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Winter 17-18 Speculation


griteater

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On 9/14/2017 at 8:35 AM, BIG FROSTY said:

JB has updated his winter forecast!! And again it's Cold and Snowy, in The northern Rockies and Plains!!! The coldest air should be centered in the northern Rockies and Plains, with warm in the Southeast. I am confident about warmth in the Southeast.  On a positive note  (If you're a golfer) is it looks to be good wet/golfing weather in the SE.............................. 

I like JB but his really long range forecast back in 2011-2012 did if for me. He really believed that winters would start getting colder and colder each year starting in 2013 & 2014 and was even hinting at a mini ice age scenario for a extended period of time during the winter months???? Needless to say it has been quite the opposite of what he was thinking so, if he is saying warm this winter then I am looking forward to a "Cold & Snowy" winter for everyone in the SE!! :D

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2 hours ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

I like JB but his really long range forecast back in 2011-2012 did if for me. He really believed that winters would start getting colder and colder each year starting in 2013 & 2014 and was even hinting at a mini ice age scenario for a extended period of time during the winter months???? Needless to say it has been quite the opposite of what he was thinking so, if he is saying warm this winter then I am looking forward to a "Cold & Snowy" winter for everyone in the SE!! :D

That's a good bet.  Encouraging for me to see him go warm here.  JB is an awful media attention whore.  I truly believe his forecasts are frequently hyped intentionally to get social media attention and traffic to his paid site.  He was once upon a time a great met but he's certainly sold out to the dollar imo.

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2 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

That's a good bet.  Encouraging for me to see him go warm here.  JB is an awful media attention whore.  I truly believe his forecasts are frequently hyped intentionally to get social media attention and traffic to his paid site.  He was once upon a time a great met but he's certainly sold out to the dollar imo.

Totally agree when he left accu-weather and went out on his own that's when the almighty $$$$$$ blinded him.....

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On 9/16/2017 at 0:00 AM, WidreMann said:

Not that it's worth following the CFS daily gyrations, but it's been trending back again to a cold January and February for the northern tier reaching down into this area (where we'd be about normal). It's similar to the IRI, except it has less warmth in NE Canada. Fingers crossed.

This is an example of a good post with information in an appropriate thread. Is there any way we can dispense with the nearly incessant bashing of JB? I get that some don't think he's very good but my goodness, enough is enough. Stop reading his stuff and complaining about it here.

Thank you and now back to our look ahead please!

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I can buy these forecast. We straight up LA Nina, just look at the tropics. Notice how the east coast trough is no where to be found all of the sudden and the West coast ridge has been replaced with west coast trough. Had a great summer minus few weeks in July thanks to the EC trough. Think we are seeing a big pattern change. Had a good ride/ streak going but the deck is re shuffling and it's Fall equinox.. aka time to an te up.

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Question...is do we get the dreaded AK low this winter...we have had plenty of snowy nina's, though luck goes a long as it always does in any enso.  The displaced aleutian ridge would make for an early trip to Home Depot for pre-emergent...again.   I would prefer the bottom image...but...a warm winter isn't the worst either.

yAkMYJYBfJ.png

 

ta2xaCnBSd.png

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5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Question...is do we get the dreaded AK low this winter...we have had plenty of snowy nina's, though luck goes a long as it always does in any enso.  The displaced aleutian ridge would make for an early trip to Home Depot for pre-emergent...again.   I would prefer the bottom image...but...a warm winter isn't the worst either.

yAkMYJYBfJ.png

 

ta2xaCnBSd.png

That's why thes long range forecasts are so bad! You can have a raging Nino , but it acts like a Niña , or we have the perfect set up with weak Nino , but have tha Alaska low screws the whole pattern! Maybe if we have the perfect warm set up , something will screw it up and we freeze our asses off! :)

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It would be great if winter is as exciting and busy as the hurricane season has been the last month. I don't think the long range forecasts matter at all, though. We've had winters that we were supposed to have record breaking snowfall based on the same setup in years past and didn't even get to average. We've had crappy winters where we had one storm that gave us the biggest snowfall ever. And I don't think all the indices and what happened in the past matter anymore. Things have changed, and it's pretty much just a shot in the dark when it comes to winter storms around here. 

