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July 9-16 Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Potential


Hoosier

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2 minutes ago, Chinook said:

For what it's worth, the DMX radar is picking up a lot of radar anomalies, and some rain showers. It may be hard to tell the difference if you just take a quick look.

Noob question. Anyone know why radar is more sensitive to those anomalies on some days and not others? 

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LOT update from RC

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
910 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.UPDATE...
910 PM CDT

Opted to expand the Flash Flood Watch to include the entire CWA.
Confidence in trends through the overnight is on the lower side,
but with an incredibly moist air mass in place (near or above 2"
PWAT) did not want to downplay the flash flooding potential for
areas farther south if more widespread convection does develop.
Main feature of note in the immediate term is a small cluster of
strong thunderstorms over NW Illinois propagating eastward ahead
of the cold front. In addition, a MCS has formed from northern MO
into far southeast IA and far western IL. This is the feature of
concern for potential flood risk into the southern CWA.

DVN and ILX 00z RAOBS contained substantial MUCAPE (3700 j/kg and
nearly 5000 j/kg respectively). In the presence of moderate deep
shear due to a short-wave riding east from IA and such high
MUCAPEs, cannot rule out a few isolated or widely scattered
instances of near severe to severe wind and hail in line with
latest thoughts from SPC. The NW IL cluster of immediate concern
has shown some intensifying trend on most recent radar scans so
will need to monitor it for strong/severe potential.

The CAMs have been of no use in diagnosing near term trends, so
the general idea in the forecast is of gradually increasing storms
later this evening and overnight over the rest of the area and
then sagging south with the frontal boundary. The cold front
timing is not typically one that yields a significant expansion of
convection overnight more favorable for flash flooding. However,
with areas of northern Illinois primed by the excessive rain last
night into this morning, hourly Flash Flood guidance is quite low,
so despite lower confidence, opted to hold onto the watch. If
convection does not fill in for portions of the watch overnight,
expect that the midnight shift will be able to cancel these areas
early.

For areas far south now included in the watch, the concern is that
the MCS currently expanding into far western IL expands east
across central IL and eventually into Indiana south of the
Kankakee River. While confidence is also on the low side for
these areas, it`s possible that southern areas relatively
speaking have a higher threat for training convection and flash
flooding despite much drier conditions of late.

Castro
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Ominous wording from the NWS in Cleveland in regards to the Blanchard River in Findlay...

OHC063-132206-
/O.CON.KCLE.FL.W.0055.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/FDYO1.3.ER.170713T0853Z.170714T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1006 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
  THE Blanchard River Near Findlay
* Until further notice.
* AT  8:00 AM Thu THE stage WAS 13.7 feet
* Major flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet
* The river will rise to near 17.0 feet by Friday morning then begin falling.
* At 17.5 feet...Major flooding will occur in downtown Findlay.
  Flooding can be expected from Westerfield Drive to County Road 236
  along the Blanchard River. Flooding can also be expected along
  Eagle and Lye Creeks between State Route 15 and the Blanchard
  River. About three quarters of downtown inundated.
* At 17.0 feet...FEMA 0.2 percent flood level. Major flooding in
  Findlay.
* At 16.0 feet...FEMA 1 percent flood level. Widespread evacuations
  needed in the City of Findlay. The highways that are impacted
  include U.S. 68 on the south side.
 

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16 minutes ago, Stebo said:

You've gotten more than most tbh.

Which highlights the bust well.... I will admit that the rain we got yesterday is shown about .20 low... My rain gauge was down for 30 minutes at the peak of the rainfall event.

Installed a new network switch to rectify that problem.

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Just now, Jonger said:

Which highlights the bust well.... I will admit that the rain we got yesterday is shown about .20 low... My rain gauge was down for 30 minutes at the peak of the rainfall event.

Installed a new network switch to rectify that problem.

If it was down for 30 mins, you are short about .30-.35. A report from Howell had a bit over an inch in an hour there.

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Just now, Stebo said:

If it was down for 30 mins, you are short about .30-.35. A report from Howell had a bit over an inch in an hour there.

That's how I found the error.

The Bloomsky facebook page is full of disgruntled customers. This thing is a toy essentially. The temps are pretty accurate, the wind is extremely inaccurate and the rain is accurate (when it's up). I think the rain gauge went down due to my own equipment faults.

I'm really thinking about getting a Davis with an aspirated fan.

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Just now, Jonger said:

That's how I found the error.

The Bloomsky facebook page is full of disgruntled customers. This thing is a toy essentially. The temps are pretty accurate, the wind is extremely inaccurate and the rain is accurate (when it's up). I think the rain gauge went down due to my own equipment faults.

I'm really thinking about getting a Davis with an aspirated fan.

If I owned the house I live in, I would have this. 

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3 hours ago, Jonger said:

I'll have to review the radar from last night, but so far this even has been a bust in Michigan.

596791ba35318_rollingoak.jpg.5752e9a799fd58e237d5960676c7c1aa.jpg

Our area was one of the hardest hit again this morning, lots of 2.5"-3" reports, a friend of mine works for the road commission in St Clair County and said lots of flooding with some roads washed out even. We have had a ton of rain since March in our area. Instead of a snow belt it's been a rain belt. Very narrow strip just south of I69 in Lapeer and St Clair county's.

IMG_2621.PNG

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1 minute ago, slow poke said:

Our area was one of the hardest hit again this morning, lots of 2.5"-3" reports, a friend of mine works for the road commission in St Clair County and said lots of flooding with some roads washed out even. We have had a ton of rain since March in our area. Instead of a snow belt it's been a rain belt. Very narrow strip just south of I69 in Lapeer and St Clair county's.

IMG_2621.PNG

 

IMG_2622.PNG

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