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July 18-27th Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Nice discrete supercell in se Iowa. It is in an area of extreme cape. Has a decent couplet. Looks like it might be interacting with a boundary. We going to get another Iowa trollnado?

Will be some major flash flooding if it doesn't move soon. Storm has been basically in the same spot for a half hour already.

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This will be a dire flood situation for Mt. Pleasant and New London. These echoes keep backbuilding and training. Unreal. These rainfall rates will be profilic with 6000+ cape and ungodly amounts of moisture. My dew hit 82 here today near Peoria. Likely cuz of rain this morning and evapotranspiration from crops

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17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Confirmed EF2 tornado hit my town today, 2 mins from my house, once in 2-3 decade type stuff I think around these parts. ^_^ 

Was it really EF2?  I noticed the discrepancy with the wind speed being listed as 105 mph.  They either made an error with the rating or the wind speed.

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4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

New storms down near Muscatine (now severe warned) boiling up in the 80 degree dewpoint environment a bit ago.  The combination of lots of haze from the humidity, and being out at full 70mm made this pic pretty soft.

25u3y45.jpg

Incredible pic man. My buddy had an incredible pic of that cell by Mt. Pleasant

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10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

New storms down near Muscatine (now severe warned) boiling up in the 80 degree dewpoint environment a bit ago.  The combination of lots of haze from the humidity, and being out at full 70mm made this pic pretty soft.

25u3y45.jpg

Interesting that you can see the evapotranspiration coming off the crop fields.

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Beginning to get quite concerned for this evening. 3KM NAM has been very persistent in tracking a large MCS along roughly the same path as Wednesday's, with some very strong UH values implying at least widespread damaging winds. Forecast sounding 0-3 and 0-1 KM SRH and EHI values are quite high into southwest and south-central WI though, higher than I've seen on some days with considerably higher tornado probability in the SPC outlook.

Even if that threat doesn't materialize, damaging winds combined with heavy rain/saturated ground will likely mean numerous downed trees and power outages. Some areas of southwest and south-central WI, especially the Baraboo River valley in Sauk County will be flirting with 2008 river levels if we get much more rain tonight.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Tonight/early tomorrow looks like the prime time of concern in the flooded area of WI/IL.  After Saturday AM, it looks like the boundary gets shoved far enough south to reduce the threat.

Latest hi res model depictions not looking pretty. I'm just hoping things are relatively progressive and don't sit and train over us like last week. The orientation of the LLJ later tonight is concerning.

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15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Was it really EF2?  I noticed the discrepancy with the wind speed being listed as 105 mph.  They either made an error with the rating or the wind speed.

Confirmed today of EF 2 rating with a 5 mile track 700 foot wide path through some of Buffalos most populated suburbs. Basically hit some of the hardest hit areas of the nov 2014 snowstorm. There was even a travel ban for Hamburg and orchard park yesterday, I've never seen that aside from snowstorms here.

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28 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Latest hi res model despictions not looking pretty. I'm just hoping things are relatively progressive and don't sit and train over us like last week. The orientation of the LLJ later tonight is concerning.

Yeah, overall signals aren't good.

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23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Confirmed today of EF 2 rating with a 5 mile track 700 foot wide path through some of Buffalos most populated suburbs. Basically hit some of the hardest hit areas of the nov 2014 snowstorm. There was even a travel ban for Hamburg and orchard park yesterday, I've never seen that aside from snowstorms here.

Looks like they are still going with a 105 mph EF2.  I have to say I've never seen something like that where the estimated wind speed falls into a different category, and I'm surprised they are even allowed to do that.  The survey text wasn't that detailed so I'm wondering what the EF2 damage was based on.

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Not surprising the late-day action has been shifted south.  The convection has hung on over northern Iowa through midday and clouds are pretty thick across the northern half of the state.  The latest sat loop shows a significant outflow boundary sinking south through Cedar Rapids.  Earlier peeks of sun had us up into the 80s, but we just fell back to the mid/upper 70s behind the boundary.  Southern Iowa is currently in the 90s.  My area may be in the right spot for some severe cells later.

Edit: There is also a little spin over se SD and some little cells are bubbling up near Sioux City, so this could be a player later.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like they are still going with a 105 mph EF2.  I have to say I've never seen something like that where the estimated wind speed falls into a different category, and I'm surprised they are even allowed to do that.  The survey text wasn't that detailed so I'm wondering what the EF2 damage was based on.

Yeah, I'm not sure on that either. Thought maybe it was an error at first. The images coming from that parking lot in BuffaloWeather's links are definitely impressive, with branches embedded in leather car seats, and what appears to be plywood (?) driven underneath the window of a red Subaru. Perhaps that's what garnered the EF2 rating? Even so, the estimated winds being UNDER EF2 rating is puzzling.

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