2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[NJwx85]

Lee is finally making the much anticipated turn to the Northwest. As @Drz1111 mentioned, he does appear to be displaying some annual characteristics. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on your outlook, Lee should gradually turn to the North and then Northeast in about 48 hours before being absorbed into the same frontal boundary responsible for kicking Maria OTS.

[CheeselandSkies]

I can't remember, how many consecutive days has there been at least one active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin? Did Irma become a tropical storm while Harvey was still one or not until a few days after? If they were concurrent, we have to be well over a month now.

[TomAtkins]

36 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I can't remember, how many consecutive days has there been at least one active tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin? Did Irma become a tropical storm while Harvey was still one or not until a few days after? If they were concurrent, we have to be well over a month now.

According to Wikipedia Hurricane Harvey got renamed on Aug 24. Irma became a named storm on August 30. So the streak goes back to August 24 of having at least a tropical storm in the Atlantic Basin.

That streak should end no later than Friday when the front picks up Lee. So that would be 37 days in a row with at least one named tropical storm in the basin. 2004 appears to have had 39 straight days (Frances was named on August 25, Lisa became extra tropical on October 2), so we wont quite reach that. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Is that a record? I don't think even 2005 achieved that. There were a couple of one-day periods where the only active cyclones were either dissipating or newly formed depressions (that year's incarnations of Lee and Maria from 8/31-9/1, for example). Even counting depressions, there were "only" 35 days of continuous activity from August 22nd (That year's Jose) until September 26th, when Rita disspiated. The depression that became Stan formed on September 30th.

As an aside, that particular list seems to have a penchant for going through names. Maria is almost certainly gone after this year. I believe that leaves only the first three (Arlene, Bret, Cindy) plus Emily (which I'm flabbergasted wasn't retired after its 2005 version became a July Cat. 5 and made double landfalls as a major in Mexico, killing 17), Jose and Lee (which will likely recycle after this year due to minimal land impacts) from the list that entered 2005. The I name will have been replaced twice, after 2011's Irene and this year's Irma.

 

Edit: Gert, Nate, Ophelia, Phillipe, Tammy and Vince also have been/will be reused. For some reason I thought Ophelia was gone, but 2005's version just teased the OBX and 2011's became a powerful Cat. 4 but remained out to sea. Interesting to note that Rita was replaced by an identical name except for one letter, "Rina."

[CheeselandSkies]

Mesmerizing to watch little Lee with its (relative to the CDO) huge, perfectly round eye churn towards Maria's vast outflow.

[Hazey]

Impressive rejuvenation by Lee. Pretty much flat lined a week ago. Was defibrillated and came back strong and healthy. Great back from the dead example.

[NJwx85]

Part of the reason for the weakness in the ridge is because of Maria. I wonder if she wasn't there if Lee would have been far enough South to miss what seems like a relatively shallow trough.

It looks like the next couple of weeks will be quiet tropical wise. The GFS suite still likes the Western Caribbean for development in 10-14 days.

[Windspeed]

^The ECMWF is still trying to develop something of interest in the W. CARIB/GOM. And the EPS still keeps inverted surface troughyness over the general area. So something may very well develop out of that feature. The big issue is whether the monster heat ridge stretching from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic will allow anything to sniff the Gulf Coast. Seems like any system would eventually find its way into Mexico unless it develops at a higher latitude. Of course, all of this is way out towards the end of the medium range so we have lots of time to watch the models play with this idea.

And speaking of the behemoth heat ridge remaining over the eastern interior and SE CONUS in general, the GOM has been baking without much surface mixing since Harvey. And that was closer to the Texas coastal shelf and SSTs have recovered since. SSTs remain quite high across the GOM with plenty of heat potential for anything that might develop within or enter it. Of course, the W. Caribbean is untouched. Really any deterrence of a strong system is going to rely more on the upper environment, which is impossible to forsee this far out.

[Amped]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

^The ECMWF is still trying to develop something of interest in the W. CARIB/GOM. And the EPS still keeps inverted surface troughyness over the general area. So something may very well develop out of that feature. The big issue is whether the monster heat ridge stretching from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic will allow anything to sniff the Gulf Coast. Seems like any system would eventually find its way into Mexico unless it develops at a higher latitude. Of course, all of this is way out towards the end of the medium range so we have lots of time to watch the models play with this idea.

And speaking of the behemoth heat ridge remaining over the eastern interior and SE CONUS in general, the GOM has been baking without much surface mixing since Harvey. And that was closer to the Texas coastal shelf and SSTs have recovered since. SSTs remain quite high across the GOM with plenty of heat potential for anything that might develop within or enter it. Of course, the W. Caribbean is untouched. Really any deterrence of a strong system is going to rely more on the upper environment, which is impossible to forsee this far out.

