Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

July 9-16 Severe Weather/Heavy Rain Potential


Hoosier

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 313
  • Created
  • Last Reply

don't know if this is the exact perfect place to ask this but i'll fire anyway.

Tonight's storms > MCS were supposed to start near FAR according to most of the models the last 24 hours. now that we actually have convection, it started ~ 100 miles NNW closer to  GFK. question is, will SPC and others have to move that enhanced risk area (and slight risk down the line ) towards the north and east Twin cities metro instead of the south and west metro, and would that put more of western and central WI into play early tomorrow morning compared with southern MN and northern IA for hail/gusts/flooding?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

go by the upper flow in particular (700/500), you'd say that goes west to east. but the majority of the storms are moving SE parallel to the surface boundary. other fly in this ointment, what about the storms in SD? how long do they keep going? hRRR hints that they die off eventually east of US 71. but what if the storms from near GFK stay going SE and start interacting with the storms coming across SW MN near New Ulm and Sauk Centre? might be a new ball game then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Is it just proximity to the radar or does that storm almost over MVX look more ready to drop a sig TOR than any of the ones that have produced over the last several days?

probably a combination of both. but it definitely looks like it amplified. SRV has it 83 inbound and 75 outbound (BV has 55 inbound/90 outbound). if that isn't producing something decent i don't know what will.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

..01Z OUTLOOK UPDATE     EVEN THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH APPEARS TO HAVE BACKED   OFF EARLIER INDICATIONS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF THE EVOLUTION OF A   SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS   EVENING. THIS APPEARS CONSISTENT WITH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF   MODEL OUTPUT AND OBSERVATIONAL DATA.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A little late to the game, but after spotting for my county last night, caught 4 hours of sleep then to Indy for training all day. Was positioned on the Wabash/Huntington County line as back-to-back tornado warned cells entered the area. Didn't bag one but caught a couple of funnels and some nice wall cloud structure. Here's a quick couple of pics. I might have some better ones later when I have more time to go through them.

07102017Andrews1.jpg

07102017Andrews2.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Thought you would be extremely busy yesterday up in Huntington county...and then training today.  Wow!  Glad you made it home after our deluge here in Indpls area today.

Nope, still down here in a hotel, it was quite the goose drowner. A couple more...

07102017Andrews4.jpg

07102017Andrews6.jpg

07102017Andrews3.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The storms around the Quad Cities Dubuque may not necessarily develop into a MCS, but they will likely continue to bubble and expand eastward throughout the night and tomorrow morning (similar to what happened last night).

Hi-Res models have a pretty good handle on it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...