yoda Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: Here's another answer...have my doubts the HRRR verifies though. It's been really suspect with the 2nd, 3rd, etc. rounds this summer: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=545&yr=2017 LWX AFD says try again Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 928 PM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains off the southeast coast. A weak boundary will remain near the area through Monday before stalling south and east of the area Tuesday. An upper level trough of low pressure will move over the northeastern US early in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Have had a couple of waves of showers/thunderstorms so far this afternoon/early evening...the most prolific of which dropped between 3-5 inches (radar estimated) across northeast Maryland. The forecast area presently in a lull radar-wise, but that likely won`t be the end of the precip potential tonight. Mesoscale analysis suggests 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE still present across much of Maryland and adjacent Virginia. The 00Z LWX RAOB confirms this. Effective shear, fortunately, a bit less than this afternoon, but still around 20-25 kt. A cap evident around 500 mb on the sounding. As a weak surface boundary drops toward the forecast area tonight, subtle height falls likely will erode the inhibition, making it possible for another round of convection...unrelated to the activity currently in the upper Ohio Valley. RAP/HRRR composite suggests that showers/thunderstorms will develop somewhere near the Blue Ridge/Catoctins just after dark and track toward Baltimore and Washington toward midnight. After that, details diverge. But given recent rains (and ongoing flooding) and precipitable waters at or above 2 inches in the metros...will be keeping the Flash Flood Watch in place through the early overnight. Would still not rule out localized severe weather. However, if will take a more vigorous updraft to collapse and produce downburst winds. Some CAMs suggesting thats possible...even after midnight. Otherwise, there will a decreasing trend between midnight and sunrise. Will be utilizing the latest obs and composite meso models to fine tune temperature forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 I'm not sure about SVR overnight, but LWX is correct that the HRRR has been trying to generate another round of storms in a few hours. Even the NAM nest which hasn't been very good today with the details implied forcing arriving after dark, so I will not be surprised if the radar lights up in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 35 minutes ago, high risk said: I'm not sure about SVR overnight, but LWX is correct that the HRRR has been trying to generate another round of storms in a few hours. Even the NAM nest which hasn't been very good today with the details implied forcing arriving after dark, so I will not be surprised if the radar lights up in a couple of hours. Radar west of DC is lighting up. Looks like some nighttime towers are going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Beginning to rain outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 9 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Radar west of DC is lighting up. Looks like some nighttime towers are going up. you ain't kidding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Trying to watch Mexico vs Jamaica and have been interrupted twice in last hour because storms are popping up overhead. I look on radar and nothing then 2 minutes later it is thundering and pouring. Pretty cool to have the Directv lead the way on storms popping up, but annoying that I am missing last ten minutes of match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 even though this weekend has jacked up my outdoor hoops twice, it's still more fun than the typical summer weather we get around here. curious if there's any lightning with the cells heading in. unlike yesterday, so far today it's been just rain here. i haven't heard any thunder at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Is @MN Transplant getting any rain? Radar says yes... just want to make sure Thunder outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 and just saw the radar in PA. active night up there to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Pretty serious shower band just went through my back yard. Hoping that stuff south of me from Reston - DC moves north enough to catch me, I could use a good rainy night to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Just now, supernovasky said: Pretty serious shower band just went through my back yard. Hoping that stuff south of me from Reston - DC moves north enough to catch me, I could use a good rainy night to sleep. just saw a flash of lightning with thunder in the distance. not a very active storm, but maybe it'll keep developing for those further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 another flash of lightning. radar showing promise towards the blue ridge which is kinda lining up with the water vapor imagery. could end up being a fairly active night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 More lightning and thunder along with increasing intensity rain. This has been a fun weekend for my area. I've been spoiled with storms. Radar looks juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: BAB in progress. Wind driven rain!!! Strobe lighting looking your way. Big rain setting up. It's really starting to coming down hard here, too. Man.. It's really rumbling to my west. Edit: Looks like a flood event setting up. 95 corridor deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 5 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: I don't think I need a flood watch. I might have to eat, er, drink, these words. First round just getting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Storm of the year! Absolute deluge. Great lightning and thunder out here. If you look at radarscope, there was some broad rotation that developed to my SE and moved over me. As soon as that happened, this storm went to TOWN here. can still see that broad rotation, and there has been a huge increase in lightning right in that area. I can see it nicely to my southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, high risk said: can still see that broad rotation, and there has been a huge increase in lightning right in that area. I can see it nicely to my southeast. I'm sitting outside with my jaw dropped. Best lightning in a while for me. I'm almost scared Edit: It has that content rumble sound. This is awesome!! Glad I'm off work tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Close CG hit just now. Whoa. Lucky to have power. Lost it yesterday a little bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 21 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Storm really looking good for areas near and south of Bowie. That lightning core made me run for cover. That was fun times lol. Second wave rumbling..in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Big time couplet coming onshore near Grasonville, MD.Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Already getting tree down reports and no power in areas, listening to the FD feed from down there.Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Getting structure collapse, and storefront windows blown out, unknown exactly where, but in Queen Anne's.Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 There's bad damage down there, if this isn't a tornado I'll be surprised.Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 .Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Definite tornado damage, requesting any Gators in the area and 4 brush trucks to Bay City, they can't get normal units into the area.Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Looks like about 2.50" in my ghetto gauge from the deluge tonight. Lots of minor flooding. That was one heck of a fun storm. I can't complain about my nearly 4.50" from this weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Man I must have been tired last night. Heavier rains tend to wake me up. Didn't wake up last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 Looks like a rogue tornado occurred in Kent Island last night. Multiple homes received significant damage and search and rescue ongoing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 The pictures making the rounds with daylight here are pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 24, 2017 Share Posted July 24, 2017 2.15" total for yesterday and overnight. Impressive damage pics coming from Queen Anne's this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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