That is too large to really be a decent storm. Kind of reminds me of Subtropical storm Nicole in 2010 which did unfortunately produce a lot of rain.

[Windspeed]

That is too large to really be a decent storm. Kind of reminds me of Subtropical storm Nicole in 2010 which did unfortunately produce a lot of rain.

 

Don't focus on size or characteristics of a surface low this far out. Focus on the pattern and there being a trend of vorticity developing out of the inverted surface trough or gyre near the W.Carib/Yucatan. Harvey was essentially a large inverted surface wave remant of its former circulation over the Yucatan. It wasn't until it formed a new tight vortex under intense convection in the GOM that it began to take off. Anything or nothing could come out of this surface feature. But its repeated modeled presence as we go into next week is the important trend to watch.

 

[Chinook]

9 hours ago, Hazey said:

Impressive rejuvenation by Lee. Pretty much flat lined a week ago. Was defibrillated and came back strong and healthy. Great back from the dead example.

I wonder how Hurricane Lee ever made it to 100kt, Category 3 status with SSTs of about 27-28C. Isn't that a little low for 100kt? Maybe everything else was perfect, with low shear. Maybe it hit a warm spot of 29C.

[Windspeed]

I wonder how Hurricane Lee ever made it to 100kt, Category 3 status with SSTs of about 27-28C. Isn't that a little low for 100kt? Maybe everything else was perfect, with low shear. Maybe it hit a warm spot of 29C.

 

Marginal 27-28°C SSTs is warm enough to support a Category 3 hurricane. Irma was a Category 3 long before it crossed over the 28°+ shallow layer in the MDR. You still need good upper support, however.

[Drz1111]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

I wonder how Hurricane Lee ever made it to 100kt, Category 3 status with SSTs of about 27-28C. Isn't that a little low for 100kt? Maybe everything else was perfect, with low shear. Maybe it hit a warm spot of 29C.

Annular hurricanes are closer to the slope of tc potential intensity.

[Hazey]

Plus 2017 has been a magical year in getting tropical systems to their full potential.

[Eskimo Joe]

I noticed NHC gives an area of disturbed weather near Cuba a 40% - 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.  I am down in Lee County Florida on an EMAC mission through the 4th of Oct but can't find is this is an invest yet.  Our uplink is spotty as well so it's hard for me to pull big data down.  Anyone have thoughts on this activity?

[Windspeed]

I noticed NHC gives an area of disturbed weather near Cuba a 40% - 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.  I am down in Lee County Florida on an EMAC mission through the 4th of Oct but can't find is this is an invest yet.  Our uplink is spotty as well so it's hard for me to pull big data down.  Anyone have thoughts on this activity?

 

That is one of the first areas of vorticity that tries to develop out of the surface trough/gyre that dominates the W. Carib over the coming 10-12 days. We've been discussing this whole area for possible development.

 

The models show this particular piece of energy breaking off the east side of the surface trough and moving north into the weakness near Florida left by Maria. The ULL west of Florida enhances convection and it may close off into a vortex either in the Bahamas or over/ nearto the peninsula. Where that occurs will obviously be the difference between something substantial or just gusty showers and thundertorms.

 

As the weakness fills and a strong heat ridge builds over the southeast interior, whatever becomes of this energy moves west along the gulf coast. The models generally keep this weak as it doesn't seem to have the best upper support. Plus there is land interaction to contend. But it definitely should be watched.

 

Additionally, the surface trough remains in the W. Carib and another area of interest comes out of it later next week that moves across the Yucatan into the central GOM.

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

That is one of the first areas of vorticity that tries to develop out of the surface trough/gyre that dominates the W. Carib over the coming 10-12 days. We've been discussing this whole area for possible development.

 

The models show this particular piece of energy breaking off the east side of the surface trough and moving north into the weakness near Florida left by Maria. The ULL west of Florida enhances convection and it may close off into a vortex either in the Bahamas or over, nearto the peninsula. Where that occurs will obviously be the difference between something substantial or just gusty showers and thundertorms.

 

As the weakness fills and a strong heat ridge builds over the southeast interior, whatever becomes of this energy moves west along the gulf coast. The models generally keep this weak as it doesn't seem to have the best upper support. Plus there is land interaction to conyend.

 

Additionally, the surface trough remains in the W. Carib and another area of interest comes out of it later next week that moves across the Yucatan into the central GOM.

 

I need the Yucatan stuff to go away.  Heading to Tulum, MX next Friday.   Legit bummed.  

[Windspeed]

I need the Yucatan stuff to go away.  Heading to Tulum, MX next Friday.   Legit bummed.  

