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July 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread

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24 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days to be +8degs. (84 vs. 76).   If so, we will be +3.4degs. for the month, by the morning of the 24th.

Despite being in a pattern not conducive to lots of heat we are still running a little above norm for the month. If that prediction is correct then soon soildly above normal.  It takes a "cool" pattern just to stay close to normal.

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This continues to look like the first summer since 2008 when the June high temperatures beat July. Interesting how this winter was the first in a while when the coldest departures occurred in December. Most recent winters has warmest departures in December. 

EWR June max....99...July....93 so far

LGA June max....101..July....94 so far

 

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54 minutes ago, dWave said:

Despite being in a pattern not conducive to lots of heat we are still running a little above norm for the month. If that prediction is correct then soon soildly above normal.  It takes a "cool" pattern just to stay close to normal.

Normal is based on 1981-2010 averages, if you add about 1.5 to 2 above that then that would be the true normal for today's climate.

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17 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

Normal is based on 1981-2010 averages, if you add about 1.5 to 2 above that then that would be the true normal for today's climate.

 

And that 1981-2010 climate block is already the warmest we have on record. 

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2 hours ago, Sundog said:

 

And that 1981-2010 climate block is already the warmest we have on record. 

It seems we're warming at close to 1 degree every decade, this does need to stop!

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29 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

It seems we're warming at close to 1 degree every decade, this does need to stop!

Our climate has become more like portions of the Midatlantic during the 2010's. So when we don't see the extreme warmth of recent years, it feels cooler even if the departures are still positive. Seems like any month under +2 to +3 is our new cool pattern.

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Cool map courtesy of Jack Sillin which shows the hot spots in northern Nassau and nw Suffolk. Akin to the urban areas of NJ and much hotter than the south shore.

 

IMG_1827.PNG

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What is the best short term model to forecast cloud cover? I have been using the HRRR but not sure how accurate that is. There is currently a solar storm in progress and the Aurora Borealis will be visible from New York State. I have photographed this many times but it looks like the further north tonight the more cloud cover there will be. I was hoping to head to the Adirondacks but weather conditions look to be better closer to the Catskills. 

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26 minutes ago, Morris said:

KNYC matched EWR today at 87 and exceeded LGA's 86. JFK was only 83.

SSE flow prevented LGA and EWR from getting warmer today.

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6 hours ago, seanick said:

What is the best short term model to forecast cloud cover? I have been using the HRRR but not sure how accurate that is. There is currently a solar storm in progress and the Aurora Borealis will be visible from New York State. I have photographed this many times but it looks like the further north tonight the more cloud cover there will be. I was hoping to head to the Adirondacks but weather conditions look to be better closer to the Catskills. 

Nick have you used the clear sky chart on this page? It has dozens of sites you can check all across the state (and country) specifically geared toward astronomers. Darkness, cloudcover,  humidity etc all factored in. I think it uses CMC data. http://cleardarksky.com/csk/

Other than that, I've used the HRRR like you said simply becuae it updates hourly and cloud over is so finicky. Good luck. 

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31 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

Hot and dry is okay with me. Currently 83 and mostly cloudy 

Your obviously not a gardener. 

looks like yet another summer drought is about to begin on the south shore of the island. Only .17" fell during the entire last rain period. It's definitely a micro climate as spring/summer convention is destroyed by the stabalizing marine air. Although dry summers are completely normal locally it's no less annoying. The native old growth forest of the south shore probably looked nothing like what's currently here as a result. 

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12z Euro is widely scattered interior pop up mode for convection Tue-Fri. Has more organized looking convection Sat-Tue with the next WAA push and then cold front. The strongest heat remains to the south of NYC Metro with 100's showing up for the Midatlantic.

 

KEWR_2017071712_dx_240.thumb.png.c4cce163b7f81e1af814c8cc2fc24575.png

 

 

 

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Looks like typical summer weather of the 2010s, it'll be hot but nothing Earth shattering with chances of storms here and there. 

