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Winter 17-18 Speculation


griteater

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If you think it's going to be a mild winter more than likely you wrong. Hell I could be wrong too. But atm and since Irma. I've noticed a huge pattern flip. Yes even with the "hottest temps" of the summer with in the last month. Since Irma really hasn't been any rain on the WC. But you got to look higher then h850. Higher than h5. Look at h2 h250 h3. For the last month I've notice a lot of troughs wanting to set up in eastern Canada and EC. Yeah it may take some snow pack to help lock in the pattern but thing I've noticed the ridge getting stronger in the west and a pretty significant piece of the PV trying to set up in central Canada and East Canada. Who knows the frontal phase with Philipee well of shore will probably strengthen the broad up low/PV lube.  Its not gonna be mild like last winter in any doubt. I don't think so too many signals atm to support a scorching west chilly East. Don't get me wrong though there will be breaks in between. But compare to last year where the SE was dominated by EC ridge. Don't think that's the case. Gonna be a Rocky Mountain East type of winter. I will say this if the Euro/GFS remotely correct then what snow pack forms in the next week or two should lock in PV around Hudson Bay.

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Remember it's not what you look like when you start November but what the mirror says at the end of November that counts. Kickoff is Dec 1st. As we transition through the normal ebbs and flows this month the seasonal long wave pattern will begin to unfold and reveal it's hand in 30 days to start met winter. A great sign to look for on the Atlantic side is the AO. If it's trending or in negative camp as we roll into Dec that usually spells , signals good things to come NAO wise down the road. If it's an established + pattern, signal the first couple weeks of Dec, then that tells you you'll only be seeing small windows of help from the atlantic the rest of winter. Most importantly from the Pacific it's the pna. Hope it's shooting through the roof and stays posotive all winter. This is imo always the main driver of our winter patterns, how the NE pacific is playing out. Not expecting a wall to wall cold and somewhat concerned anytime la Nina is the hand we are dealt. If it can stay weak we have a shot to catch a break or 2. If it locks in moderate well be like last winter or the winter of the crusher and just praying, hoping to catch a 5 to 10 day door of opportunity. I like what others in the know folks are selling and thats "La-Nina  is on life suport" and even so its affects to affect the atmosphere in any way shape or form are minor this upcoming year and by Jan 1 those eeffects will be over allowing other signals to drive the pattern. Still a good chance the weak fading Nina may never be driving the pattern by Dec 1st. Time will tell.

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NC needs to root for the -NAO.  According to the NC Climate Office, that's the most important factor to getting snow here. Of course, we had the -NAO and +PNA combo  that usually gives us the most snow a few winters back (2014-2015), and I don't think we even got to average aroind here that winter. Part of the reason I wonder if what worked in the past applies anymore.

Here's what the climate office said.

Global patterns do not occur independently; they occur on overlapping timescales, and have important interactions that can magnify or diminish the effects of an individual pattern. 

For example, the warm (positive) phase of the ENSO cycle, better known as El Niño, typically results in a more active southern jet stream, which ultimately leads to increased precipitation across the southeastern U.S. during the winter. When a negative NAO is in place during an El Niño winter, cold, Arctic air is transported towards the southeastern U.S. with enhanced precipitation potential due to the El Niño effect, and research at the SCO has found that the number of snow days in NC increase significantly in all four winter months. 

The chart below shows the average number of snow days (with ≥1 inch of snow) in central and eastern NC, broken down by NAO and ENSO phase. 


[IMG]


Our results found that a negative NAO combined with a positive ENSOphase (El Niño) resulted in the most snow days on average, with an increase of 25% (or more) in snow days for all four winter months. 

A positive NAO combined with a negative ENSO (La Niña) resulted in the greatest decrease
 in average snow days. This is due to a lack of cold air (results of a typical positive NAO), and less active subtropical jet stream (results of a typical La Niña). 

NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days, which suggests that the NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. The reason behind this is that the NAO directly impacts the large scale atmospheric pattern over the eastern U.S. on a daily timescale, whereas the ENSO pattern indirectly effects the eastern U.S. atmospheric pattern by altering global circulations, and does so on monthly to seasonal timescales.

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With a La Nina pattern, our STJ storms are going to be limited.  The NAO will be very important this year.  95-96 is the best you can ask for in terms on defying the La Nina climo with a -NAO.  Hopefully it'll return this year... it would be welcomed greatly.

