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2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season


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GFS/GFS Para/Canadian have hints of a tropical storm near western FL, as well as a separate storm near Trinidad and Tobago.  FL storm may have a lot of 200-850mb shear on the north side if it forms. ECMWF has a broad low pressure in southern Gulf/Bay of Campeche.

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1 hour ago, WhiteoutWX said:

So is it not actually a depression then? I guess I need to read up more on this new Potential Tropical Cyclone term

A new product that started this year. It allows NHC to issue tropical related watches/warnings when a potential development is approaching land. Certainly, beats having to issue tropical storm warnings if a system develops 6 hours before landfall. 

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It's amusing how bad the NAM and NAM nest are with tropical cyclones. 3km NAM develops Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 into a Cat 1 shortly before landfall late Wednesday/early Thursday... I'm reminded of how the NAM/4NAM rapidly strengthened Hermine shortly before landfall as well last year (which did happen, to a degree).

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The forecast reminds me a lot of Tropical storm Lee in 2011.  Big slopgyre that drifted into the northern gulf coast.  It produced a lot of rain. To be clear, I am not calling for a redux in the Mid Atlantic since it is not forecast to stall.

 

lee2011rain.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...

NHC has given invest 94L in the MDR a 70% chance of cyclone formation over next 48hrs.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jul 4 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with the
broad area of low pressure centered about 800 miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands has not become any better organized
today. Environmental conditions are still favorable for a tropical
cyclone to form within the next day or two while the low moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Avila
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