should be "ha" ..." I hear ya"... "Yeah I know what mean...." etc... Your line of pressing sounds like you missed the dark humor of it, and are instead being pissed off because you just don't like the implication - that's how the social dynamics in here has always been. just fyi - Dude, this is a weather forum, take your therapy session somewhere else lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Dude, this is a weather forum, take your therapy session somewhere else lol See ..this is an example of someone defensive because it exposes them LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not speaking for Ray but I think it was in part sardonic? Sardonic stuff is based in half truths - he's trying to qualify the half that is true with synoptic explanation. However, "sardonics" are usually done in the spirit of commiseration, and the only response should be "ha" ..." I hear ya"... "Yeah I know what mean...." etc... Your line of pressing sounds like you missed the dark humor of it, and are instead being pissed off because you just don't like the implication - that's how the social dynamics in here has always been. just fyi - Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: See ..this is an example of someone defensive because it exposes them LOL I admitted it....it is reality and empirically based, but the exaggeration is born of deep frustration with the tropics that has been brooding for several seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 MDR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 24 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: There is a theory out there that states the MDR is unfavorable when the East Coast is favorable and vice-versa. Funny how that works. Maybe this is why the tropics have been so maddening...now, if we could just find some sort of meteorological elixir for these nuances, we could end society as we know it in shot order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: MDR? Main Development Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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