PDIII Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Just now, eurojosh said: I know this is model watching, and no other model shows it, but for 4 runs in a row the GFS has had a pretty significant tropical system hitting anywhere between FL and MA just beyond truncation. Thoughts? Thoughts are that it shows a nice little Hurricane or tropical storm about 5 days out down around Barbados. that's a pretty good location for the EC...well my expectations are pretty low considering that all I really care about is swell generation.. so having a cane lurking around in that part of the atlantic means that it is far enough south that even a hard recurve would still produce swell..at any rate, five days out is close enough for me to be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 This is the system the GFS is indicating...Still plenty of time for things to evolve and change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted July 10, 2017 Share Posted July 10, 2017 It's worth noting that the parallel GFS (which will become operational in just over a week) has not shown the major system that has been present in those GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 No discussion about small and noisy Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Definitly possible. The early Cape Verde season is a great sign even if it's still somewhat hostile down there. Also the relatively stable eastern trough position this summer screams tropical threat later on. I wouldn't be surprised to see a cane make a run at the east coast this season. Most likely impact areas NC and eastern NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 Surprised no mention, but TS Emily has formed just off the coast of Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 It looked pretty firmly embedded in the front when they named it, I was surprised. It did have a tight circulation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 Has there ever been a season where the first 5 so-called named storms add up to such a miniscule ACE? Maybe we will have 14 named storms and an ACE of 11 this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 8 hours ago, Modfan said: Surprised no mention, but TS Emily has formed just off the coast of Tampa. Did it surpass the last 3 in length of TS life? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 1, 2017 Author Share Posted August 1, 2017 Seems like Atlantic will begin to heat up over the next couple of weeks. Kelvin wave passes and ocean temperatures are kinda scary around the US currently. Especially in the Gulf where we saw nothing to something with Emily in about 6 to 7 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 1) I was wondering if this were out in the Atlantic, would this have been classified as a tropical storm without the radar data? 2) When was the last time a tropical storm made landfall in the United States without a reconnaissance aircraft going through the storm? Julia of 2016 would be an example, but the center was inland when it was first classified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 7 hours ago, tmagan said: 1) I was wondering if this were out in the Atlantic, would this have been classified as a tropical storm without the radar data? 2) When was the last time a tropical storm made landfall in the United States without a reconnaissance aircraft going through the storm? Julia of 2016 would be an example, but the center was inland when it was first classified. I think they are naming way too many things. Emily might add .0001 to the ace. You can make an argument we should be at 0/0/0 now. Arlene was the "most impressive" but it formed over water considered way too cold for a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 On 7/18/2017 at 4:36 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Definitly possible. The early Cape Verde season is a great sign even if it's still somewhat hostile down there. Also the relatively stable eastern trough position this summer screams tropical threat later on. I wouldn't be surprised to see a cane make a run at the east coast this season. Most likely impact areas NC and eastern NE Models best get busy showing something between 8/8 and 8/15. Most likely right now is no canes in that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 1, 2017 Author Share Posted August 1, 2017 Little MCV popping up in the GOM. Firing up convection too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 The Euro and some of the GFS ensemble members have something like a 30kt - 50 kt low in the northern islands (Martinique to Puerto Rico) at a range of several days out. The last 2 Euro runs have had a low in the Bay of Campeche. This Euro forecast has something substantial, could be indicating a Cat 1 hurricane. At this range of course, you look for trends moreso than anything exact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 http://i.imgur.com/frtNl8E.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 3, 2017 Author Share Posted August 3, 2017 06z GFS and CMC develop a hurricane out of this system. 00z Euro doesn't do much with it. 50/20 chances currently by NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Heating up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Heating up Right on schedule. And luckily the Western Atlantic Ridge looks favorable for a Southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 The Caribbean wave is now Invest 90L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 0z GFS at 240 riding the east coast of Florida 925MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Euro is the only model that is not showing 99 L It is focusing on the wave in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 The 6z gfs now takes it around 300 miles or so off the east coast of Florida to just near the outer banks to just off the east coast not appearing to actually make landfall. Obviously this will probably change with each run for probably the next 5-7 days or so before it zones in on a solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 1 hour ago, bigtenfan said: The 6z gfs now takes it around 300 miles or so off the east coast of Florida to just near the outer banks to just off the east coast not appearing to actually make landfall. Obviously this will probably change with each run for probably the next 5-7 days or so before it zones in on a solution I'll take an Earl type track. But let's put away the jump to conclusions mat until we at least have a true came to track as opposed to a small struggling storm barely deserving of a name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Things are heating up fast, now a 5 day cherry and a 5 day mandarin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 4, 2017 Author Share Posted August 4, 2017 Starting to become concerned about 90L for Texas. A couple of GEFS ensembles bring it up there, and Euro is too close for comfort. A north shift would put Texas in the cross hairs with very warm water. Of course a lot is subject to change over the next couple of days, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConnieMulligan Posted August 6, 2017 Share Posted August 6, 2017 Thanks for sharing the helpful information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Noaa updated their tropical outlook . The tropics should get active very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 15 hours ago, Snow88 said: Noaa updated their tropical outlook . The tropics should get active very soon. I disagree totally with them. Models show nothing for the next 10 days and they do show more east pac activity. Tropics wont get active very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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