MillvilleWx Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: So far good news if Euro is right. It hits nobody through day 10. The bad news is no Hispaniola to destroy it if it becomes a monster and heads for the Bahamas or Carolinas Water temps running at 29-30C over the Bahamas up into the Gulf stream. Weak shear out ahead. If Euro is even close to right, that would be an ugly setup. Upstream pattern over the US will be something to watch on all guidance around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: Well, 12z gfs dropped 93 completely. Euro will too. Can we please ban this guy? Seriously. There is no report function here, but it's beyond absurd at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 I just noticed the 12z Euro EPS mean is largely missing the deep EC trough, in such a case this has SE threat written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 58 minutes ago, canderson said: Can we please ban this guy? Seriously. There is no report function here, but it's beyond absurd at this point. He already was 5 posted a couple weeks ago and he was warned today. Calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: He already was 5 posted a couple weeks ago and he was warned today. Calm down. Thank you (sincerely, didn't realize he was 5 posted already). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parterre Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Are people monitoring the potential disturbance forecast in the Gulf for next week? I can't find any discussion of it, but the 12z GFS shows another 24 inches (!!!) being dumped directly on Harris County next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 There is a report function, look to the right of "posted xx minutes ago" and you'll find it hiding in plain sight. Meanwhile, anyone else think that Potential 10 will be upgraded to a TS or hurricane once it cranks up a bit more? But if not, then if the Cape Verde system reaches TD status, will it be actual 10, potential 11, actual 11? I am getting dizzy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 GFS has trended towards the CMC and Euro with development of 93L https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017082918&fh=234 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 93L is a major hurricane for Florida on the GFS https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017082918&fh=264&xpos=0&ypos=1001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 The 18z creates a monster cane in the long range going through the Florida straights up the West coast making landfall on the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Every model now develops a major hurricane This is going to be very interesting to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 29, 2017 Author Share Posted August 29, 2017 Some takeaways from today's runs -Likely to be a long tracked Cape Verde hurricane -US impacts possible, but unknown at the time -Could exhibit a rare WSW motion on a portion of its track -Likely to be a large storm, not a small one like Harvey -Could be a tropical cyclone within the next day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Wild card is the TC in the West Pac. It's going to cause a major wave break and amplify the downstream pattern. Model skill tends to tank during one of these, so the details on the synoptic situation over the US may be more muddy than usual. At any rate, 'tis the season for Cape Verde buzzsaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyHolikWillFindYou Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Will there be a new 93L thread created? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 42 minutes ago, BobbyHolikWillFindYou said: Will there be a new 93L thread created? When the time comes, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Big climo difference below and above 20N, something like 5x more likely to hit the US if below 20N at that longtitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 NHC now has 93L up to 90% for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck said: Big climo difference below and above 20N, something like 5x more likely to hit the US if below 20N at that longtitude. Yeah the 20N 60W benchmark rule holds true more often than not....surprisingly good agreement with the Euro/GFS/CMC, at 216 hrs they all have the storm and not only that they are all within a hundred miles or so of each other with its location. Of course this will jump around run to run but that kind of agreement in that range even if for one run is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 I know it's hard for snow weenies to do, but I genuinely believe one's understanding of a given system is actively reduced by even looking at the CMC. It's in the same class as the NAM, but in the case of the CMC it's just too primitive and outdated. It's verification scores are godawful, about the worst of any global. Has an odd habit of anomalously delivering super-strong landfalls to New England that don't verify, but gets people excitied. Far better to look at UKMET if you want to look outside the GFS/EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 NHC at 90/90 as of 8pm on 93L. Probably gets PTC tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Just now, NortheastPAWx said: NHC at 90/90 as of 8pm on 93L. Probably gets PTC tomorrow. They only issue those when a watch or warning is needed. Otherwise it would already be a PTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 00z GFS crankin it up again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 00z EURO wants to add to the pain and suffering... homebrew tropical system it would appear at Day 7 in W GOM and through Day 9 is traversing the entire northern part of the GOM... but more rain likely for SE TX and W LA where they really don't need anymore this year ETA: 00z EURO at 240... 941mb Hurricane Irma about to move into the Bahamas moving in a WNW direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 41 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z EURO wants to add to the pain and suffering... homebrew tropical system it would appear at Day 7 in W GOM and through Day 9 is traversing the entire northern part of the GOM... but more rain likely for SE TX and W LA where they really don't need anymore this year ETA: 00z EURO at 240... 941mb Hurricane Irma about to move into the Bahamas moving in a WNW direction 931mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Gfs has an east coast threat Cmc and Euro also look threatening The models also have another tropical system that hits the gulf coast. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 According to NHC , looks like 93L will be Irma later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Why are we taking about track after 240hrs. For god sakes the system has barely passed Cape Verde. There's not gonna be any sort of accurate track for several days yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Why are we taking about track after 240hrs. For god sakes the system has barely passed Cape Verde. There's not gonna be any sort of accurate track for several days yet. Strongly disagree. The pattern for an EC threat is very obvious several days out. But most threats don't turn into actual landfalls. It's perfectly reasonable to talk about autofish v. threat at this stage in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Why are we taking about track after 240hrs. For god sakes the system has barely passed Cape Verde. There's not gonna be any sort of accurate track for several days yet. That's why I long ago coined the phrase the "Cape Verde blues" because often times meteorologists spend 2 weeks or more watching the system developing and alerting clients about where it may go and assuming it will hit some Caribbean location or the US and many times it misses both, never develops into anything, or it does but the cycle doesn't time correctly and it ends up being a weak system when it does hit. When it's all over you have a case of the Cape Verde blues because you wasted all that time and effort for no reason. I think I came up with it after Isabel which may have been the most disappointing Cape Verde system ever as far as end impacts. I was literally working two jobs. My non weather job at the time from 9-5 and then my meteorology job from 6-10pm every night for 2 weeks and thinking NYC was going to be hit for sure about 5 days out then it more or less hit NC as a bastardized version of its former self Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 NHC will be initiating advisories at 11 AM AST on Tropical Storm Irma, located west of the Cabo Verde Islands. - Issued 30 Aug 2017 12:52 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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