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Winter 17-18 Speculation


griteater

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30 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Well this winter is supposed to be Frontloaded, and the pattern looks like doo doo until atleast mid December! :( tic toc 

Mid-December is, say it with me, the OPTIMAL time for a lengthy pattern change to cold!

This winter is probably not going to be wall to wall cold and snow.  Hopefully, it will not be wall to wall warm either.  If there is to be variability with regard to blocking and cold intrusions, then I'd prefer that to be setting in for a few weeks around mid-December and not fading out at that time.  But that's just me.

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19 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Mid-December is, say it with me, the OPTIMAL time for a lengthy pattern change to cold!

This winter is probably not going to be wall to wall cold and snow.  Hopefully, it will not be wall to wall warm either.  If there is to be variability with regard to blocking and cold intrusions, then I'd prefer that to be setting in for a few weeks around mid-December and not fading out at that time.  But that's just me.

Mid December is probably one of the earliest cases for good snowfall for y'all especially according to climo. Getting snow outside the mountains before mid to late December is like pulling teeth. Shoot getting snow down east in January is hard enough. Mack really just lives in a crappy area. He gets down sloped pretty bad with cold fronts and SC is not really known for there good snowfall...

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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Mid-December is, say it with me, the OPTIMAL time for a lengthy pattern change to cold!

This winter is probably not going to be wall to wall cold and snow.  Hopefully, it will not be wall to wall warm either.  If there is to be variability with regard to blocking and cold intrusions, then I'd prefer that to be setting in for a few weeks around mid-December and not fading out at that time.  But that's just me.

I understand the not getting snow and cold in November and early December. The thing I'm concerned with is, the models were showing some pretty cold air coming for thanksgiving, it was overdone and didn't happen in mby anyway! Then the next great cold blast was Sun/ Mon after Thanksgiving, now I'm looking at low 60s , brrrr! The point being we are already starting the models over doing cold and pushbacks. So when we are waiting now on a great mid December pattern possibly coming at mid month, we've seen this show before already this year and the last couple

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I'm still optimistic. For a cold December, we will need to start seeing good signs on the LR models soon. Not sure about the indices; PNA looks neutral in the LR, NAO looks to average negative in the LR, and the AO looks to go strongly negative in the LR. As I said before, I would love to see the PNA strongly positive.

  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

  

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

I understand the not getting snow and cold in November and early December. The thing I'm concerned with is, the models were showing some pretty cold air coming for thanksgiving, it was overdone and didn't happen in mby anyway! Then the next great cold blast was Sun/ Mon after Thanksgiving, now I'm looking at low 60s , brrrr! The point being we are already starting the models over doing cold and pushbacks. So when we are waiting now on a great mid December pattern possibly coming at mid month, we've seen this show before already this year and the last couple

The pattern they were showing around Thanksgiving wasn't that great. We were going to get cold air because a big upper level low was going to set up over the NE for a few days, cut off from any Arctic air and surrounded by a lot of ridging. It's not surprising it didn't happen. It was a weird set up anyway.

8-10 day Euro actually looks alright. For us in that time frame, it won't be cold, but the pattern looks a lot better, with ridging along the west coast, an Aleutian low, and troughing developing in the central US. It's been showing this type of thing for a few runs now.

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1 hour ago, WidreMann said:

The pattern they were showing around Thanksgiving wasn't that great. We were going to get cold air because a big upper level low was going to set up over the NE for a few days, cut off from any Arctic air and surrounded by a lot of ridging. It's not surprising it didn't happen. It was a weird set up anyway.

8-10 day Euro actually looks alright. For us in that time frame, it won't be cold, but the pattern looks a lot better, with ridging along the west coast, an Aleutian low, and troughing developing in the central US. It's been showing this type of thing for a few runs now.

Yep, that's right.  Mack, the models always seem to rush cold patterns and overdo cold presses in the LR.  It's not new.  I always wonder why it's always mirage cold patterns and not mirage warm patterns that show up.  Got to be something to do with the programming.  Anyway, don't get too discouraged yet by all the warm forecasts.  Going to be plenty of ups and downs this winter.

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13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yep, that's right.  Mack, the models always seem to rush cold patterns and overdo cold presses in the LR.  It's not new.  I always wonder why it's always mirage cold patterns and not mirage warm patterns that show up.  Got to be something to do with the programming.  Anyway, don't get too discouraged yet by all the warm forecasts.  Going to be plenty of ups and downs this winter.

I think we get plenty of mirage warm patterns, we just aren't bothered by them. The CFS painted an almost record breakingly warm November here and this may actually end up being the coolest month relative to normal since February 2015.

