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July 9-16 Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Potential

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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SchaumburgStormer

SchaumburgStormer

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, tuanis said:

7 inches and counting. Yard is a running river. House flooded. Hate these setups.

PDS flash flood warning for you guys. 

  
ILC097-111-121600-
/O.CON.KLOT.FF.W.0007.000000T0000Z-170712T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lake IL-McHenry IL-
748 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THIS IS A FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR Lake and northeastern McHenry
counties in Illinois...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR
LAKE AND NORTHEASTERN MCHENRY COUNTIES...

At 742 AM CDT, thunderstorms producing very heavy rain were moving
across the warned area and will likely cause additional flash
flooding and very dangerous travel. Five to eight inches of rain has
fallen and additional rainfall amounts of one to three inches are
likely in the warned area.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for Lake county and northeastern
McHenry county in Illinois. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!
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HillsdaleMIWeather

HillsdaleMIWeather

Posted
Posted 
This afternoon is looking more and more interesting 
.UPDATE...(This Afternoon)
Issued at 1012 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Consolidation of outflow associated with dual lines of convection 
through se WI/ne IL taking place this morning. Lead extent of 
downstream outflow into wrn lower MI attm yet will be overtaken by 
upstream outflow associated with potent MCV progressing through se 
WI. Net result looks quite favorable for composite boundary to sag 
sewd across lake MI near term and initiate new convection and/or 
excite existing festering convection over sw MI by early aftn. Given 
rapidly destabilization ongoing to the south of these storms and 
rather robust low level warm advection in place...growing 
severe/flood threat short term this aftn over nrn IN/srn MI.

Will make significant changes to prior grids this aftn to account 
for above thinking with updates forthcoming later this morning.
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Harry Perry

Harry Perry

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Big plume of rain and storms starting to diminish , getting some minor clearing here ahead of the little bit of rain.

I feel like today would have been a wicked day with more sunshine - looks like we're going to be hard pressed to manage more than a couple of hours of sunshine - likely won't be enough around here for anything substantial. 

Areas like northern IN/OH look to get rockin' however. Plenty of instability building already with temps into the 80's. 

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HillsdaleMIWeather

HillsdaleMIWeather

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

I feel like today would have been a wicked day with more sunshine - looks like we're going to be hard pressed to manage more than a couple of hours of sunshine - likely won't be enough around here for anything substantial. 

Areas like northern IN/OH look to get rockin' however. Plenty of instability building already with temps into the 80's. 

Looking at meso, good instability is building into our areas even with the cloud cover, so I'd still expect some good convection later.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, homedis said:

We have rivers flowing onto streets and whole roads and parking lots filled with water as well. This has to be one of the worst flooding situations I've seen here.

Yikes and a whole new batch of storms is moving toward the metro right now too.

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HillsdaleMIWeather

HillsdaleMIWeather

Posted
Posted

  ..GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST     MULTIPLE STORM CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING FROM LOWER MI WESTWARD TO THE   IA/IL/WI BORDER REGION OF THE MS VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD   CONTINUE GENERALLY EASTWARD BUT INTO A PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH, SEVERE   POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL WITH SPORADIC COVERAGE.     A POCKET OF AGGRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY OVER THE UPPER MS   VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION. WHILE THE 12Z NAM   DEPICTION OF MOISTURE/BUOYANCY IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE (MLCAPE   REACHING 6000 J/KG) AT PEAK HEATING, STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN THE   NORTHEAST EXTENT OF AN ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER SHOULD YIELD LARGE   MLCAPE OF 2500-4000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD   DEVELOP NEAR A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER WI, THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO   THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OUTGOING   CONVECTION. A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM, PARTICULARLY OVER WI   TOWARDS THE MI/IN BORDER WHERE ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AMID   20-35 KT 850-MB WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FEW   CLUSTERS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS   THE PRIMARY HAZARD.      

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homedis

homedis

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yikes and a whole new batch of storms is moving toward the metro right now too.

Yeah our whole office building was trapped because there was about 2' of water sitting right outside. Multiple cars flooded in and Dundee Rd (major road) has a whole river flowing into it. Not looking good at all

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, homedis said:

Yeah our whole office building was trapped because there was about 2' of water sitting right outside. Multiple cars flooded in and Dundee Rd (major road) has a whole river flowing into it. Not looking good at all

Yeah that's a state highway, you are talking major to catastrophic flooding there.

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homedis

homedis

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Yeah that's a state highway, you are talking major to catastrophic flooding there.

And WPC is saying "AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE LATEST PW VALUES FROM GPS DATA AND LOCAL RAOBS ARE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE, AND MUCAPES FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS PORTRAYED BY THE LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE, EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN PLACES BY 16Z."

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
Posted
Just now, homedis said:

And WPC is saying "AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF TRAINING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE LATEST PW VALUES FROM GPS DATA AND LOCAL RAOBS ARE IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE, AND MUCAPES FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS PORTRAYED BY THE LATEST RAP MODEL GUIDANCE, EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN PLACES BY 16Z."

Yeah you have radar estimates back near Mount Carroll of 2-3" in an hour. If this were to grow upscale any, it would just exacerbate the issues over Chicago.

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King James

King James

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Needless to say it's going to be a big problem if the same area of northern IL gets trained later.

Just had a line quickly swing through here.

JOT area was skirted once again, last night as well.  Are we up for any action later this afternoon?

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Not abundantly clear to me how the rest of the day will play out.  There is clearing to the north/west and we shouldn't have trouble getting storms to redevelop later, but trends suggest that much of northern IL/IN, MI etc may have trouble destabilizing a lot.  Guess we'll have to see.  And will have to watch the leftover boundaries.

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Harry Perry

Harry Perry

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not abundantly clear to me how the rest of the day will play out.  There is clearing to the north/west and we shouldn't have trouble getting storms to redevelop later, but trends suggest that much of northern IL/IN, MI etc may have trouble destabilizing a lot.  Guess we'll have to see.  And will have to watch the leftover boundaries.

Agreed. 15z and 16z HRRR shows cloud cover through 23z and temps staying in the 70's. 

 

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Hoosier

Hoosier

Posted
  • Author
Posted
16 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

Agreed. 15z and 16z HRRR shows cloud cover through 23z and temps staying in the 70's. 

 

I guess the tame range of possible outcomes would feature a mostly sub-severe MCS moving through the aforementioned areas later, which would still carry a flooding threat especially spots that have already been hammered. This is a really moist low level airmass though and you never want to ignore that in the presence of some shear.

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Jim Martin

Jim Martin

Posted
Posted

From the NWS in Cleveland...

One factor that will not change through Thursday is the amount 
of moisture across the region. This will lead to heavy rainfall 
from any of the convection that develops. The potential for a 
flood watch for tonight into Thursday is high. 

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