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June 19th Thunderstorm Discussions & Observations


bluewave

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I think tomorrow has the best chance for severe weather even in NYC in a few years. This line is going to crush us with lightning heavy rain and a decent wind storm. Tomorrow in my opinion during the day is humid but mostly dry and sunny up until 3-4 pm once the clouds roll in rain comes in a fury around 5:30PM and doesn't end until about 10:30PM. High of 87 in Central Park with high humidity. Enjoy but be very careful tomorrow.

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5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

it always seems like the well long in advance advertised threats seem to not live up to the billing...we shall see

I would go in with low expectations. This isn't Oklahama and more times than not something goes wrong, even in places that get severe weather regularly. Also severe weather is almost always localized.

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I'm surprised that this isn't getting more attention on the forum.  CAMs continue to show subtle backing of low-level wind right as the convection arrives.  Timing is good too - late afternoon - so in spite of ****ty midlevel lapse rates we have decent CAPE to work with.  There's not nearly enough shear upstairs for organized supercells (and the flow is parallel to the front, so mode should be as a broken line) but the parameters the models are showing have produced weak tornados in our area in the past - generally as embedded low-level spin ups.    The other ingredients we need are all there - very low LCLs, surface-based convection, winds more SSW than S/SE so the sea breeze inversion is generally limited to LI and the immediate coast. 

Yes, the flooding will be higher impact, but the tornado threat is cooler :)

nam4km_2017061906_015_40.71--73.98.png

 

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41 minutes ago, friedmators said:

Any concerns about the cap breaking too early and popup storms ruining the destabilization?  Was hoping for some more CIN this early.

There is no meaningful cap today.  Hence the crappy lapse rates.   If an EML had been advected over us today, we'd be having a heck of a severe outbreak (but we'd lose the flood risk, since EMLs generally mean less mid-level moisture given their source region).

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