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July Obs/Disco Thread

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, yoda said:

00z GFS says hi... 4-9 inches for MD

 

This is a NORTH event. MD and PA should get waterboarded thoroughly.

It is clear that parts of north VA, including Dale City, should expect anywhere from a trace, to as much as an INCH of rain from this.

If you live in MD, you better build an Ark. Better stay up all night tonight and on into tomorrow.

Deluges wait for no man.

I'm glad MD will get it, I am SICK of mowing lawns. I got bit up horrifically the past three days by damned skeeters. Despite liberal amounts of Deep Woods OFF.

I'll take my trace. My lawn needs to dry out a little. Hah ha too bad MD --- I do NOT envy you, not one little bit!!!! People WILL drown in low lying areas in MD, and the skies will fill up with bloodthirsty clouds of mosquitoes!!! I hope MD gets 20 inches of rain LMAO!

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The old King ain't what he used to be.FB_IMG_1501118847204.jpg.07fd14ab62b1ba78441f9c3a6de5777a.jpg

TROWAL lol. They usually trot out the T word in New England with major blizzards there in Feb or Morch.

I'm kind of skeptical, this is kind of getting slightly sensationalized.

Its LATE JULY in the Mid Atlantic. This kind of thing COULD happen in December perhaps, but NO F'N WAY in Virginia in LATE JULY.

No. F'N. Way.

Can I have some of what the KLWX mets are smoking?

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Anyone know what the SST's are off the DelMarVa? You see the latest KLWX AFD? Truly heady stuff there! If it pans out, wow a stalled out low near the DelMarVa into Monday??????

This almost sounds like a January blizzard lol.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

  

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-level disturbance will pass through the area this
afternoon into this evening. Low pressure will intensify as it
moves into the area Friday. The low will slowly pass through
the area Friday night into Saturday. The low will stall out
near the Mid-Atlantic coast through Monday. High pressure is
expected to build overhead during the middle portion of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure has moved off the Mid-Atlantic and New England
coast early this morning. An onshore flow has developed...and
some low clouds are expected...especially for locations along
and east of the Blue Ridge and Catoctin Mountains. Patchy fog is
also expected in sheltered valleys and rural areas.

The high will remain offshore throughout this afternoon and a
southerly flow will usher in a return of seasonably warm and
more humid conditions. more humid conditions. An upper-level
disturbance will pass through the area this afternoon into this
evening and a surface trough will also pass through the area
during this time. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected during this time. Shear profiles will strengthen a
bit in response to the shortwave energy moving through and this
may cause a few thunderstorms to become severe.
However...widespread severe weather is not expected since the
forcing will be weak and shear profiles will still be marginal.
Locally damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. Max temps
will be in the mid and upper 80s across most locations.

The shortwave energy and surface trough will move off to the
east tonight while a stronger upper-level low digs through the
Great Lakes. Our area will remain in between these systems...so
any showers will likely remain isolated to scattered. Min temps
will range from the 60s in most areas west of the Blue Ridge
Mountains to the lower and middle 70s near Washington and
Baltimore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Closed off upper-level low will track through the Ohio Valley
Friday and into our area Friday night. This system will interact
with a cold front to our north...causing surface low pressure to
develop along the boundary. The upper-level low and surface low
will strengthen as it moves into our area Friday night. Coastal
low pressure is expected to develop near the Delmarva Peninsula
Friday night and latest guidance causes this system to remain
nearly stationary around this area through Saturday night. This
is because the closed upper-level low cuts off from the
jetstream. This makes sense because of a split flow in the
jetstream and the upper-level ridge that is building over the
Rockies.

As the low approaches the area Friday...showers will become more
widespread along with some thunderstorms. Deep moisture in place
suggests that showers and thunderstorms will be locally heavy.
The widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue through Friday night as the low pressure strengthens
overhead. Strongly considered a Flash Flood Watch with this
cycle...but held off for now. The reasons for that are that
there is still some uncertainty as to exactly where the heaviest
rainfall is going to setup. The heaviest rain is likely to be
just north of the surface low and near the 850mb warm
front...where the most frontogenetical forcing is expected.
Latest guidance seems to paint this area across northern and
central Maryland...northern Virginia...eastern West Virginia and
toward the Washington and Baltimore metropolitan areas.
However...there is some uncertainty with some guidance showing
that band a bit farther south toward central Virginia and other
guidance showing it closer to the Mason-Dixon line. Most likely
rainfall amounts for Friday through Friday night are around 1 to
3 inches...again with the best chances of the highest amounts
being across the areas mentioned. However...locally higher
amounts are possible due to the convective nature of the
precipitation.

The low is expected to stall out near the Delmarva Peninsula
Saturday through Saturday night. A gusty north to northeast flow
is likely along with more rain. Unusually cool conditions are
expected due to the cloud cover and rain. Rain may also be
locally heavy with the upper-level low overhead. This may
produce additional flooding concerns. The 00z guidance is the
first to consistently show this solution so confidence is low.
However...the trend over the past couple days has been slower
and farther south/west with this system for Saturday through
Saturday night. Therefore...the forecast has been adjusted to
account for this.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Guidance has slowed considerably with the departure of upper-level
low late in the weekend as it remains cutoff from the main belt of
westerlies to its north. Thus, unsettled weather may now remain into
Sunday and perhaps even Monday as the upper-level low only gradually
pulls away from the area. Precipitation potential during this time
will be tied to position of the low -- the closer it remains to our
area, the greater the potential. Low would become quasi-vertically
stacked, which would generally limit precipitation intensity.
Though, antecedently we may not be able to handle much extra
rainfall after previous days rainfall.

