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Tropical Season 2017


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11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Ray, you don't think the front to the north of Gert could clip Cape Cod with rainfall?

I haven't even examined that, but it seems possible....some sort of interaction with the front.

Wouldn't be very interesting as far as most are concerned...but sure.

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I think the closer to the last week in August from the 21st through the 27th a threat will be made to New England

Seems plausible.

Things certainly look to heat up.....I will be in Seattle from 8-25 through 9-4, so book a major impact within that window. :lol:

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Gert is quickly expanding its outflow channel to the north, outflow is improving in all quadrants, it still shows hints of westward motion just west of due north, outflow channel developing towards the equator.  Banding getting stronger in all quadrants, sign of an intensifying tropical storm, with a strong CDO present and an eye trying to pop out from time to time, but the eye is not stable enough to clear out or the eye wall is not strong enough yet to support the eye to clear out.  I think 95-105mph is possible by tomorrow afternoon.  And peak intensity could be around 105-120mph

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58 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Gert is quickly expanding its outflow channel to the north, outflow is improving in all quadrants, it still shows hints of westward motion just west of due north, outflow channel developing towards the equator.  Banding getting stronger in all quadrants, sign of an intensifying tropical storm, with a strong CDO present and an eye trying to pop out from time to time, but the eye is not stable enough to clear out or the eye wall is not strong enough yet to support the eye to clear out.  I think 95-105mph is possible by tomorrow afternoon.  And peak intensity could be around 105-120mph

I'm not sure about anything stronger than 100 mph. There's two degrees Celsius drop in SST over next 48 hours and northerly shear should remain about 15-20 knots per SHIPS. Due to this, most models aren't excited about rapid intensification other than the HWRF. We'll see, I suppose.

EDIT: GFS strengthens Gert down to 960 mb. Hmm... this will be fun to watch.

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23 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

 

EDIT: GFS strengthens Gert down to 960 mb. Hmm... this will be fun to watch.

This just illustrates how badly our modeling continues to struggle with intensification forecasts. Storms forecast to go boom fizzle, and those that look doomed go boom. Joaquin was expected to get torn apart by shear and wound up a cat 4. Matthew went from tropical storm to cat 5 in about a day. No model saw that coming. Just so much we still don't understand beyond broadly favorable conditions for intensification.  On the flip side, however, tracking errors have been coming down steadily in the last decade.

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14 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Does look like Gert has something of a veiled eye feature on the vis satellite. Not sure if it's legit or just coincidental.

We will need to look at microwave imagery later when it's fresher, but it does look like deep convection is starting to wrap around the storm's center.

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5 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I think Gert is a Hurricane and Harvey will threaten the Islands and then the East Coast in the next 12 days

That system is skunked....mid latitude influences abound....drier air and shear precluding development beyond that of a minimal hurricane at best.

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