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bluewave

July 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread

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We should tack on a tenth or two of a degree to the July departures today. Then it looks like a slow drop for the rest of July as it won't be as hot as this week was.

EWR...+1.6

NYC...+2.0

LGA...+2.8

JFK...+2.5

BDR...+3.0

ISP...+2.9

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We should tack on a tenth or two of a degree to the July departures today. Then it looks like a slow drop for the rest of July as it won't be as hot as this week was.

EWR...+1.6

NYC...+2.0

LGA...+2.8

JFK...+2.5

BDR...+3.0

ISP...+2.9

7/25 - 7/30 looks near normal and should shave these back .5 - 1+

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Interesting to see how hot it can go today ahead of the clouds.  Days before or of any  frontal boundry  always seem to over perform.  But it looks like clouds will get in the way by 1

 

 

sat - vis - 7-22 - 10AM.gif

binghamton-new-york-region-current-radar

 

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10AM: Roundup

TEB: 85
NYC: 82
EWR: 86
LGA: 82
JFK: 86
ISP: 84
New Brunswick: 86
BLM: 85
TTN: 84
PJL: 86
ACY: 84

 

 

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10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

7/25 - 7/30 looks near normal and should shave these back .5 - 1+

Yeah, we should hold onto a smaller + departure than some of the really hot 2010's Julys as the heat has been less extreme. But it looks like 2014 will still stand as the only - departure July of the 2010's. So 7 above normal Julys since 2010 vs only 1 below normal. Similar to only one below normal snowfall winter since 2010 with 2011-2012.

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On 7/18/2017 at 10:01 AM, SACRUS said:

July's - on our way to a 2015/16ish June dep-wise

EWR

2010:  +4.9
2011: +5.3
2012: +3.5
2013:  +3.5
2014:  -0.3
2015:  +1.6
2016:  +2.6

so far: +1.6

 

LGA:

 

2010: +5.4
2011:  +3.0
2012:  +3.0
2013: +3.8
2014:  -0.4
2015:  +1.8
2016: +3.7

so far:  +2.8

 

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11AM Roundup

TEB: 85
NYC: 84
EWR: 88
LGA:  84
JFK:  88
ISP:  86
New Brunswick: 87
BLM: 88
TTN: 85
PHL: 89
AcY: 86

 

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88.3 here after a low of 79.3.....90 is almost a guarantee at this point, but that low might not hold. Solid 4 day heat wave.

93.2 / 75.1

95.7 / 77.6

96.2 / 77.5

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gotta go south for severe

 

FB_IMG_1500735759255.jpg

Is this in any way a shocker!! I'm up in NE PA. Cloudy and not to hot here. I hope we can at least get some strataform rains in the met area

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Recent runs of the HRRR are keying in on the idea for heavy flooding rains of 1.5 - 3" for parts of northern/central NJ and NYC.  12z NAM concurs with a bulls eye in the I-78 to I-287 corridor and into Staten Is.  Amounts of up to 4 - 5" in some parts of that area.  The event would occur this evening and the first part of tonight.

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7 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Recent runs of the HRRR are keying in on the idea for heavy flooding rains of 1.5 - 3" for parts of northern/central NJ and NYC.  12z NAM concurs with a bulls eye in the I-78 to I-287 corridor and into Staten Is.  Amounts of up to 4 - 5" in some parts of that area.  The event would occur this evening and the first part of tonight.

Yeah this seems more likely than anything severe. At the same time the heaviest rain may be isolated. The RGEM takes the focus south of most of the metro area but hits us hard tomorrow night

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2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this MCV appears to be on a good trajectory for us

PBZ.N0Q.20170722.1732.gif

12z NAM is keying in on this feature to impact us this evening.  12z NAM Radar simulation lines up well with current radar trends.

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37 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this MCV appears to be on a good trajectory for us

 

The Euro tracks the MCV right down I-80 across our area. Has a solid 2"+ event with some gusty winds near the rear inflow jet behind the MCV.

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro tracks the MCV right down I-80 across our area. Has a solid 2"+ event with some gusty winds near the rear inflow jet behind the MCV.

 

ecmwf_slp_precip_nyc_4.png

ecmwf_slp_precip_nyc_5 (1).png

ecmwf_tprecip_nyc_6 (1).png

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32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro tracks the MCV right down I-80 across our area. Has a solid 2"+ event with some gusty winds near the rear inflow jet behind the MCV.

it's practically a small tropical cyclone. look at that pwat

nam_2017072212_015_40.7--74.12.png

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2 hours ago, psv88 said:

90 earlier, 88 now at home 

was boiling hot here at cedar beach before, sea breeze finally kicked in to make it more bearable 

The fact that there are three or four (or more?) Cedar Beaches in Suffolk County boggles my mind, there's a lot of repetition with the street names as well. Kind of dumb imo. I was at the north shore Cedar Beach the other day, the water felt nice. The sea breeze made it extremely muggy, once it retreated south it was nice and dry.

My high today was 90.0 (89.98), the rate the temp was climbing earlier I expected it to go higher, but a 90 is a 90.

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