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Sometimes it is even worse, like taking stock tips, lol! 

2 hours ago, MichaelJ said:

I think the Jamstec is going to be close to what we actually see this winter. Then again long range forecasting is sort of like betting a bundle on a horse you have inside info on only to learn he was scratched just before the race.

Believe much will come down to the North Pac and GOA low behavior. I want to say La Nina and -QBO is variable with hope. Avoiding a GOA deal killer is paramount. 

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41 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

It's official now, The Old Farmers Almanac, the 200+ year old, original almanac, says warmer than normal, above normal rainfall, below normal snowfall for our region! :(

I could use the rain though! #EXCITED

With JB, CPC, and now the Old Farmers Almanac saying warmer than normal temps and below normal snow; we're going to have some blockbuster winter storms.

But seriously, it's impossible to say the SE is going to be above or below dealing with snow. Maybe for temps, where enso tends to be more reliable. As other always state, it just take one good storm to get many to average or above.

Look at the last post I have above. There are some really good years for winter storms during la nina. Granted there are also some bad years, but how can you forecast which will predominate.  

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5 hours ago, FallsLake said:

With JB, CPC, and now the Old Farmers Almanac saying warmer than normal temps and below normal snow; we're going to have some blockbuster winter storms.

But seriously, it's impossible to say the SE is going to be above or below dealing with snow. Maybe for temps, where enso tends to be more reliable. As other always state, it just take one good storm to get many to average or above.

Look at the last post I have above. There are some really good years for winter storms during la nina. Granted there are also some bad years, but how can you forecast which will predominate.  

Yeah for snowfall in the east most of everyone can see there average snowfall in just one storm and be 70 degrees the next week lol. It is vastly different for the mountains. We need a mix of southern storms and plenty of NW snowfall. 

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2 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah for snowfall in the east most of everyone can see there average snowfall in just one storm and be 70 degrees the next week lol. It is vastly different for the mountains. We need a mix of southern storms and plenty of NW snowfall. 

Seasonal snowfall above or below is an easier forecast for the mountains for sure.  Easier, not easy. As you said, down here you are trying to forecast whether we will have 2 hours of snow or 8 hours of snow over a three-month period. That's all it takes to be below or above for the winter.  Good luck with that.

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5 minutes ago, jburns said:

Seasonal snowfall above or below is an easier forecast for the mountains for sure.  Easier, not easy. As you said, down here you are trying to forecast whether we will have 2 hours of snow or 8 hours of snow over a three-month period. That's all it takes to be below or above for the winter.  Good luck with that.

Yeah we usually will get snow but how much and it can be very locally heavy in spots. Down east you are dealing with the warm layers, the track of the low, CAD, moisture, timing, speed, I mean it is a whole slew of things that goes into have a good snowfall down east. Yall also have a much higher percentage of a forecast busting also.

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On the seasonal snow topic, it's why I prefer to issue an outlook forecast for our region in terms of prospects, as opposed to hard and fast numbers.  So it's like "I project the prospects for snow and ice threats (quality & quantity) to be above/below normal this winter."  That's how I like to roll with it anyway.

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18 minutes ago, griteater said:

On the seasonal snow topic, it's why I prefer to issue an outlook forecast for our region in terms of prospects, as opposed to hard and fast numbers.  So it's like "I project the prospects for snow and ice threats (quality & quantity) to be above/below normal this winter."  That's how I like to roll with it anyway.

I actually prefer this outlook unlike a hard number outlook. There is just a huge percentage to be completely wrong when listing hard numbers. I think the prospect of snow outside the mountains is a good way to go. Also Grit when will we get your outlook this season?

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