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July 18-26th Heatwave


Chicago Storm

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Here's what DMX had to say

The current forecast dewpoints in the low to mid 70s is likely on
the high side with the exception in the immediate vicinity and
north of the boundary. The lack of widespread rainfall over a
large portion of central and southern Iowa will minimize
evapotranspiration from crops. Thursday and Friday in particular
also have the potential to be good mixing days south of the
boundary and very well could mix surface dew points into the 60s.
If this mixing does occur and dew points drop, a few locations
could reach 100 Thursday and Friday. A review of Des Moines 100
degree days from 1934-2013, only 16 of the 160 days had dew points
of 70 or greater at the time of max temperature. Another common
factor for 100 degree days at Des Moines is that they are
typically preceded by a dry period which fits the current
scenario.
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4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Obviously convection dependent, but Thursday will be a day to watch for areas north of the current heat headlines.

sfctapp.us_mw.thumb.png.7760d10f97d4f7ea88158aa9944e9ff4.png

Wow look at the boundary in southern Wisconsin 104 in madison while its 79 in baraboo. If that happens I bet we will probably get storms of some sort. Heck their might be towns that are in the 100's in one part and 70's in another. Good thing ill be up north at by then.

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4 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Wow look at the boundary in southern Wisconsin 104 in madison while its 79 in baraboo. If that happens I bet we will probably get storms of some sort. Heck their might be towns that are in the 100's in one part and 70's in another. Good thing ill be up north at by then.

Just so there's no confusion, that is a heat index map, not actual temperatures.

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Topped out at 89 at ORD and 90 at MDW today.

Might be the warmest of this stretch around here, unless Thursday can produce.

I'm actually feeling semi-good about Thursday's potential, but we have all seen how things can go wrong.  At this point, the timing may be such to allow for a fairly long window before any redevelopment.  If that's the case, it will come down to how potent any leftover cold pool/outflow is. 

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5 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I am assuming that the GFS overdoes dews, with it showing widespread 80° over Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana Thurs-Sat.

You typically need a very moist airmass with light winds/little mixing to get it widespread like that.  If it's exceptionally moist aloft, then perhaps you could get away with a little more mixing and still maintain 80.  

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90/77/105 here. Definitely feels soupy out there, hate that feeling of stepping outside and your shirt damn near instantly clings to your back. 

Picked up 0.63” of much needed rainfall this morning, just added to the tropical feel outside. 

 

Only Midwest folks know what I’m saying when I say, “you can tell we are getting later in summer, when you can start to smell the corn in the air” 

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

NAM has been really bullish on temps in Iowa tomorrow.  This is southeast of Des Moines.

59701db9b3f9e_2017072000_NAM_021_41.25-92.47_severe_ml.thumb.png.775903c20ddcda1e91f89358c41e7739.png

Impressive.  

Could be a pretty interesting contrast between a very hot/well mixed BL like above, and very high dews with lower temps just to the north.  These storms tonight will likely lay out a boundary that pools dews quite nicely tomorrow just northeast of the hottest temps.  MLI going with a peak heat index of 107 for them tomorrow.  

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