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June 11-17 Severe Threats


Quincy

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I wonder if truckers should just avoid the BFF area for the next 1-2 hours. One cell moving into town, then a twin-twister cell moving in behind that by 30-60 mins. hope it doesn't get too ugly around there. And I hope the radio stations there have someone in studio going live with their wx provider, not someone doing things from remote. I have a feeling they may be improvising things with their towers for a little bit.

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

For what it's worth, the dryline essentially hit Greeley and Fort Morgan from the south, with 94/36 at Greeley.

Same for the Denver Metro. DEN was 85/59 at 1 PM and 92/33 at 2 PM. The cumulus towers were just starting to build over Aurora as the dryline swept through. A couple hours different timing and we would have had some big time severe in the Metro area. Then again, I'm not anxious to have a PDS tornado watch over my house.

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screen capture with my 3:14PM wall cloud, Nunn CO. I cannot believe I actually did this. This is my best ever storm pic. And I can't stress this enough-- I didn't get my car busted up with that large hail that happened in this same area (later, after I drove away)

y0oDk4D.jpg

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another tornado warning with a statement of confirmed tornado, just outside Casper (an actual populated place)

--

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northeastern Natrona County in central Wyoming...

* Until 715 PM MDT

* At 640 PM MDT, a confirmed tornado was located just west of Bar
  Nunn, which is 8 miles north of Casper, moving north at 60 mph.

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going back to the mess now near Scottsbluff, with this merger going on with the supercells and 3 mesovorticies, what's going to be the result of all of that merging once it gets done in the next 30 mins? you think this just becomes one huge MCC-like mess? or do we look at this mess eventually destroying itself in 1-2 hours?

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
710 PM MDT MON JUN 12 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN SCOTTS BLUFF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...  
  WEST CENTRAL MORRILL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...  
  NORTHEASTERN BANNER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA...  
  
* UNTIL 745 PM MDT  
  
* AT 709 PM MDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR CHIMNEY ROCK STATE PARK, OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF  
  SCOTTSBLUFF, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.  
  
  THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. IF IN MCGREW AND   
  BAYARD...TAKE COVER NOW!   

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A very eventful and challenging day of storm chasing. I held back in the SW panhandle of Nebraska for the longest time, before I opted for the southern target. The pair of cells east of Fort Collins were relatively high based for a while, but that allowed for one to watch a mammatus display, while waiting for the storms to gain better low level rotation.  

IMG_2631.thumb.JPG.3f7c1fac553c828c8d7bc1d0ce24cab0.JPG

I watched most of the duration of the Colorado tornado near Grover/Hereford. It reminded me a lot of Alpena (day after today's 6/17/14 analog) with structure, length in progress and the roping out stage. 

As I got relatively close to the rope tornado, power lines and debris were in the road and there was a ruptured gas line, so I got out of there quick. The downside was that the road network back to I-80 was mostly dirt, so it took a while to catch up to the cells in the southwestern Nebraska panhandle. Plus cell coverage was terrible, probably in part due to storm damage and stress on the grid.

Once there, I arrived in time for the cluster of supercells that featured multiple, brief tornadoes. The lead cell had the best structure and the backend cell had what appeared to be the most photogenic tornado of the bunch. At least in my perspective.

I kept going north, but radar data was poor to non-existent and I didn't want to mess with a rain-wrapped, embedded, tornadic supercell, so I called the chase off before dark. 

At least three or four tornadoes and possibly more, but limited visibility did not make for conclusive observations with the other brief instances. I may have more video later, and should have higher quality photographs as well. 

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I drove in between these two supercells in Weld County and core punched the south one. That explains how I was hitting 0.5" to 0.75" hail when I thought I was in the safe zone-- I was actually in the FFD of the other supercell. Thankfully, it was such a new cell, wasn't ready to spit out large enough hail and dent my car. Maybe I'll post a couple more pictures later.

GHKWwSR.png

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A photo of a tornado near Bushnell, NE at 6:17 p.m. This was with a telephoto lens and corresponds to the tweet a couple of replies up. I quickly scanned my footage and there's nothing too remarkable. It will be neat to do a time-lapse or something with the hours of raw, panoramic footage I captured from a camera on my roof, particularly to watch the life cycle of the Colorado tornado, but I need rest and another chase day will quickly be upon us.

bushnell.thumb.jpg.165a4b6c73a5570fb2db419dab951582.jpg

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Ended up leaving Norman at 4:30 AM Tuesday and arrived just in time for the tornadofest in far eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle. In North Platte now and planning to head east to Grand Island by the mid-afternoon. Liking how the HRRR/HRRRx both show a more discrete mode versus the 3KM NAM. We'll see, but not expecting anything like yesterday. Will be great to edit pictures and videos from yesterday this weekend. Meanwhile, I'm still wondering which storm actually produced this tornado. Storm in the background produced a separate tornado a few minutes later. 