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Fishel going with 3 to 6 inches of snow here. Said 45% of past La Ninas in last 20 years had that range, while 33% had more than 6 inches. So the odds are actually in our favor here. Oh, and some of the biggest single storms we had in the last 20 years were during La Nina, including the January 2000 Carolina Crusher.

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Be mindfull Jan 2000 had the greatest 10 day stretch of winter weather in Central Carolina history. However most of the winter was blah. So you take the good with the bad in LA nina. Requires patience and understanding it's not wall to wall and has more bleek looking days than GLORY. So don't freak when folks are posting indices and TCS showing crap. This year we'll get a couple of windows of opportunity. Just know will have windows of garbage to watching the upper midwest and NW get pummeled on tv.

 

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1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

Be mindfull Jan 2000 had the greatest 10 day stretch of winter weather in Central Carolina history. However most of the winter was blah. So you take the good with the bad in LA nina. Requires patience and understanding it's not wall to wall and has more bleek looking days than GLORY. So don't freak when folks are posting indices and TCS showing crap. This year we'll get a couple of windows of opportunity. Just know will have windows of garbage to watching the upper midwest and NW get pummeled on tv.

 

Good post.  I'd take a sucky winter for a 10 day repeat of Jan 2000.

LC's winter forecast is out.  Brutal.  December and January are much above normal for the SE.  February cools down to only just above normal.  And March is back touch above.  Precipitation looks to dance generally around the normal mark all four months.  Yuck.

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On 10/29/2017 at 8:01 PM, SimeonNC said:

Do you think we'll see a long-running -NAO this year? Honestly unless the indices take a turn for the worst I think we have a chance imo.

Impossible to know this far in advance... All we have is history to guide us, and doesn't tell us much.  We have had 4 years in a row of +NAO DJFM winters so far.  Since 1864, there have been 8 instances with a +NAO streak lasting 4 or more years.  5 of the 8 went on to give us another +NAO.  

aLPYw7I.png

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24 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Good winter coming, I can feel it in these snowy bones! Timing is all it takes............. When moisture and Cold meet up, sure there will be warm weather (ALWAYS IS) but my hunch is a decent winter for the SE in terms of Snow/Ice!!! So put BIG FROSTY down on the optimistic side. :shiver::snowing:

The sad thing is, these cold and moisture meet ups, always happen about 5 miles North of my house and Cold rains house, especially at the 850 meetings :(

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3 hours ago, Wow said:

Impossible to know this far in advance... All we have is history to guide us, and doesn't tell us much.  We have had 4 years in a row of +NAO DJFM winters so far.  Since 1864, there have been 8 instances with a +NAO streak lasting 4 or more years.  5 of the 8 went on to give us another +NAO.  

aLPYw7I.png

Interesting to note the New-England-Patriots-in-the-AFC-East-like dominance of the +NAO since 1970.  I wonder if that is natural variation or an AGW signature.

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For winter lovers it is key that our Niña stays to the east side of the ENSO region.   If current trends continue, 3.4 will actually go back into neutral territory today. 

If you want blocking to favor the East coast this winter u want to see the 3.4 region hang out in the -.6 to -.8 range for a lot of November.  If the Niña becomes more of a central based and leans moderate, blocking will be in trouble. 

 

The key this winter is a weak Nina.  The weaker it is the more unsettled the winter pattern will be. The stronger the Niña the more unfavorable winter becomes. 

 

Weak nina=the chance to have a few glorious periods of blocking.

 

 

If I had to guess about temps this winter I would be very wary of forecasting any month more than 1 or 2 degrees above OR below normal.  These rollercoaster winters are impossible to predict. 

 

All in all IF we are constantly in a roller coaster of patterns this winter it bodes well for big snows.  The major ice/snow storm in Western NC last winter was on the end of a cold pattern during the transition. 

 

Id day the chance for a major snow/ice storm across NC IS heightened this winter.  Multiple flips in pattern will leave us with an unusual amount of big dog chances. 

While I think temps lean on the AN side this winter I also think our chance of a major storm is higher than normal.

 

E8EAAE16-94DC-4C1B-B43B-7990EECA15B9.png.1a686f69ab816f92ed801b4139e2f63f.png

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I recently took ALL weak and moderate nina winters and split them into two groups. The first group was Central based (with a 3.4 region colder than the 1.2 region) and the second was East based.  This was done by eyeballing the SST maps for these nina's. So its very possible there are a couple years mixed up but the majority were very clearly either Central or East.