Does look like a brief cool down towards the end of the month before the cycle begins again. All in all we're right in the middle of MET summer although the loss of daylight is starting to become a bit more noticeable especially in the morning. 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Your obviously not a gardener. 

looks like yet another summer drought is about to begin on the south shore of the island. Only .17" fell during the entire last rain period. It's definitely a micro climate as spring/summer convention is destroyed by the stabalizing marine air. Although dry summers are completely normal locally it's no less annoying. The native old growth forest of the south shore probably looked nothing like what's currently here as a result. 

You can see a clear difference in the amount of precipitation Central Park and JFK average. Central Park averages 49.92", which is actually high for this region. JFK averages 42.77", which is more in line with other stations in the coastal Mid-Atlantic region.

PHL - 41.50"

ACY - 41.79"

BWI - 41.85"

DCA - 39.71"

A 7" difference in yearly rainfall over a distance of 13 miles seems pretty significant. I wouldn't be surprised if some of LI's barrier islands (Rockaways included) had average totals in the upper 30's.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

12z Euro is widely scattered interior pop up mode for convection Tue-Fri. Has more organized looking convection Sat-Tue with the next WAA push and then cold front. The strongest heat remains to the south of NYC Metro with 100's showing up for the Midatlantic.

 

KEWR_2017071712_dx_240.thumb.png.c4cce163b7f81e1af814c8cc2fc24575.png

 

 

 

quite the gradient between here and VA/DC...should keep us in the battleground for showers and T-storms from time to time.

-

edit-Euro is downright chilly for next week...of course it's day 7+ on an op model, but still impressive...

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the weekend is trending warmer on the eps. the big heat will probably be limited by strong convection again

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_fh120_trend.gif

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_fh144_trend.gif

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1 hour ago, Cfa said:

You can see a clear difference in the amount of precipitation Central Park and JFK average. Central Park averages 49.92", which is actually high for this region. JFK averages 42.77", which is more in line with other stations in the coastal Mid-Atlantic region.

PHL - 41.50"

ACY - 41.79"

BWI - 41.85"

DCA - 39.71"

A 7" difference in yearly rainfall over a distance of 13 miles seems pretty significant. I wouldn't be surprised if some of LI's barrier islands (Rockaways included) had average totals in the upper 30's.

Yeah I would think upper 30s as your missing allot of precip during the spring and summer due to dying convection. There are even a few cactus species native to the barrier islands. The 95 summer drought killed a beautiful pure stand of dozens of 100' plus tulip trees next to wantagh high school, probably the biggest trees on the entire south shore and more like what you see on the northern state in western Nassau. 

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20 hours ago, tdp146 said:

Nick have you used the clear sky chart on this page? It has dozens of sites you can check all across the state (and country) specifically geared toward astronomers. Darkness, cloudcover,  humidity etc all factored in. I think it uses CMC data. http://cleardarksky.com/csk/

Other than that, I've used the HRRR like you said simply becuae it updates hourly and cloud over is so finicky. Good luck. 

Thanks for the help. I went to the Catskills instead of the Adirondacks because the Aurora Borealis was dying down pretty quickly. I caught a few shots right before it quit for the night. 

WEB_NONAME_DSC_4246.jpg

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Quote

Flash Flood Warning
NJC027-180030-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0022.170717T2233Z-170718T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
633 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Eastern Morris County in northern New Jersey...

* Until 830 PM EDT

* At 632 PM EDT...Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to
  begin shortly.  Thunderstorms will subside for a time later this
  evening but may redevelop toward 8 PM.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Morristown, Dover, Madison, Florham Park, East Hanover, Lincoln
  Park, Kinnelon, Boonton, Butler, Wharton, Rockaway, Morris Plains,
  Mendham, Mountain Lakes, Riverdale, Victory Gardens, Parsippany,
  Pequannock Township, Lake Telemark and Green Pond.

 

 

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