 

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Sounds like SPC is beginning to downplay the 10% tornado risk area in its 1630z disco for today's severe weather threat

Quote

   Have maintained a small 10% tornado risk area over parts of
   MN/SD/ND.  Rapid recovery behind the morning MCS should result in a
   corridor of favorable environment later today.  Forecast soundings
   in this region show backed low-level winds and strong CAPE. 
   However, confidence in discrete storm initiation along the warm
   front has decreased from previous outlooks, and will be re-addressed
   at 20z.
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Some raw footage from my roofcam of yesterday's Weld County, Colorado tornado:

I also added tomorrow and Thursday to this thread, as we might as well keep the discussion together. It may need to be extended another day or two beyond that, but we'll see how the pattern evolves, as we take it day-by-day. Nonetheless, yesterday still looks like the biggest event of the week, with things a bit less wild today and coming days may feature modest threats, but mesoscale details could always result in something "better" than expected.

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Surprisingly high 60/30 tornado probabilities on the Tornado Watch out for North-Central/Northeastern Nebraska and Western South Dakota. Storms taking off now... Guess we'll see how long a discrete mode can persist. 

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 * Primary threats include...
     Widespread large hail expected with isolated very large hail
       events to 4 inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
       to 75 mph possible
     A tornado or two possible

ww0324_radar_big.png

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LLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD  
608 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  EAST CENTRAL BROWN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...  
  
* UNTIL 645 PM CDT  
  
* AT 607 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER GROTON, MOVING  
  NORTH AT 40 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.   
  
  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. A TORNADO WAS   
           REPORTED 1 MILE SOUTH OF GROTON AT 607 PM CDT

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I guess the enhanced risk in the northern Plains at least verified the hail/wind threat. Perhaps it might have verified a moderate risk for hail/wind. The marginal risk in my old home of NW Ohio essentially turned out to be a slight risk. There have been 13 prelim. tornado reports as of now.

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Tomorrow (Thursday, June 15) looks interesting across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Not really a tornado setup, but may become a classic Southern Plains damaging wind event. 12Z 3KM NAM has north 850s at 85 knots just north of OKC by 10 PM Thursday with a fast-moving forward propagating MCS. Certainly, wouldn't discount that possibility, but I doubt models have the exact positioning down at this juncture. 

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2 hours ago, David Reimer said:

Tomorrow (Thursday, June 15) looks interesting across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Not really a tornado setup, but may become a classic Southern Plains damaging wind event. 12Z 3KM NAM has north 850s at 85 knots just north of OKC by 10 PM Thursday with a fast-moving forward propagating MCS. Certainly, wouldn't discount that possibility, but I doubt models have the exact positioning down at this juncture. 

Large MUCAPE showing up into the 03-06z time frame across much Oklahoma should also help support MCS maintenance. I could see the convective system making it even farther southeast, into the Arklatex vicinity given the downstream environment around the periphery of the upper level ridge. 

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10 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Large MUCAPE showing up into the 03-06z time frame across much Oklahoma should also help support MCS maintenance. I could see the convective system making it even farther southeast, into the Arklatex vicinity given the downstream environment around the periphery of the upper level ridge. 

Agree with the bolded portion. These type of systems typically last longer than models indicate it seems, especially with the type of downstream environment progged for tomorrow. This would especially be true if an 80+kt rear-inflow jet developed as David mentioned. 

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Picture from the fiance, Paige Burress, from Monday well north of Kimball, NE. Looks like we had three mesos at the time with the center one producing the tornado. The one in the back produced a tornado a few minutes later. The foreground storm, easily the most structured, went on to produce twin anti-cyclonic tornadoes on a plateau about 20-25 minutes later as we were driving parallel to it. 

 

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Wouldn't be surprised to see a MDT risk for swaths of destructive winds tomorrow for the current modeled MCS/bow, probably across KS and possibly extending into OK. Impressive owndraft CAPEs are indicative of higher-end wind potential. Interested to see how long stuff stays discrete tomorrow though as the wind profile is very favorable for supercells. 

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