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June 11-17th Severe Weather


snowlover2

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ILX will be having a conference call at 1PM for the NW half of their CWA roughly along and west of I-55 (including SPI and BMI):

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>051-180330-
Cass-De Witt-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-
Morgan-Peoria-Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Stark-Tazewell-Woodford-
1125 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms this evening.
Current indications suggest the primary time frame for severe
weather will be roughly from 6 pm through 10 pm. Damaging winds,
large hail, isolated tornadoes, along with heavy rainfall, will be
possible with the storms before they shift rapidly to the
southeast later this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

The next chance for thunderstorms will be late Wednesday night
into Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed late this afternoon through this
evening. The primary time frame will be from 6 pm until 10 pm. A
conference call for Emergency Managers will be conducted at 1 pm
CDT this afternoon.
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Clearing line almost here with lots of boiling cumulus behind it. I'd imagine scattered storms will start popping here and there for the remainder of the day. 

 

15z NAM shows good covereage of strong convection after about 00z. After about 04z a lot of the dynamics are out of the window - still convection should be ongoing but likely below severe limits in Michigan anyway. 

 

Further south certainly stands the best chance of severe this afternoon and tonight based on just about any model you look at it. Most of Illinois/West Central Indiana stand the best chance at some good boomers. 

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Tornado warnings for some hook echoes and rotation south of London and near Saint Mary's Ontario. TWN is covering it and a wall cloud was spotted for the one south of London. I'm sunny currently with clouds hanging nearby - storms to my SE. TWN was saying we will get storms today, but the dangerous ones with tornado potential "will be tomorrow".

EDIT: Hook already lined out and the complex looks less like a supercell or cell. Rotation also may not be present if TWN's loop and timestamp are accurate. It was present for just one scan. Here is the warning:

1:51 PM EDT Saturday 17 June 2017
Tornado warning in effect for: 
London - Parkhill - Eastern Middlesex County

At 1:51 p.m. EDT, Environment Canada meteorologists are tracking a severe thunderstorm that is possibly producing a tornado. Damaging winds, large hail and locally intense rainfall are also possible.

Weather radar indicates rotation in a thunderstorm just to the southwest of London. The thunderstorm is moving to the east at 50 km/h.


 

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3 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

Tornado warnings for some hook echoes and rotation south of London and near Saint Mary's Ontario. TWN is covering it and a wall cloud was spotted for the one south of London. I'm sunny currently with clouds hanging nearby - storms to my SE. TWN was saying we will get storms today, but the dangerous ones with tornado potential "will be tomorrow".
 

The severe storm just passed thru SW London about 20 minutes ago.  We were out in the car at a busy intersection in the worst of it.  Not a good feeling to have the car rocking by the winds, hearing the hail ping off various parts of the car, and not being able to see 50 feet in the torrential rain.   It's calmed down now, but we have the kitchen ceiling leak to deal with when the rain basically blew the water under the shingles at the side of our house.  

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13 minutes ago, London snowsquall said:

The severe storm just passed thru SW London about 20 minutes ago.  We were out in the car at a busy intersection in the worst of it.  Not a good feeling to have the car rocking by the winds, hearing the hail ping off various parts of the car, and not being able to see 50 feet in the torrential rain.   It's calmed down now, but we have the kitchen ceiling leak to deal with when the rain basically blew the water under the shingles at the side of our house. 

Thanks for the update. Does the leak occur during any other storm or is this the first time because of the high winds? I thought any shingles was suppose to prevent drops from being shoved inside like that.

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26 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

Thanks for the update. Does the leak occur during any other storm or is this the first time because of the high winds? I thought any shingles was suppose to prevent drops from being shoved inside like that.

This has happened under the same circumstances once before during a tornado warned storm a couple years ago.   We have a 2 story house but the attached garage is one story and I believe if the winds are really strong and are coming from the NW like they appeared to be in this storm, then the rain is being driven along the shingles sideways and where the shingles meet the siding on the house,  it is being driven underneath the siding trim into the attic or the rafters and then finds its way into the kitchen.   I thought it was a one off last time, but alas here we are again.  Not sure what to do about it, but may have someone out to the house that is more knowledgeable to offer an opinion on a solution.

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New D1 outlook includes more of N IL and Chicagoland in the Enhanced

"Two changes has been made to the outlook for this issuance. The first change includes adding parts of northern Illinois (including the Chicago vicinity) and northwestern Indiana into the enhanced risk area with a 30 percent probability for wind damage. A 30 percent probability for large hail has also been added into parts of northern Illinois. A corridor of moderate to strong instability is analyzed by the RAP across northern Illinois with a zone of enhanced low-level convergence evident on visible satellite imagery. Convection that initiates along this zone will have a severe threat with a chance for more widespread severe possible...see MCD 1071."

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1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Looks pretty clear across much of IA and IL...don't think it should be too difficult to destabilize again.

*HRRR is not all that impressive though.

HRRR has been performing bad lately so I wouldn't worry. Run to run variability has been all over. The wpc highlighted a good portion of northern IL for possible flash flooding and training storms later

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Lapse rates could be a bit better (and antecedent convection is a concern), but tomorrow for the Ontario folks looks pretty legit for the central/eastern parts of the province into the St. Lawrence Valley and perhaps parts of northern New York. Very strong wind fields in place as the shortwave trough swings negatively tilted and a 70-90 kt 500 mb jet streak rounds its base. Hopefully people out in Cottage Country are aware.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
501 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
The focus will then shift to the late afternoon/evening timeframe.
The current environment features 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE values and
effective bulk shear values of 35-50 kts. However, large scale
forcing is absent for now and that is why the storms are still
subsevere. This will change as a shortwave trough located in
central Iowa propagates east this evening. DCVA associated with
this trough will promote large scale vertical motion over the CWA.
Strong thunderstorms have already started to develop in eastern
Iowa and this can be expected in our area later this afternoon. Given
the environment discussed, the thunderstorm development will be
better organized and the threat for straight line damaging winds
and large hail will exist. CAM`s guidance shows organized
thunderstorm development in western parts of the CWA by 0100 UTC
and moving into the Chicago city limits by 0200-0300 UTC. Once
this wave moves through, some of the model guidance suggests
another wave of thunderstorms in the early morning hours. However,
confidence is not high that the atmosphere will be able to
recover during the nocturnal hours, so this will have to be
watched closely.
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