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Winter 17-18 Speculation


griteater

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4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I actually prefer this outlook unlike a hard number outlook. There is just a huge percentage to be completely wrong when listing hard numbers. I think the prospect of snow outside the mountains is a good way to go. Also Grit when will we get your outlook this season?

By Halloween, thanks

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SAI tends to work better in conjunction with pressure patterns. Snow advance should include AN pressure in Siberia over BN press in China. Such a pattern is blocky in Asia. Snow advance with BN press in Siberia and AN press in China is just a fast active early season jet stream, but mild. Keep it simple. Look for a blocky pattern in Asia and hope North America gets blocky a few weeks later.

Conversely slow snow advance may not be a deal killer if the pressure patterns are set up right. Maybe just dry in Siberia? A slow advance with zonal Asian jet stream would of course be discouraging to snow lovers. Still, it is just one tool. I post in SE since we need blocking more than most regions.

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On Thursday, September 21, 2017 at 1:31 PM, mackerel_sky said:

Awesome! Lake lows are our friend! :(

Cpc is just going standard nina climo. Northern stream winter with predominant track pac nw>northern rockies>upper mw. Probabilistic forecasting that's probalistically right. 

This is one of those years where both our regions will be rooting for the same thing...and since we haven't seen a big red ball of AN heights planted over Greenland or ne canada since basically January of 2011, the patented and highly technical WD (we're due) Index is raging in our favor. Time scales of the WDI are tricky though because blocking may not show up until next year or the year after that. 

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14 hours ago, griteater said:

^ Good to see you in here Bob C

Here are snow anomaly maps (% of normal snow) for each decade since the 1950's.  Begins with the map for the 2010's...

 

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Pretty awesome maps.  You can see the impacts of huge storms like 1973, 1993, Carolina crusher, the Christmas 1989 storm in SC, mpacting the means over the course of a decade.  Very cool and thank you for posting. 

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Well written article about U.S. temperature trends using "Optimum Climate Normals".  Article states, "you can see that for temperature, the trends during the summer are much larger, and during spring and fall are more expansive, than the trends during the winter. In fact, much of the country has been near the 1981-2010 average during the winter months of the past 15 years" - https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/another-non-enso-thing-affects-seasonal-forecasts

 

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The following comments are from this morning's long term forecast discussion from KGSP.  Hope it doesn't become a recurring theme this winter:

Stubborn upper ridging in
place over the Southeast will force the low/front to pass to our
north, not really making it through our area, with highs by midweek
a handful of degrees above seasonal normals. May see some reprieve
at the end of the period with a transitory damming event, but
confidence low on that.
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Well I  swore at the begining of last winter things couldn't get any worse than the previous. Lo and behold outside of a 5 to 7 day stretch in early January for mby, I had to stomach the unthinkable along with everyone else in the SE.

As we get ready to kickoff a new season I have 0 expectations as of right now. A possible low end moderate LA Nina is a recipe for disaster for most of us on this board 9 times out of 10. However I know from history for mby (area) we never get shutout and usually we manage to have atleast one 6 to 10 day stretch of great winter weather whIle in the throws of a cappy winter pattern. Example would be early Jan 2017 and late Jan 2000. 

Maybe we'll catch a break and get the deck shuffled in a way to help us save face this season. Jury is still out till we progress through November. So fingers crossed but Id cautioned strongly against having alot of optimism right now.  If I could put my finger on 1 tc for 90 days, it would be to spike the pna and lock it in. 

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