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Winter 17-18 Speculation


griteater

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4 hours ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

Saw the first wooly worm today, about 65%-75% black. According to the old wife's tale the more black on their coats the colder the winter. Here is his first official winter forecast according to the worm: a front end thump of bitter cold and snow for december through january and then a milder period in february (thaw) followed by an back end thump of cold and snow in march according to his stripes. Most years there has been very little black in their coats mostly brown but, I have seen a few times like this one today where there is a good bit more black than brown. Those winters turned out to pretty cold with several snows. We shall see.....

I've seen all black wooly worms, and not had a blockbuster winter! Hope springs eternal each fall, almanacs come out, we look at animals and fogs, acorns, persimmon seeds, etc! I'm optimistic, until it's February, have not had a wintry storm, and we are looking at 300+ hour GFS for any hope of cold , much less snow, and we start throwing around " backloaded" winter, and our " biggest snows" have came in March

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48 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I've seen all black wooly worms, and not had a blockbuster winter! Hope springs eternal each fall, almanacs come out, we look at animals and fogs, acorns, persimmon seeds, etc! I'm optimistic, until it's February, have not had a wintry storm, and we are looking at 300+ hour GFS for any hope of cold , much less snow, and we start throwing around " backloaded" winter, and our " biggest snows" have came in March

You forgot....

1960

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On 8/18/2017 at 9:46 PM, mackerel_sky said:

I've seen all black wooly worms, and not had a blockbuster winter! Hope springs eternal each fall, almanacs come out, we look at animals and fogs, acorns, persimmon seeds, etc! I'm optimistic, until it's February, have not had a wintry storm, and we are looking at 300+ hour GFS for any hope of cold , much less snow, and we start throwing around " backloaded" winter, and our " biggest snows" have came in March

Mack, seeing a black wooly worm and then having a total eclipse all within a few days...... Man this winter has got to be our year here in the Upstate... LOL....;)

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15 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

If they are basing this snowy and cold winter on El Niño, they are probably already wrong! It's looking Niña ish possibly, 

I'm going to go ahead and believe it because what else is there to believe? :D

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12 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

If they are basing this snowy and cold winter on El Niño, they are probably already wrong! It's looking Niña ish possibly, 

Bingo! I saw a couple of preliminary winter forecasts for the east 2 months ago, also assuming a Niño, dead wrong already. There is a zero chance of an El Niño anymore, that ship has sailed. Most likely cold neutral or even very weak La Niña 

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La Nina is looking very likely. Strength is the question. Models not a help since they're all playing major catchup!

Hard to believe a few models were calling for a very strong Nino a few months ago.

As far as winter...too me looks much better at this point. +PNA spikes over the last month, - QBO, & low solar are signs of a potentially much improved winter.

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28 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

La Nina is looking very likely. Strength is the question. Models not a help since they're all playing major catchup!

Hard to believe a few models were calling for a very strong Nino a few months ago.

As far as winter...too me looks much better at this point. +PNA spikes over the last month, - QBO, & low solar are signs of a potentially much improved winter.

And who's to say they don't change back in a October or November? We're still in August. It's all a crap shoot in my opinion.  In my mind what are the chances of 3 warm winters in a row? that's the only thing that has me thinking we're in for a better winter.  All the other variables there's just no way to tell.  

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And who's to say they don't change back in a October or November? We're still in August. It's all a crap shoot in my opinion.  In my mind what are the chances of 3 warm winters in a row? that's the only thing that has me thinking we're in for a better winter.  All the other variables there's just no way to tell.  


Things like the amount of polar blocking and the mean trough/ridge pattern are hard to predict (though some like trying )...but things like ENSO and the QBO can be predicted with good accuracy as we go into the fall
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5 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

And who's to say they don't change back in a October or November? We're still in August. It's all a crap shoot in my opinion.  In my mind what are the chances of 3 warm winters in a row? that's the only thing that has me thinking we're in for a better winter.  All the other variables there's just no way to tell.  

1

A higher chance than this.