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37 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

I think we get plenty of mirage warm patterns, we just aren't bothered by them. The CFS painted an almost record breakingly warm November here and this may actually end up being the coolest month relative to normal since February 2015.

That's a good point.  I haven't looked at the CFS one time this year so far, except what's been posted here.  It seems to me that the LR GFS that we all love seems to show more really cold patterns that don't verify than really warm ones.  But it may just be the bias of looking for cold more than warm, that you mentioned.  Either way, my biggest concern is the background warmth and how that might influence temp patterns this season.

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3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

That's a good point.  I haven't looked at the CFS one time this year so far, except what's been posted here.  It seems to me that the LR GFS that we all love seems to show more really cold patterns that don't verify than really warm ones.  But it may just be the bias of looking for cold more than warm, that you mentioned.  Either way, my biggest concern is the background warmth and how that might influence temp patterns this season.

I think the background temps would affect the pattern more if we were in an el nino. La nina should allow more true arctic cold when blocking occurs. Snow coverage is still looking good over Canada so if we get that blocking, we'll be looking at some of the coldest outbreaks we've seen in many years.  

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On 11/25/2017 at 4:49 PM, Cold Rain said:

That's a good point.  I haven't looked at the CFS one time this year so far, except what's been posted here.  It seems to me that the LR GFS that we all love seems to show more really cold patterns that don't verify than really warm ones.  But it may just be the bias of looking for cold more than warm, that you mentioned.  Either way, my biggest concern is the background warmth and how that might influence temp patterns this season.

I look at the LR GFS quite frequently and believe me it has plenty of warm patterns.

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43 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I have a feeling this winter is going to be a lot of back and forth instead of a certain type of pattern holding on for a long time. I think we'll end up benefiting from that as a lot of energy will be flying around. I have a good feeling about getting some snow in December here. 

It's more than a feeling
(More than a feeling)
When I hear that old song they used to play
(More than a feeling)
I begin dreaming
(More than a feeling)
'Til I see Marianne walk away

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1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said:

I have a feeling this winter is going to be a lot of back and forth instead of a certain type of pattern holding on for a long time. I think we'll end up benefiting from that as a lot of energy will be flying around. I have a good feeling about getting some snow in December here. 

Thanks @WxSouth

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24 minutes ago, isohume said:

It's more than a feeling
(More than a feeling)
When I hear that old song they used to play
(More than a feeling)
I begin dreaming
(More than a feeling)
'Til I see Marianne walk away

I stroke it to the east,

I Stroke it to the west,

I stroke it to the woman I love best:

I be  strokin', that's what I be doin'

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13 minutes ago, Wow said:

FWIW...

 

Week 3: Tall ridge W Canada and Alaska.  -AO.  Weak -NAO.  Eastern U.S. trough.  Below normal temps (850mb).  Max below normal temps centered over Great Lakes / OH Valley.  Normal precip

Week 4: -AO, -NAO.  Western ridging again but weaker.  Trough centered over OH Valley and NE.  Temps below normal NE/Great Lakes/TN Valley/NC.  Dry from Arkansas to the Mid Atlantic and NE

Week 5: -AO/-NAO.  Weak ridging in Alaska/W Canada.  Weak bowl trough across much of the U.S.  Cool in northern 1/2, warmer than normal across TX and Deep South.  Wet in TN Valley/MS/AR

Week 6: Pretty much the same as week 5 but cool across much of the nation except for Florida.  Wet from Carolinas to GA to LA.

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Solar wind at 424.5 km/s for the month,slowly declining and should beat October's 438 km/s.QBO is already identical to 2009-10 and now the solar signal is coming,it's not 2009-10 good yet but it's in the ballpark,I still think you need a number around 400 for a slam dunk call..Solar and QBO signal is almost identical to 2009-10,that's strong in my opinion..Blocking could wax or wane but as long as we don't get any solar blow ups,this should have legs.

I also don't think this MJO or ENSO is driving anything yet.MJO is scattershot,weak,and almost in the COD.ENSO looks watered down so far just by looking at the SOI numbers over 90 days.When and if I see a 582-588dm death ridge parked over Florida for a month,I might change my mind.Both are background drivers,with some influence now and then.

Also I'd watch for possible SSW action,solar/QBO are closely related to this.Remember high solar wind and high EEP levels strengthen the polar vortex.-QBO also weakens the polar vortex so we have both.2009-10 had a strong warming in mid December,a lull then another in mid January.

Bout it,carry on.

 

 

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