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June 11-17th Severe Weather


snowlover2

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   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Southern and eastern Iowa
     Northern and central Illinois
     Northeast Missouri
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 540
     PM until 100 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
       inches in diameter possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible
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2 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Good to have you checking in regarding your old stomping ground OceanStWx.  Keep us abreast of anything you notice that is concerning. I am hoping as was mentioned that lapse rates will work to keep things somewhat modified this evening.

The best looking environment does sort of parallel I-74. It's a little more murky NE of there.

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a couple of things..MLI radar seems to be running a little hot compared to ILX and LOT...someone was mentioning the difference in rainfall rates earlier...so which is correct?

also why doesn't LOT reset their storm total precipitation....it's been tallying since last tuesday and is hard to tell what fell recently 

 

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.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
 907 PM CDT

Severe threat appears to be diminishing across northern Illinois
and focusing into southern CWA counties with a mainly wind threat
based off of latest radar trends. Will be gradually cancelling
counties from Severe Thunderstorm Watch where severe risk has
ended. Had recently issued a SVR for southern Livingston and far 
southwest Ford and areas just east of this general corridor appear
to have locally highest severe threat now. In addition, northern 
portion of linear segment if it lays out more west-east could be a
focus for flash flooding potential with 2" precipitable water 
values per SPC mesoanalysis. Even with forward propagation in 
strongest wind corridor, very efficient rainfall rates have been 
noted, including 1" in 15 minutes in Woodford County. 

Castro
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