Low will eventually move east of the area with drying conditions
behind it.

 

 

THIS IS DEFINITELY NOTEPAD-WORTHY. It has been so recorded and stored.

 

 

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Jebman said:

This is a NORTH event. MD and PA should get waterboarded thoroughly.

It is clear that parts of north VA, including Dale City, should expect anywhere from a trace, to as much as an INCH of rain from this.

If you live in MD, you better build an Ark. Better stay up all night tonight and on into tomorrow.

Deluges wait for no man.

I'm glad MD will get it, I am SICK of mowing lawns. I got bit up horrifically the past three days by damned skeeters. Despite liberal amounts of Deep Woods OFF.

I'll take my trace. My lawn needs to dry out a little. Hah ha too bad MD --- I do NOT envy you, not one little bit!!!! People WILL drown in low lying areas in MD, and the skies will fill up with bloodthirsty clouds of mosquitoes!!! I hope MD gets 20 inches of rain LMAO!

 

3 hours ago, Jebman said: 

The heaviest rain is likely to be just north of the surface low and near the 850mb warm front...where the most frontogenetical 
forcing is expected. Latest guidance seems to paint this area across northern and central Maryland...northern Virginia...eastern 
West Virginia and toward the Washington and Baltimore metropolitan areas.

I would expect nothing less.

Leonardo-DiCaprio-Clap.gif

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Very happy to see the guidance holding for the rain Fri -> Sat.  Wonder if LWX pulls a flood watch later this afternoon.

lol you were tossing the EURO (along with WPC) only to see all the models go to the EURO... the King once again reigns supreme

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

Posted
Posted
Just now, yoda said:

lol you were tossing the EURO only to see all the models go to the EURO... the King once again reigns supreme

Let's not king it...we haven't even started raining yet.  How many times have we seen something flake out.  I'm game for a good storm...we're almost there.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

I was on Kent Island yesterday and did a hike at Terrapin Park. Lots of debris all over the trails. A few downed trees were freshly cut and moved off to the side. Clearly this area was not in the direct tornado path, so not sure if this was peripheral winds or separate straight line stuff. Likely something in the 70 mph range. I took a quick trip south down Rt 8 on my way out. Was impressive. I did not venture too far into Bay City subdivision out of respect and all the clean up effort ongoing, but the damage was pretty bad and worse closer to the bay. I could clearly see where the tornado crossed over Rt 8, headed for Rt 50. Some badly damaged roofs, downed trees, and others that had branches stripped off at the tops. Pretty surreal scene overall.

One side note- I saw the aftermath of the Gamber tornado in Carroll county back in the late 80s. That was an F3. The damage there was more extensive and impressive, but this wasn't far off.

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Sparky

Sparky

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I was on Kent Island yesterday and did a hike at Terrapin Park. Lots of debris all over the trails. A few downed trees were freshly cut and moved off to the side. Clearly this area was not in the direct tornado path, so not sure if this was peripheral winds or separate straight line stuff. Likely something in the 70 mph range. I took a quick trip south down Rt 8 on my way out. Was impressive. I did not venture too far into Bay City subdivision out of respect and all the clean up effort ongoing, but the damage was pretty bad and worse closer to the bay. I could clearly see where the tornado crossed over Rt 8, headed for Rt 50. Some badly damaged roofs, downed trees, and others that had branches stripped off at the tops. Pretty surreal scene overall.

One side note- I saw the aftermath of the Gamber tornado in Carroll county back in the late 80s. That was an F3. The damage there was more extensive and impressive, but this wasn't far off.

I got some pictures of that.  It was impressive like you say.  It was July 19, 1996.   TS Bertha ripped through about a week earlier, July 13, and dropped a boatload of rain and high winds.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Sparky said:

I got some pictures of that.  It was impressive like you say.  It was July 19, 1996.   TS Bertha ripped through about a week earlier, July 13, and dropped a boatload of rain and high winds.

Wow I was off on the year then. Thought it was earlier than that. It was in July, and it was a bit unusual as the storm dropped south out of PA, I do remember that.

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Sparky

Sparky

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Wow I was off on the year then. Thought it was earlier than that. It was in July, and it was a bit unusual as the storm dropped south out of PA, I do remember that.

Yes, it droped south, southeast sharply out of PA.  I was on I-795 driving home from work when that cell reached that location.  The funnel was still visible hanging like a pendelum.  It was scary to see out of my driver side window like that plus there was crazy rain falling at the time.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

It is an amazing feeling late September day out.

I was thinking the same thing when I was grilling tonight. I love all seasons but there is something special when we start transitioning out of humid summer. Mid September through the end of Oct is one of if not the best periods of wx in the MA  

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