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June 11-17 Severe Threats


Quincy

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Here is a GOES 16 image of the current situation. The overshooting top on the (most likely) tornadic storm is at about -73C. Black on the color bar is 198K, or -75C. So, how does an overshooting top get this cold if the tropopause temp is -60C? Super extra radiational cooling? Does it continue to push to colder temps with adiabatic cooling of the updraft?

SYBnWAK.jpg

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA  
737 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017  
   
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON  
   
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.  
  
            ..REMARKS..  
  
0715 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW VALLEY             41.32N 96.36W   
06/16/2017  M88.00 MPH       DOUGLAS            NE   OFFICIAL NWS OBS  
  
            AT THE NWS OFFICE.  

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1 hour ago, Indystorm said:

Hope you made it through ok at council bluffs   Strong couplet on velocity near Glenwood as you mentioned.

Alls safe up here. Lots of street flooding and branches down but trees overall held up in my neighborhood. Easily 60-70mph+ gusts a few times, steady 40-50 but I was on the edge of the secondary stronger winds that went north of town. Spectacular view after it, double rainbow. Gorgeous mammatus (I can link album once I sort through them tomorrow, adrenaline wearing off). Unfortunately tornado damage pictures coming in. 

https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=729389903936169&substory_index=0&id=161795364028962

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One of the more remarkable wind events I seen evolve in a long time. The nonstop intensity of this and widespread significant wind reports are just mind boggling. Tomorrow holds the same threshold given similar thermodynamics and stronger shear. This thing has a textbook appearance on radar

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Just had a very difficult time getting from Lincoln, NE to Bellevue. Multiple tractor trailers blown over on I-80 and it was difficult to go more than a mile or two on any non-interstate roadways without encountering downed trees/power lines. So many detours. Widespread wind damage is apparent. We may have a derecho by the time all is said and done. The KC metro area is about to get rocked by the system too. 

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4 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Just had a very difficult time getting from Lincoln, NE to Bellevue. Multiple tractor trailers blown over on I-80 and it was difficult to go more than a mile or two on any non-interstate roadways without encountering downed trees/power lines. So many detours. Widespread wind damage is apparent. We may have a derecho by the time all is said and done. The KC metro area is about to get rocked by the system too. 

I def think this is on the way to derecho criteria. The strength and duration of the high end wind reports is the most I seen in a long time. Did you intercept the bow Quincy? 

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5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I def think this is on the way to derecho criteria. The strength and duration of the high end wind reports is the most I seen in a long time. Did you intercept the bow Quincy? 

No, I chased the tail end supercells out by York and stayed back for some mammatus and lightning photography. Time to rest up and get ready for a potentially similar setup on Saturday, albeit a bit farther southeast. 

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Yikes

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  

1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 17 2017    

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A    

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  

WYANDOTTE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...  

NORTHERN MIAMI COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...  

SOUTHWESTERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...  

JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...  

CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  

SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...  

WEST CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...    

* UNTIL 115 AM CDT    

* AT 1227 AM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KANSAS CITY   KANSAS, OR NEAR LAKE QUIVIRA, MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 60 MPH.    

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.    

HAZARD...85 MPH WIND GUSTS.    

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.    

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED. EXPECT   CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES.   EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.    

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...   KANSAS CITY, OVERLAND PARK, OLATHE, INDEPENDENCE, LEE'S SUMMIT,   SHAWNEE, LENEXA, LEAWOOD, RAYTOWN, GRANDVIEW, BELTON, PRAIRIE   VILLAGE, RAYMORE, GARDNER, MERRIAM, HARRISONVILLE, MISSION,   PLEASANT HILL, BONNER SPRINGS AND DE SOTO.    

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8 hours ago, Quincy said:

Just had a very difficult time getting from Lincoln, NE to Bellevue. Multiple tractor trailers blown over on I-80 and it was difficult to go more than a mile or two on any non-interstate roadways without encountering downed trees/power lines. So many detours. Widespread wind damage is apparent. We may have a derecho by the time all is said and done. The KC metro area is about to get rocked by the system too. 

 

DCf5wCIUwAAAxy4.jpg

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Today looks to be the last in a string of elevated severe weather potential days across the central states. It's only fitting that convective evolution looks to be complex once again. 

The overnight significant MCS/possible derecho has had a large impact on the environment across much of Missouri. Rich, boundary layer moisture remains across eastern Kansas, while a reduction in theta-e is noted over Missouri with cooler surface dew-points, smaller CAPE profiles and fragmented wind fields as well.
 
While airmass recovery is still expected, even in the wake of the MCS, the convective forecast remains a bit complicated. A sizable area of extreme instability is likely to reside by early afternoon across eastern Kansas (>4000 J/kg CAPEs), however, a layer of warmer temperatures around 850-800mb is noted in forecast soundings. This may result in capping concerns here, leading to isolated/sporadic storm development. Furthermore, somewhat weaker winds aloft (30-40 knots at 500mb) combined with some capping leave big question marks with the longevity and intensity of any updrafts between roughly US-77 and the MO border in Kansas. One other positive note is that low-level winds are expected to remain southerly in the region, promoting favorably turning winds with height.
 
To the east, convective initiation seems likely by early to mid afternoon across northern Missouri/southeastern Iowa. The issue here is that winds near the surface should be more veered (southwesterly) and the deep layer wind profiles favor mixed storm modes, quickly transitioning to MCS potential into eastern Missouri/Illinois. 
 
The 3km NAM is probably too bullish in convective coverage, as it shows an extensive area of convection from western Kansas to northern Illinois by early evening. The HRRR eventually shows similar evolution, but not until later in the evening (convection is somewhat more isolated in that corridor in the 23-02z time frame). The 12z NSSL is somewhere between, but most guidance favors the MCS (possibly significant) scenario over the Missouri/Illinois vicinity. 
 
As far as chasing goes, I'm favoring eastern Kansas for more discrete storm modes, greater instability and more favorable low level moisture/backed wind fields. Deep layer shear vectors form roughly 45 degree angles with a dropping cold front, so that combined with modest capping lead me to believe we won't see rapid MCS/linear consolidation in Kansas late this afternoon. 
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Looks like the remnants of that complex here last night finally died off at the TX/OK border. Haven't checked wind reports south of here but I wonder if it'll be classified a derecho.

Edit: Had some time and took the preliminary wind reports and filtered them in an excel sheet to just recorded wind speeds/gusts. Definitely was in severe criteria until Panola, OK (about 70 miles from the TX border in a straight line). I think this will meet derecho criteria. Measuring from Fremont, NE to Panola is around 450 miles. If I go further back to Norfolk it's over 500 miles.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11w4CLRF6X7Raeqb5fPysLHCcIMYimyt1hyyeeUKIPTc/pubhtml 

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Should convection both initiate in eastern Kansas AND remain at least semi-discrete over the next 1-3 hours, there would be the potential for very large hail. While low level shear is not particularly impressive, substantial low level vorticity and enhanced 0-3km CAPE could locally elevate a tornado threat as well. Overall extreme instability and >40 knots of deep layer shear will certainly favor explosive, rotating updrafts, once remaining CINH is overcome.

IMG_3018.thumb.PNG.06ac063bc87a063aa98f1fe1b9db1502.PNG

 

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