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July Obs/Disco Thread


George BM

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Just now, BTRWx said:

I was just looking for a good satellite image.  Why on earth did I expect to find localized still images from weatherbug? :lol: #GOESRneverlookback

We're actually flirting with 1,000 CAPE from I-70 south somehow there's enough energy for gullywashers and an isolated wet microburst.

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're actually flirting with 1,000 CAPE from I-70 south somehow there's enough energy for gullywashers and an isolated wet microburst.

Not good with what has already fallen

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13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We're actually flirting with 1,000 CAPE from I-70 south somehow there's enough energy for gullywashers and an isolated wet microburst.

I should know this, but I'm sure others are interested.  What signals indicate microburst chances and how would we best recognize one without being in one?  I'd assume storm relative velocity is one?

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Just now, BTRWx said:

I should know this, but I'm sure others are interested.  What signals indicate microburst chances and how would we best recognize one without being in one?  I'd assume storm relative velocity is one?

My experience has been watching the 0.5 and 1.5 degree Base Velocity.  If there is a bright spot that quickly disappears then it can indicate a mass of precip cooled air rapidly descending to the surface.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

My experience has been watching the 0.5 and 1.5 degree Base Velocity.  If there is a bright spot that quickly disappears then it can indicate a mass of precip cooled air rapidly descending to the surface.

Awesome, thanks!

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
237 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary persists across the Mid-Atlantic through
tonight. Low pressure crosses the area tonight. A cold front
will cross through the region Friday night into Saturday
morning. High pressure builds into the Mid-Atlantic behind the
front this weekend and persists into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Have expanded/lengthened the flash flood watch. Given the
history of the atmosphere over the past 24 hours, the fact that
the regional radar shows a line of heavy showers forming along
the Mason-Dixon line westward to central OH/western KY moving
east, and the WPC day 1 excessive rainfall graphic (they`ve done
very well in the past two days) feel this is the proper track.
Hopefully this won`t come to fruition. Have heard that in
Fairfax Co several roads are closed due to high water. Our
radar operators will be on guard through the evening.

Previous...

High pressure has moved off the ME coast and in response the
boundary has dropped further in the western Atlantic and then
moving northwest across our forecast area. This has provided the
focus for very heavy rainfall this morning - NHK received 1.05"
in 23 minutes this morning. IAD 12Z sounding had a PWAT of
2.14", which is even higher than yesterday morning`s 1.89. As a
result showers which formed were extremely efficient rain
producers.
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4 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like some 6" amounts south of Dale City over the past 24 hours

Well, that appears to corroborate the 5.2 inches in my three rain buckets scattered all over the back yard lol. I got so happy about the rain overnight that I ended up staying up til 8am lmao, then conked out til 330pm. Looks like I picked up another 2 or so between 8am and 3pm lol.

If this is true, I have really picked up five inches since 4pm yesterday, that is an unbelievable amount of rain. Talk about a WIN!!!

Those of you tackling rush hour tonight, stay very safe, slow down and give yourself extra time..

Is the NWS REALLY calling for even MORE rain tonight? Wow wow wow Wow WOW WOW!!!!

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1 minute ago, smokeybandit said:

This one's been a bust IMBY.  Only about .4"out of the 1.2" predicted.

Same here. 0.32" so far. Looks like some incoming/developing heavy showers though with the low passing over the lower Chesapeake. I am sure it will find a way to mostly miss mby.

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3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I'm finally under one of those stationary, growing trains of steady to moderate rain. I can see the gauge creeping up from inside the house and guessing about .50" so far. Could be under these returns for awhile but still a long way off before I cry, "Uncle!"

No F'N way I ever cry UNCLE. While I want everyone to get their share of the rain, I NEVER, EVER cry Uncle when it comes to heavy rain and battleship gray skies!

Bring It ON!!!!!!!!!

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We drove through some real heavy rain on our way down to Raleigh this morning!  Some of the heaviest on I-95 south was right around the Dale City area where Jeb was building his ark amidst torrential downpours and battleship gray skies.  Once we got south of Fredericksburg the skies started to break and we had full sun by Richmond.  Here in Raleigh it was 95 at 5pm.

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3 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

We drove through some real heavy rain on our way down to Raleigh this morning!  Some of the heaviest on I-95 south was right around the Dale City area where Jeb was building his ark amidst torrential downpours and battleship gray skies.  Once we got south of Fredericksburg the skies started to break and we had full sun by Richmond.  Here in Raleigh it was 95 at 5pm.

LMAO!!!!!! Ark is nearly completed, just in time for yet another round of rain lol.

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Tornado confirmed in Charles Town yesterday.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
432 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2017

...Tornado Confirmed Near Charles Town in Jefferson County WV...

Location...Charles Town in Jefferson County WV
Date...July 05 2017
Estimated Time...8:14 PM to 8:15 PM EDT
Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF-0
Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...70 mph
Maximum Path Width...30 Yards
Path Length...0.25 mile
Beginning Lat/Lon...39.297 N / 77.844 W
Ending lat/Lon...39.300 N / 77.847 W
* Fatalities...0
* Injuries...0

* The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
  change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
  Storm Data.

...Summary...
The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington DC has confirmed a weak tornado near Charles Town in Jefferson County WV on July 05 2017.

A small tornado touched down at the entrance to the Jefferson
Crossing Shopping Center on Flowing Springs Road just north of U.S. 340. The tornado damaged the sign at the entrance.

The tornado crossed Flowing Springs Road and damaged the roofing of three barns and the door to a fourth barn located at Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races. One barn lost a section of roof completely, leaving seven stalls exposed. Debris from the roof of one barn was thrown into power lines, snapping a telephone pole.
Fencing was also damaged by debris from the roof. Projectile 
impacts were also noted in nearby barn roofs from two- by-four 
pieces of wood that were lofted by the tornado.

The tornado lifted as it crossed East Fifth Avenue near the
vehicle entrance to the barn area.

The tornado was captured on security camera footage at the
Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races. The footage showed
sections of barn roof being lifted and spun into the air.

 

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