The planet hasn’t had a cooler-than-normal month —  nevermind record-setting cool — in 381 months (nearly 32 years).(As of October 2016)

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/hottest-months-global-warming-20797

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3 hours ago, griteater said:


Things like the amount of polar blocking and the mean trough/ridge pattern are hard to predict (though some like trying emoji41.png)...but things like ENSO and the QBO can be predicted with good accuracy as we go into the fall

Yes, but we're only in August still.  I guess I'm just saying let's see where we are in October to come to an ENSO conclusion.  August seems a bit premature.  And, even with a bad ENSO there's no telling how to predict the ridge/trough pattern as you say.  It's chaos I say, chaos! 

14 minutes ago, jburns said:

A higher chance than this.

The planet hasn’t had a cooler-than-normal month —  nevermind record-setting cool — in 381 months (nearly 32 years).(As of October 2016)

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/hottest-months-global-warming-20797

Yes, but in the SE we've gotten a few below average months....wasn't June and July a bit below normal? Don't take away my hope.  It's all I got man.  

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9 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

La Nina is looking very likely. Strength is the question. Models not a help since they're all playing major catchup!

Hard to believe a few models were calling for a very strong Nino a few months ago.

As far as winter...too me looks much better at this point. +PNA spikes over the last month, - QBO, & low solar are signs of a potentially much improved winter.

Which models were calling for Nino? CFS, at least, never was. It's been showing the cooldown since even in the spring.

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3 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

Yes, but we're only in August still.  I guess I'm just saying let's see where we are in October to come to an ENSO conclusion.  August seems a bit premature.  And, even with a bad ENSO there's no telling how to predict the ridge/trough pattern as you say.  It's chaos I say, chaos! 

Yes, but in the SE we've gotten a few below average months....wasn't June and July a bit below normal? Don't take away my hope.  It's all I got man.  

Yes, but I was only talking in response to the the odds of something happening.  I was not making a prediction.

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4 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

Yes, but we're only in August still.  I guess I'm just saying let's see where we are in October to come to an ENSO conclusion.  August seems a bit premature.  And, even with a bad ENSO there's no telling how to predict the ridge/trough pattern as you say.  It's chaos I say, chaos! 

Yes, but in the SE we've gotten a few below average months....wasn't June and July a bit below normal? Don't take away my hope.  It's all I got man.  

It's not all you gott, a two hour drive will get you to the mountains, I feel they will do well this winter! If patterns repeat, we've had a lot of troughs in the east , so if that continues, should lead to a lot of NW flow events?

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21 hours ago, SnowNiner said:

And who's to say they don't change back in a October or November? We're still in August. It's all a crap shoot in my opinion.  In my mind what are the chances of 3 warm winters in a row? that's the only thing that has me thinking we're in for a better winter.  All the other variables there's just no way to tell.  

 

 

Ummm...no. Nino is not happening

12 hours ago, WidreMann said:

Which models were calling for Nino? CFS, at least, never was. It's been showing the cooldown since even in the spring.

 

Almost every single model except for CFS: JAMSTEC, European Seasonal, all NMME Page models...etc.

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8 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

 

Ummm...no. Nino is not happening

 

Almost every single model except for CFS: JAMSTEC, European Seasonal, all NMME Page models...etc.

Agree here. The ship has already sailed on an El Niño, it's over, fat lady has sung. Zero chance. This is a cold-neutral/La Nada event coming up IMO. I don't agree with the La Niña calls, I don't see this ever becoming an official La Niña, even a very weak one 

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13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree here. The ship has already sailed on an El Niño, it's over, fat lady has sung. Zero chance. This is a cold-neutral/La Nada event coming up IMO. I don't agree with the La Niña calls, I don't see this ever becoming an official La Niña, even a very weak one 

All these indicators havnt really been good for sh!t the last few years! Wake me when there's a winter storm 24 hours out and I'm not in the upper 40s waiting on the cold air to arrive , and the precip isn't 18hours ahead of schedule! If we don't have blocking, we are screwed! I know we've scored without it, but yeah, it's like our March snows!

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Lots of weather going on...but on the winter front, the latest PDF & Spread Corrected CFS is now projecting an official weak La Nina.  

Daily averaged AAM for the period Jun 1 - Aug 27 is -0.37....and for the period Aug 1-27, it is -0.55....and it is forecast to remain negative in the near term (next 2 weeks).  Negative AAM values are one indicator of a La Nina like atmospheric circulation.

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