Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

June 11-17th Severe Weather


snowlover2

Recommended Posts

Enhanced area has been issued for tomorrow for parts of MN/WI.

Quote

Day 2 Convective Outlook 
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1223 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2017

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
   AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH
   DAKOTA EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH
   DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A corridor of damaging winds and hail is expected on Sunday mainly
   across central and southern Minnesota eastward across Wisconsin. A
   couple tornadoes are possible as well.

   ...Synopsis...
   Strong w/swly flow aloft will be maintained across the northern
   Plains, upper MS valley and Great Lakes region around the periphery
   of the southeastern high and with an active storm track across
   Canada. At the surface, a warm front will stretch roughly from
   central MN into WI Sunday morning, lifting northward during the day.
   A very moist and unstable air mass will already be in place near
   this front, supporting severe storms without the aid of much
   heating. Increasing southwesterly 850 mb flow will also enhance lift
   and moisture flux into the area, possibly supporting multiple
   eastward-moving storm systems producing damaging winds and hail.

   ...Eastern SD...central and southern MN...much of WI...
   Scattered storms, possibly a severe MCS, will be ongoing across
   eastern SD early Sunday morning near the warm front. This system is
   expected to gain intensity throughout the day as it travels east
   into MN, where a very moist and unstable air mass will reside.
   Models vary with latitudinal position of the warm front, but it
   should generally stretch from central MN across northern WI at 18Z.
   Various model solutions are in very good agreement depicting the
   scenario of a long-lived convective cluster traveling eastward along
   the warm front during the day, with additional activity possible in
   the 00-06 time frame northwest of the earlier activity. However,
   uncertainty exists with the exact location of the warm frontal
   corridor, thus, the Enhanced Risk area encompasses most model
   solutions. Aside from the positioning of the warm front, several
   rounds of storms producing outflow will also have an impact on
   additional afternoon/evening storms. Damaging winds should be the
   primary severe hazard, with steep lapse rates aloft also supporting
   hail.

   A tornado threat is possible but highly dependent on storm mode
   being cellular and away from the surging outflows. If the air mass
   can recover behind the early activity, a couple tornadoes are
   certainly possible along the warm front. Further, a brief tornado
   risk cannot be ruled out with any cells that form along the lifting
   warm front during the day, just ahead of the approaching MCS.

   ..Jewell.. 06/10/2017

 

day2otlk_1730.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 216
  • Created
  • Last Reply
35 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Models been showing a nice squall line/MCS forming tonight and tracking all the way to the UP.

Yeah the models have been very persistent in insisting the southern 1/3 of MN is gonna get shellacked tomorrow.  I'd be feeling pretty good about things if I lived in the MSP/Mankato areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah the models have been very persistent in insisting the southern 1/3 of MN is gonna get shellacked tomorrow.  I'd be feeling pretty good about things if I lived in the MSP/Mankato areas.

Yep, looks to be a pretty strong MCS as modeled currently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HRRR is looking very ominous for MSP and surrounding areas around mid-morning.  Well-developed WAA wing in advance of the incoming linear MCS.  Surface cape of up to 3000J/kg and good shear profiles in place ahead of it.  Models showing some strong mid-level winds immediately behind the MCS, so a rear-inflow jet or two looks quite possible as the CS propagates quickly eastward.  With the shear in place some strong meso-vortices may enhance wind damage in portions of the line, particularly where the surface instability gradient ends up.  Think we may see several 65kt+ gust reports pop up on the ol' SPC reports page tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some decent wake winds behind the MCS as well...

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
756 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

MNZ047>049-054>057-064-065-111445-
Chippewa-Yellow Medicine-Kandiyohi-Stearns-Renville-Stevens-Pope-Lac
Qui Parle-Swift-
756 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2017

...STRONG WINDS TO AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 10 AM...

At 750 AM CDT, strong winds developed on the backside of a large
area of thunderstorms now moving through central Minnesota. Winds
were gusting 45 to 50 mph in the Benson and Appleton areas around
730 am. These strong winds will likely continue for 2 to 3 hours
...or through 10 or 11 am.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Willmar, Montevideo, Morris, Benson, Granite Falls, Glenwood,
Madison, Dawson, Appleton, Clara City, Starbuck and Renville.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these winds subside.

LAT...LON 4527 9644 4525 9629 4522 9627 4518 9610
      4541 9612 4542 9625 4569 9626 4576 9623
      4576 9511 4542 9511 4489 9498 4466 9528
      4470 9535 4466 9536 4478 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 1250Z 240DEG 49KT 4525 9593

$$

DWE
Link to comment
Share on other sites

mcd0986.gif

 Mesoscale Discussion 0986
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0930 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017

   Areas affected...East central and southern Minnesota into Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312...

   Valid 111430Z - 111530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 312
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat of damaging winds and hail will persist across
   eastern Minnesota and across much of Wisconsin. An additional watch
   will be required for the remainder of the Enhanced Risk area.

   DISCUSSION...A long-lived severe bow echo continues eastward across
   MN with apex now crossing the MS river. The MCS trails southwestward
   into south-central MN as well, where eastward motion is slower.

   A warm front currently extends from the MSP area eastward across
   central WI. This boundary will continue to lift northward throughout
   the day, with an increasingly moist and unstable air mass spreading
   northward ahead of the MCS. Meanwhile, shear profiles in the low
   levels will also increase due to 30-40 kt 850 mb flow.

   A damaging wind risk will continue with the bow apex, even though it
   may remain slightly north of the surface warm front, traveling
   east-northeastward across northern WI. The slower southern portion
   of the line may eventually re-organize into a more severe segment as
   instability and inflow both increase later today. Damaging winds and
   hail should continue to the be main risks with the MCS. If isolated
   cells can develop along the warm front, a tornado risk would exist.
   More likely, the intersection of the MCS/outflow and warm front will
   pose the greatest tornado threat in QLCS fashion.

   ..Jewell.. 06/11/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   45769288 46448890 46198816 45718764 45248753 44738763
               44388791 44008902 43629062 43689235 43859302 44179353
               44869361 45329344 45769288 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is something interesting on this severe squall line at 1238z (7:38AM central time) - a bookend vortex or line-end vortex about 60 mi west of Minneapolis. Sometimes these can form as a cyclonic/anticyclonic pair at the right and left sides of a squall line/bow echo. It's not common for an anticyclonic vortex to form. This one, of course, is cyclonic.

u20IyWJ.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Jim Martin said:

Tonight's 3km NAM is showing potential for a thunderstorm complex late tomorrow afternoon and evening across southern Michigan, and into NW Ohio & NE Indiana.

593f4ab26798a.png

I don't buy its location, there is nothing to shunt the boundary that far south in the state tonight. I mean it will eventually get to this point, but not that early in the evening.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pop up t storms already appearing this Tuesday morning in the 72 dew point air in central and se IN with an outflow boundary from the Wisconsin storms moving southward clearly seen on the LOT radar at this time through the Chi-town area.  Hvy rain/flash flood threat at least for IN/OH.  Svr warning now for Cincinnati area this noon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...