NJwx85 Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Both invests are now day 2 Mandarins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Boy, the models are just not too hot for anything the rest of the month. They continue to show a series of solid waves moving off Africa, but they all gradually diminish to nothing as they traverse the stable MDR. Maybe we can get something else to defy the models and pop outside the MDR, like Gert. Perhaps this will be another season with a weak peak, but a big October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Wasnt much of a burst and Harvey dissipated as i expected. Looks like thru mid sept at least it will be rather quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Wasnt much of a burst and Harvey dissipated as i expected. Looks like thru mid sept at least it will be rather quiet. Harvey is expected to regain TS strength tomorrow and peak at 60kts in about 72hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Perhaps it will but it still wasnt a big deal at all considering its peak season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Having read the NHC disco i think they also agree its an open wave but are just saying its a depression for continuity. They also say its quite possible it will never regenerate. Another weak so called storm dying over open tropical water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Perhaps it will but it still wasnt a big deal at all considering its peak season. You can quote me on this but I am believer in the idea of peak season having shifted forward about a month. We shall see, and especially in a season without ENSO positive conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 58 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: You can quote me on this but I am believer in the idea of peak season having shifted forward about a month. We shall see, and especially in a season without ENSO positive conditions. Forward? I'd wager October has been the biggest month in the past several seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Forward? I'd wager October has been the biggest month in the past several seasons. I think the poster meant October. Just for clarification, folks should know that, with respect to time, back means later and forward means sooner for posterity. I don't think peak season has shifted back a full month, but it may have shifted back a few weeks over the past decade. Might be something to look into when I have the time to break down seasonal trends since 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 4 at once. that would mean the pattern has finally changed from the multiyear dullness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 12 minutes ago, ldub23 said: 4 at once. that would mean the pattern has finally changed from the multiyear dullness. That last one just off the African coast being at 20N well before 40W would almost certainly be a fish storm. Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 26 minutes ago, bigtenfan said: That last one just off the African coast being at 20N well before 40W would almost certainly be a fish storm. Correct? 100%, especially with that other low in the mid-atlantic weakening the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: 100%, especially with that other low in the mid-atlantic weakening the ridge. Thanks. I am really learning a lot from reading this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 On 8/19/2017 at 6:32 PM, ldub23 said: Having read the NHC disco i think they also agree its an open wave but are just saying its a depression for continuity. They also say its quite possible it will never regenerate. Another weak so called storm dying over open tropical water. How things have changed within a few days The warm waters of the gulf will do this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 26, 2017 Share Posted August 26, 2017 0z Euro and 6z GFS develop a tropical low moving forward. Looks like the wave train is not going to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 D10 Euro and GFS both have a TC in the Western North Atlantic - GFS receives, Euro seems less likely to. Canadian has two, but prob not as reliable. Worth watching but not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 33 minutes ago, eurojosh said: D10 Euro and GFS both have a TC in the Western North Atlantic - GFS receives, Euro seems less likely to. Canadian has two, but prob not as reliable. Worth watching but not yet. If that trough really digs around Great Lakes like euro suggests with that high pressure off in northwestern Atlantic, gonna be fun 10-12 days coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 On 8/19/2017 at 2:03 PM, hawkeye_wx said: Boy, the models are just not too hot for anything the rest of the month. They continue to show a series of solid waves moving off Africa, but they all gradually diminish to nothing as they traverse the stable MDR. Maybe we can get something else to defy the models and pop outside the MDR, like Gert. We certainly got that. If a weak system can make it to a more favorable spot close to home, it can blow up in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 I would drop 93L's chances to 10/30. May struggle along and possibly develop as it heads out like gert but i think the euro will be much weaker with it tonight if it still has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Even with Harvey we are still a bit below normal in ACE. If 93 doesnt develop then we will fall well below average in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 The Euro sends a major hurricane through the lesser antilies followed by a possible landfall in Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 10 hours ago, ldub23 said: Even with Harvey we are still a bit below normal in ACE. If 93 doesnt develop then we will fall well below average in 2 weeks. Aren't you the same guy that said Harvey was going to be a nothing storm that dies over Mexico? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 38 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro sends a major hurricane through the lesser antilies followed by a possible landfall in Puerto Rico. With a big trough coming down , watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 39 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Aren't you the same guy that said Harvey was going to be a nothing storm that dies over Mexico? He has zero credibility at this point. Zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 15 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Well, 12z gfs dropped 93 completely. Euro will too. I'll bet they dropped Harvey at one time or another too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 18 minutes ago, Hoth said: I'll bet they dropped Harvey at one time or another too. They did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 34 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Well, 12z gfs dropped 93 completely. Euro will too. You're already wrong, the 12z ECMWF initilized with this already as an organized TC. If this was closer to land it probably would be already designated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 55 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Well, 12z gfs dropped 93 completely. Euro will too. Hey Buddy, maybe get lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Euro day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 So far good news if Euro is right. It hits nobody through day 10. The bad news is no Hispaniola to destroy it if it becomes a monster and heads for the Bahamas or Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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