smoof Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 Very nice storm going a lil north of Oscoda MI rt now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 6, 2017 Share Posted July 6, 2017 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Get ready to watch all the better convection miss to your sw. Or if today's any sign, to the NE... In any event, I'll take my cirrostratus and like it. Surely, August will be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Hoosier, the Weather2020 site is co-founded by the LRC inventor himself, Gary Lezak. Topped out at 76, despite some evening sun, and also overperformed on today's rainfall amount with a total of 2.22 inches. 733 SXUS71 KILN 061911 RRA RERDAY RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 0311 PM EDT THU JUL 06 2017 ...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT DAYTON OH... A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.22 INCHES HAS BEEN SET AT THE COX DAYTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY RECORD OF 1.91 INCHES SET BACK IN 1926. THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT THE END OF THE DAY WITH A FINAL RAINFALL TOTAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCM Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 lol @ the LRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Pretty warm looking 00z ECMWF barring convective influences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Pretty warm looking 00z ECMWF barring convective influences. Yeah it sure does. Has 105 degree heat for southeast Iowa next Wednesday lol. EDIT: Interesting disco from DVN. Either very hot, or very stormy depending on where the ROF largely sets up.. ...The NAM/GFS/GEM all are slightly farther west with the high pressure ridge axis, and the corresponding edge of mid level heat. For that reason, they are exceptionally stormy over our CWA for Sunday PM through next weekend. The GFS keeps us in the battle zone with the main 850mb heat dome only briefly into eastern Iowa Wednesday before another backdoor cool front drops in for late week. The pattern synoptically supports nightly strong MCS, with progressive wind damage threats and training heavy rain threats. As to whether this directly impacts out CWA or not cannot be certain for several days. The large scale differences are problematic, given that they are not apparently due to convective feedback or other easily diagnosed issue. The EC is just a shift in longitude east with the same pattern as the GFS, but that forecast is substantially hotter and drier than the GFS deterministic forecast. In any case, hot and humid weather be a certainty this upcoming week, as both patterns support dewpoints of 70 to 75, and given a boundary in the area, it could support dewpoints in near 80 this time of the year. Combine that with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and we could have a forecast that will either tip towards flooding, or dangerous heat. While that seems unusual, to have a forecast seem a binary, it is actually normal for a ring-of-fire pattern like we are expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 4 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah it sure does. Has 105 degree heat for southeast Iowa next Wednesday lol. EDIT: Interesting disco from DVN. Either very hot, or very stormy depending on where the ROF largely sets up.. ...The NAM/GFS/GEM all are slightly farther west with the high pressure ridge axis, and the corresponding edge of mid level heat. For that reason, they are exceptionally stormy over our CWA for Sunday PM through next weekend. The GFS keeps us in the battle zone with the main 850mb heat dome only briefly into eastern Iowa Wednesday before another backdoor cool front drops in for late week. The pattern synoptically supports nightly strong MCS, with progressive wind damage threats and training heavy rain threats. As to whether this directly impacts out CWA or not cannot be certain for several days. The large scale differences are problematic, given that they are not apparently due to convective feedback or other easily diagnosed issue. The EC is just a shift in longitude east with the same pattern as the GFS, but that forecast is substantially hotter and drier than the GFS deterministic forecast. In any case, hot and humid weather be a certainty this upcoming week, as both patterns support dewpoints of 70 to 75, and given a boundary in the area, it could support dewpoints in near 80 this time of the year. Combine that with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and we could have a forecast that will either tip towards flooding, or dangerous heat. While that seems unusual, to have a forecast seem a binary, it is actually normal for a ring-of-fire pattern like we are expecting. This is anecdotal but with this type of setup it seems like when convection has any excuse to blunt the north/east expansion of higher end heat, it often does so, unless you can establish overwhelming capping. We'll have to see how this one works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCM Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Why does the GFS have such a severe cold bias, serious question... is it just some sort of computing error or having sampling issues? It's been like this for years and the upgrades don't seem to be helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 45 minutes ago, CCM said: Why does the GFS have such a severe cold bias, serious question... is it just some sort of computing error or having sampling issues? It's been like this for years and the upgrades don't seem to be helping. It tends to undermix the boundary layer, resulting in lower 2m temps and higher dewpoints than what verifies. As for why it tends to do that, beats me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: It tends to undermix the boundary layer, resulting in lower 2m temps and higher dewpoints than what verifies. As for why it tends to do that, beats me. Tends to undermix the mid levels with water loading the column as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 7, 2017 Share Posted July 7, 2017 Dews back down below 60. Feels great. Hit 88 for a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Forecast sounding from the GFS for early Monday evening near the QC. 8000J/kg cape. Obviously overdone with the 82 dewpoint, but still impressive to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCM Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 ORD got 89'd again today lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 ORD got 89'd again today lol.Only the 3rd time this year that has happened, which is not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 DVN is getting excited about next week's potential high humidity and storm/flash flooding threat at the edge of the intense heat dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Maybe worth creating a dedicated thread for this upcoming stretch? Large scale pattern is quite favorable for multiple rounds and likely across the subforum, starting with later Sunday-Sunday night through Monday-Monday night. With a persistent huge CAPE reservoir and likelihood of enhanced northwest mid-level flow associated with any stronger shortwaves, this appears to be one of the better extended stretches of potential for a larger area in recent years. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Have a feeling I'm too far west to catch any ring of fire action this week. Just hope the A/C keeps working well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 39 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Maybe worth creating a dedicated thread for this upcoming stretch? Large scale pattern is quite favorable for multiple rounds and likely across the subforum, starting with later Sunday-Sunday night through Monday-Monday night. With a persistent huge CAPE reservoir and likelihood of enhanced northwest mid-level flow associated with any stronger shortwaves, this appears to be one of the better extended stretches of potential for a larger area in recent years. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Here ya go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Hey Jim Martin, Jim Cantore retweeted your sunset picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Certainly not in our area but I think it noteworthy that this Sat, evening the Fairbanks Alaska NWS has been issuing some t storm warnings for golf ball size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 28 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Certainly not in our area but I think it noteworthy that this Sat, evening the Fairbanks Alaska NWS has been issuing some t storm warnings for golf ball size hail. Interesting. Alaska isn't even on the SPC storm report map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Certainly not in our area but I think it noteworthy that this Sat, evening the Fairbanks Alaska NWS has been issuing some t storm warnings for golf ball size hail.Not everyday you see this...That far north, westward motion, and cloud tops near 50kft for a time. Legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Images from those storms near Delta Junction, AK I mean, that's normal right? Seriously, if I said those were from Wyoming no one would been shocked. Also they issued 6 total warnings with some verification a few gusts at/over 58mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 It's been a very comfortable July so far. Got exactly 1 inch of much needed rain in my backyard Saturday (had my mom go measure) but I was in Traverse City for a 3 day weekend which was dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 This is a big IF but if cloud debris isn't an issue around here on Wednesday, then thermal fields (850/925 mb temps) would support mid to perhaps upper 90s with nearly full sun. Pretty high dews as well. I would be more conservative for now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 HRRRx has 100 degrees for the QC tomorrow, with lower 100s in southeast IA. Seems a bit overdone, but could be quite hot nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 I was expecting it to be more humid today. It was this morning, when I woke up to a mid 60s dewpoint, but this afternoon we've fallen back down to about 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 111 at Winner South Dakota right now. MLI hit 90 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 111 at Winner South Dakota right now. MLI hit 90 earlier. Winner winner chicken dinner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Just now, Hoosier said: Winner winner chicken dinner. Hahaha, I almost posted the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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