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griteater

Winter 17-18 Speculation

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5 hours ago, FallsLake said:

With JB, CPC, and now the Old Farmers Almanac saying warmer than normal temps and below normal snow; we're going to have some blockbuster winter storms.

But seriously, it's impossible to say the SE is going to be above or below dealing with snow. Maybe for temps, where enso tends to be more reliable. As other always state, it just take one good storm to get many to average or above.

Look at the last post I have above. There are some really good years for winter storms during la nina. Granted there are also some bad years, but how can you forecast which will predominate.  

Yeah for snowfall in the east most of everyone can see there average snowfall in just one storm and be 70 degrees the next week lol. It is vastly different for the mountains. We need a mix of southern storms and plenty of NW snowfall. 

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah for snowfall in the east most of everyone can see there average snowfall in just one storm and be 70 degrees the next week lol. It is vastly different for the mountains. We need a mix of southern storms and plenty of NW snowfall. 

Seasonal snowfall above or below is an easier forecast for the mountains for sure.  Easier, not easy. As you said, down here you are trying to forecast whether we will have 2 hours of snow or 8 hours of snow over a three-month period. That's all it takes to be below or above for the winter.  Good luck with that.

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5 minutes ago, jburns said:

Seasonal snowfall above or below is an easier forecast for the mountains for sure.  Easier, not easy. As you said, down here you are trying to forecast whether we will have 2 hours of snow or 8 hours of snow over a three-month period. That's all it takes to be below or above for the winter.  Good luck with that.

Yeah we usually will get snow but how much and it can be very locally heavy in spots. Down east you are dealing with the warm layers, the track of the low, CAD, moisture, timing, speed, I mean it is a whole slew of things that goes into have a good snowfall down east. Yall also have a much higher percentage of a forecast busting also.

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On the seasonal snow topic, it's why I prefer to issue an outlook forecast for our region in terms of prospects, as opposed to hard and fast numbers.  So it's like "I project the prospects for snow and ice threats (quality & quantity) to be above/below normal this winter."  That's how I like to roll with it anyway.

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18 minutes ago, griteater said:

On the seasonal snow topic, it's why I prefer to issue an outlook forecast for our region in terms of prospects, as opposed to hard and fast numbers.  So it's like "I project the prospects for snow and ice threats (quality & quantity) to be above/below normal this winter."  That's how I like to roll with it anyway.

I actually prefer this outlook unlike a hard number outlook. There is just a huge percentage to be completely wrong when listing hard numbers. I think the prospect of snow outside the mountains is a good way to go. Also Grit when will we get your outlook this season?

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4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I actually prefer this outlook unlike a hard number outlook. There is just a huge percentage to be completely wrong when listing hard numbers. I think the prospect of snow outside the mountains is a good way to go. Also Grit when will we get your outlook this season?

By Halloween, thanks

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On 9/14/2017 at 9:23 PM, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

And somehow it has parts of North and South Dakota as mild/wet.

I can't imagine it raining in North Dakota in January.

 I was looking through historical weather data, and Bismarck seems to get January rain once or twice a decade on average.

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

CPC just updated their seasonal outlook. As noted on the image, you would have to think they're assuming more app/lake lows this winter.

 

aaaa.jpg

That is really not  a bad look. I actually welcome the Nina too cool things down a bit. The extreme Nino was horrible for us.

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SAI tends to work better in conjunction with pressure patterns. Snow advance should include AN pressure in Siberia over BN press in China. Such a pattern is blocky in Asia. Snow advance with BN press in Siberia and AN press in China is just a fast active early season jet stream, but mild. Keep it simple. Look for a blocky pattern in Asia and hope North America gets blocky a few weeks later.

Conversely slow snow advance may not be a deal killer if the pressure patterns are set up right. Maybe just dry in Siberia? A slow advance with zonal Asian jet stream would of course be discouraging to snow lovers. Still, it is just one tool. I post in SE since we need blocking more than most regions.

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On Thursday, September 21, 2017 at 1:31 PM, mackerel_sky said:

Awesome! Lake lows are our friend! :(

Cpc is just going standard nina climo. Northern stream winter with predominant track pac nw>northern rockies>upper mw. Probabilistic forecasting that's probalistically right. 

This is one of those years where both our regions will be rooting for the same thing...and since we haven't seen a big red ball of AN heights planted over Greenland or ne canada since basically January of 2011, the patented and highly technical WD (we're due) Index is raging in our favor. Time scales of the WDI are tricky though because blocking may not show up until next year or the year after that. 

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14 hours ago, griteater said:

^ Good to see you in here Bob C

Here are snow anomaly maps (% of normal snow) for each decade since the 1950's.  Begins with the map for the 2010's...

 

qQp9vTb.png

 

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utBrg8T.png

 

6pqtybk.png

 

LZYIeov.png

 

Dp3bB9z.png

 

CvLR5i3.png

 

Pretty awesome maps.  You can see the impacts of huge storms like 1973, 1993, Carolina crusher, the Christmas 1989 storm in SC, mpacting the means over the course of a decade.  Very cool and thank you for posting. 

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On 9/29/2017 at 11:24 PM, griteater said:

^ Good to see you in here Bob C

Here are snow anomaly maps (% of normal snow) for each decade since the 1950's.  Begins with the map for the 2010's...

 

qQp9vTb.png

 

feZugP4.png

 

utBrg8T.png

 

6pqtybk.png

 

LZYIeov.png

 

Dp3bB9z.png

 

CvLR5i3.png

 

Really cool info!  Thanks for posting!

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Well written article about U.S. temperature trends using "Optimum Climate Normals".  Article states, "you can see that for temperature, the trends during the summer are much larger, and during spring and fall are more expansive, than the trends during the winter. In fact, much of the country has been near the 1981-2010 average during the winter months of the past 15 years" - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/another-non-enso-thing-affects-seasonal-forecasts

 

qSrYneq.png

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IRI is cooler this month than last. CFS is about the same, keeping us around normal in January and February, but warm October through December. It's gonna be a rough ride.

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The following comments are from this morning's long term forecast discussion from KGSP.  Hope it doesn't become a recurring theme this winter:

Stubborn upper ridging in
place over the Southeast will force the low/front to pass to our
north, not really making it through our area, with highs by midweek
a handful of degrees above seasonal normals. May see some reprieve
at the end of the period with a transitory damming event, but
confidence low on that.

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