That's awesome! For how many days? Akumal is such a lovely place as is the entire Riviera Maya. As for the weather, the nasty stuff may have pulled NW into the Gulf by then. That's a long way out. You'll have fun no less. There's plenty of alcohol.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I need the Yucatan stuff to go away.  Heading to Tulum, MX next Friday.   Legit bummed.  
 

That's awesome! For how many days? Akumal is such a lovely place as is the entire Riviera Maya. As for the weather, the nasty stuff may have pulled NW into the Gulf by then. That's a long way out. You'll have fun no less. There's plenty of alcohol.

Going from Friday-Tuesday.  I'm not a tropics dude, so I've been following along like a weenie in here the last few days.   I'm good with a broader view, but I really on folks in here for the granular stuff.  It looked fairly weak from what I saw and yes, like you posted, it looked to be moving out by the time I get there or shortly after.   I can deal with some rain, I just don't want flight-cancelling tropical noise. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

 

That is one of the first areas of vorticity that tries to develop out of the surface trough/gyre that dominates the W. Carib over the coming 10-12 days. We've been discussing this whole area for possible development.

 

The models show this particular piece of energy breaking off the east side of the surface trough and moving north into the weakness near Florida left by Maria. The ULL west of Florida enhances convection and it may close off into a vortex either in the Bahamas or over/ nearto the peninsula. Where that occurs will obviously be the difference between something substantial or just gusty showers and thundertorms.

 

As the weakness fills and a strong heat ridge builds over the southeast interior, whatever becomes of this energy moves west along the gulf coast. The models generally keep this weak as it doesn't seem to have the best upper support. Plus there is land interaction to contend. But it definitely should be watched.

 

Additionally, the surface trough remains in the W. Carib and another area of interest comes out of it later next week that moves across the Yucatan into the central GOM.

Thanks.  Up to 3 bars of 3G now so maybe we'll have enough of a pipe for satellite tomorrow.

[Windspeed]

The second disturbance that the models try to develop out of the W. Carib surface trough later next week is being driven up the eastern Gulf right into the Tennessee Valley. Heights crash. That's a huge shift in pattern. The ECMWF is also crashing heights over the eastern CONUS but doesn't show any particularly strong tropical vorticity coming that far north.

[Windspeed]

A very intense convective complex is nearly stationary west of Grand Cayman. Background pressures are low. You never know... that could take over low-level vorticity.

[NJwx85]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

A very intense convective complex is nearly stationary west of Grand Cayman. Bsckground pressures are low. You never know... that could take over low-level vorticity.

The 18z GFS brings that system North and then Southwest, just off the Yucatan or possibly into the Bay of Campeche. Doesn't look like anything more than a weak area of disturbed weather that needs to be watched. We certainly know what systems that develop in that region are capable of.

[bluewave]

The first 200 ACE season for the Atlantic since 2004 and 2005.

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has reached 200 ACE - 3rd fastest to this milestone on record (trailing 1933 and 2004). #Maria #Leepic.twitter.com/jerge79Qn2

2:04 PM - 28 Sep 2017

 

8 Atlantic full hurricane seasons prior to 2017 reached 200 ACE: 1893, 1926, 1933, 1950, 1961, 1995, 2004, 2005.

2:05 PM - 28 Sep 2017

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like the outlined area south of Cuba is now 99L.

[gritsnc]

7 hours ago, Windspeed said:

7 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I need the Yucatan stuff to go away.  Heading to Tulum, MX next Friday.   Legit bummed.  
 

That's awesome! For how many days? Akumal is such a lovely place as is the entire Riviera Maya. As for the weather, the nasty stuff may have pulled NW into the Gulf by then. That's a long way out. You'll have fun no less. There's plenty of alcohol.

Oh we love, love, love Akumal! We wanted to get to Tulum but never did because we were so contend in Akumal. Hopefully you will have good weather stormtracker!

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, NicInNC said:

Oh we love, love, love Akumal! We wanted to get to Tulum but never did because we were so contend in Akumal. Hopefully you will have good weather stormtracker!

Been 2x now. Love it..Rustic and quiet and beautiful.  Nice ruins as well.  Models look a little better today.

[CheeselandSkies]

Based on the NHC forecast tracks, it looks like they expect both Lee and Maria to be absorbed by the same frontal system across the northern Atlantic. That could be a nasty storm coming in from the west for the British Isles.

[Will - Rutgers]

watching videos of harvey, irma, and maria has been overwhelming

the power is just too much.  millions of people can be tossed around like toys by thermodynamics.  it's just amazing to think about what this planet can do.

[Akeem the African Dream]

This slopgyre is boring and won't produce much of anything