 

First  here is the composite for the Central based nina winters. Again some of these winter years were extremely hard to determine where the cold pools set up but this is a good composite for Central Nina.

59f87d5b96e02_dec-febcompW.png.9e3b7f8e7c7b615e55acff569fd889da.png

 

Here is the composite for the East based Nina

59f87da611116_Dec-Febcomp.png.6f6e1cc5ca1158c7f71a4aaa8c3705f9.png

 

Interestingly enough, you can see a east based nina actually averages more of the US above normal but the NC temps are cooler.

 

Let me know if any years are WAY off but I think this shows that this winter could easily be close to normal with an east based nina 

 

Here is one of the latest SSTA maps

59f87e23d8e6a_currentSSTA.gif.f7adc4158039d794e03e127b1116796e.gif

 

 

It seems the east based Niña years feature flips from warm to cold patterns. More so than a central Niña. Even with temps likely just above normal this winter I think we have a decent shot at some snow/ice threats. And maybe even an elusive major NC snow for Central-Eastern areas with a lot of transition time between these flips.

 

 

central Niña 

December 

CBDF57CA-1450-4612-8948-F1C0EC47B571.png.fb1f1906582a4cc05dbe0c0bd788d11e.png

January

D0803851-B7EE-4DDA-9448-283367A978A8.png.ad9f0190330e0b62d3e1a708eb6a29c5.png

East nina

December

657FF44F-2369-4090-9D02-DCA9B27859D1.png.d4ab9c309b86594fca06768e043cdc5a.png

January

0B9ED46F-682A-4C03-8B41-7FF8D309E3FE.png.beb8b3e7966a08cc2131f69d65659e46.png

 

I think  based on east Niña heights that December will be our shot at BN temps.  I’ve seen several forecasts with December AN but with current SSTA showing an east based Niña I think the last half of December into January will be our coldest period. 

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14 hours ago, Wow said:

Impossible to know this far in advance... All we have is history to guide us, and doesn't tell us much.  We have had 4 years in a row of +NAO DJFM winters so far.  Since 1864, there have been 8 instances with a +NAO streak lasting 4 or more years.  5 of the 8 went on to give us another +NAO.  

 

That makes me sad, as the "we're due" index is invalidated.  It could go 8 years before we're really due.  

The problem we're going to have I think with a Nina, is we're going to be depending on Northern stream systems, hoping they're going to dig, baby dig (probably the catch phrase of the winter) south enough for us to get in the game.  Without blocking that's going to be unlikely.  I guess that's true in anything other than a Nino but being in a Nina really makes -NAO desirable. 

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2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said:

I recently took ALL weak and moderate nina winters and split them into two groups. The first group was Central based (with a 3.4 region colder than the 1.2 region) and the second was East based.  This was done by eyeballing the SST maps for these nina's. So its very possible there are a couple years mixed up but the majority were very clearly either Central or East.

I think  based on east Niña heights that December will be our shot at BN temps.  I’ve seen several forecasts with December AN but with current SSTA showing an east based Niña I think the last half of December into January will be our coldest period. 

Allan's forecast is out and he works in a similar argument in his ENSO discussion.  East based weak Nina is a bit cooler than central based.  However the wildcard as discussed that's going to make the biggest impact is the NAO.  Not a bad forecast though if he's right.  January and February are close to normal.  Check it out. 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/research/Winter2017-18Forecast.pdf

Thanks for the analysis Allan!

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7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The Carolina Crushed happened during a winter with one of the strongest Ninas on record.

The Carolina Crusher was great and all for Raleigh, but it was weak sauce and kinda warm for CLT IIRC. But yeah, I'm pretty hopeful we can have a decent winter.  Like the beginning of panther's seasons! :unsure:

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Just now, SnowNiner said:

The Carolina Crusher was great and all for Raleigh, but it was weak sauce and kinda warm for CLT IIRC. But yeah, I'm pretty hopeful we can have a decent winter.  Like the beginning of panther's seasons! :unsure:

Let’s just get a storm to blanket SC and NC in 18 inches of snow. That should be good haha

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10 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I'm liking the Pioneer Model change of heart!!

The Pioneer which includes ENSO,ocean warm and cold pools and ocean oscillations, solar and QBO shows a cold winter for all but the southwest.

Screen_Shot_2017_10_31_at_7_36_54_AM.png

That looks really good... Now if the other models would just follow suit, I will get on board. Right now, I am a skeptic of a cold winter.

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