2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Hoth]

2 hours ago, marsman said:

NHC will be initiating advisories at 11 AM AST on Tropical Storm Irma, located west of the Cabo Verde Islands. - Issued 30 Aug 2017 12:52 UTC   

You win the prize for greatest thumbnail. "El Nino is Spanish for, 'the nino.'"

[Brick Tamland]

Last thing Texas needs.

 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Last thing Texas needs.

 

I don't know if anyone here puts any stock in the Farmer's Almanac, but...ocassionally (very occasionally, lol) it does hit. And it just so happens to have "Hurricane threat for the Gulf Coast" in that exact date range. Yikes...

[TPAwx]

Not only Texas but that system as modeled on the GFS rides along and punishes almost the entire Gulf coast to the big bend.  It would be funny if it wasn't so frightening of a scenario.  Too far out in time at this point other than to wait for the next solution.

[Jackstraw]

Seems like the wave train has been coming in 3's this year

 

 

[MJO812]

18z

Jose

 

[yoda]

TS Jose has formed... advisories have been started

[wxmx]

Invest 95L already looks like a Tropical Cyclone

 

 

The latest Euro develops it into a mid/high end TS, but keeps it meandering for at least 4 days. Probably a rain maker only, but a prolific one at that.

[Chargers09]

39 minutes ago, wxmx said:

Invest 95L already looks like a Tropical Cyclone

 

 

The latest Euro develops it into a mid/high end TS, but keeps it meandering for at least 4 days. Probably a rain maker only, but a prolific one at that.

any idea where it heads on the models? 

[wxmx]

2 minutes ago, Chargers09 said:

any idea where it heads on the models? 

Loops east, southeast then back west, with landfall south of Tampico

[SteveVa]

And as of 5PM eastern, we have TD-13 in BoC

[wxmx]

High chance of 3 simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic basin...probably even by tonight or tomorrow morning

[Bruinsyear]

Crazy not every day you see 3 well defined systems in the ATL.

[wxmx]

2 hours ago, wxmx said:

High chance of 3 simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic basin...probably even by tonight or tomorrow morning

...Or by this afternoon

 

Now we have 3 hurricanes. Can't rule out 3 simultaneous majors as Jose and Katia are expected to intensify further, maybe even RI

[gymengineer]

We had 4 at the same time in 1998, but it's the location of the Katia and Jose that makes the current main graphic on the hurricane center website a truly remarkable picture. 

[MJO812]

GFS develops another low behind Jose which would be Lee. Very active Atlantic basin.

[Supercane]

Curiously, in the last time we had 3 simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic, the locations and the letters look familiar...

 

[mfgmfg]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml

Busy day for tomorrow:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061540
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT WED 06 SEPTEMBER 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2017
         TCPOD NUMBER.....17-097 CORRECTION

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE IRMA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76         FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 07/2300Z, 08/0530Z         A. 08/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 1811A IRMA           B. NOAA9 1911A IRMA
       C. 07/2100Z                   C. 08/0530Z CORRECTED
       D. 21.2N 71.7W                D. NA
       E. 07/2230Z TO 08/0530Z       E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42       FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 75
       A. 08/0900Z                   A. 08/1130Z,1730Z
       B  NOAA2 2011A IRMA           B. AFXXX 2111A IRMA
       C. 08/0700Z                   C. 08/0845Z
       D. 21.7N 73.8W                D. 21.9N 74.2W
       E. 08/0900Z TO 08/1300Z       E. 08/1100Z TO 08/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 42
       A. 08/2100Z                   D. 22.1N 75.1W
       B. NOAA2 2211A IRMA           E. 08/2100Z TO 09/0100Z
       C. 08/1900Z                   F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. TROPICAL STORM KATIA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 08/0000Z                   A. 08/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0313A KATIA          B. AFXXX 0413A KATIA
       C. 07/2100Z                   C. 08/0900Z
       D. 21.ON 95.2W                D. 20.7N 95.4W
       E. 07/2330Z TO 08/0300Z       E. 07/1130Z TO 07/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. TROPICAL STORM JOSE
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 77
       A. 08/1200Z                   D. 15.4N 55.3W
       B. AFXXX 0112A JOSE           E. 08/1130Z TO 08/1430Z
       D. 08/0900Z                   F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    4. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES ON IRMA.
       MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS ON IRMA BY THE P-3 AND G-IV.
       FIXES EVERY 12 HRS ON KATIA. ANOTHER FIX ON JOSE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS.
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
JWP

[Windspeed]

The Atlantic basin has nearly doubled its ACE versus climatology through Sept. 6th thanks mostly to Irma:

 

75.6 (42.9)

 

[wxmx]

Chance of 3 simultaneous majors are increasing. Tomorrow will be the day this may happen. I think there are no occurrences of such happening before in the Atlantic basin.

[Stebo]

11 hours ago, wxmx said:

Chance of 3 simultaneous majors are increasing. Tomorrow will be the day this may happen. I think there are no occurrences of such happening before in the Atlantic basin.

I would have to imagine there is only a handful of instances of 2 majors simultaneously occurring in the Atlantic.

[Hoth]

On August 19, 2017 at 3:11 PM, ldub23 said:

Wasnt  much of a  burst and Harvey dissipated as  i expected. Looks  like thru mid sept at least  it will be rather quiet.

Given the present state of things, I'd like to formally nominate this for the worst post of the year award. 

[Stebo]

4 hours ago, Hoth said:

Given the present state of things, I'd like to formally nominate this for the worst post of the year award. 

Slam dunk worst post of the year might even be up there with the all timers.

[Windspeed]

ACE 109.1 (46.2)

The Atlantic doesn't normally pass the century mark until Nov. 8th.

[MJO812]

2 new lemons in the Atlantic

 

[CheeselandSkies]

How quickly the landscape can change. Not long ago there was talk about how the Atlantic was way behind on ACE through eight named storms due to Harvey's short time as a major and the lack of punch displayed by the first seven.

[olafminesaw]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

2 new lemons in the Atlantic

 

[Big Jims Videos]

I noticed Lee is the name of the next storm...I'm surprised it wasn't retired after all the damage 2011 Lee caused in northeastern PA and NY.  

[Windspeed]

Aside from beach erosion and any low potential land interaction with OBX that can't yet be entirely ruled out, Jose's meandering in the general vicinity between the Bahamas and Bermuda has been beneficial. Jose's circulation has decreased shallow layer SSTs around 2°C over a large area, and in combination with Irma, their upwelling has significantly weakened TCHP north of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Granted, the Bahamas are still bathwater, as is most of the Caribbean and GOM. But any potential future NW trackers into the triangle may be checked in intensity, at least until a closer approach into the Bahamas or the Gulf Stream. Obviously any tracks further south into the Bahamas would still have high intensity/major hurricane potential.

Thought I'd chuck this in here since it pertains to any future systems that may track NE of Bahamas.

[Windspeed]

I'm really liking 97L for significant development in the short term south of the Cape Verdes. ASCAT missed the area but visible looks impressive and it may be stacking an MLC over the surface low. We may have a named storm out of this feature by tomorrow.