Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,507
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    SnowHabit
    Newest Member
    SnowHabit
    Joined

Summer Banter & General Discussion/Observations

CapturedNature

By CapturedNature,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
cny rider

cny rider

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just imagine what it would be like if that western Atlantic Ridge didn't flex and cause this massive eastern heat that was called for a couple weeks ago.

This is good news.

We in upstate NY had been reading dire predictions about the impending heat wave(s) in New England earlier this summer and we were preparing for large numbers of incoming climate refugees seeking refuge.

Do you think we can stand down now?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Sugarloaf1989

Sugarloaf1989

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, cny rider said:

This is good news.

We in upstate NY had been reading dire predictions about the impending heat wave(s) in New England earlier this summer and we were preparing for large numbers of incoming climate refugees seeking refuge.

Do you think we can stand down now?

It's been a hot/humid summer in SNE, particularly at higher elevations, but I think we will survive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dan76

Dan76

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Surface low to deepen as it passes through our longitude.  Hurricane force winds at 850mb are being modeled by the NAM and CMC, GFS and EURO are displaced south, tonight's runs are very important 

Most importantly, however, is the possible development of a
strong low level jet. The NAM is very strong...and seemingly an
outlier...but not necessarily. It forecasts the low to deepen to
1002 mb and tracks it slightly farther north than the Canadian
and even more so than the GFS and ECMWF, which are the farthest
south. The NAM produces 850 mb winds of 60-70 kt and 925 winds
near 55-60 kt for a period between 06Z and 09Z whereas the other
models are more like 35-50 kt. In any case, it is quite strong
for this time of year. All models show an increase in K indices
to 36-38 in southern RI/southeast MA, so will forecast embedded
thunderstorms along with the rain there. Although it is
happening at night, models do show some CAPE...on order of
300-500 J/kg...along the south coast of MA at that time frame,
along with 0-1km helicities of 400-500. Those helicity values
are different from the east-west oriented band of higher values
in northern MA that would normally be associated north of a warm
front. These are strictly in association with the LLJ. SPC SREF
shows a low probability of a tornado along the extreme south
coast from 03Z to 09Z. This does fit our conceptual model of
this type of system. Our main concern is to watch for convective
development and potential waterspouts over the southern coastal
waters, south of MVY and ACK.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Just doing some exploring of there and Ashburnham in case I were to move closer to Boston.

Royalston doesn't get you much closer since it's so far off the highway.  Harvard, Shirley, Bolton and Groton have some nice country properties and are in the "snow belt".  Probably way over priced though...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Royalston doesn't get you much closer since it's so far off the highway.  Harvard, Shirley, Bolton and Groton have some nice country properties and are in the "snow belt".  Probably way over priced though...

Yeah--my brother is in Harvard.  Mucho bucks.  They don't  do as well in the snow department as Ashburnham and Royalston.  Of course, there's always Lunenburg!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Yeah--my brother is in Harvard.  Mucho bucks.  They don't  do as well in the snow department as Ashburnham and Royalston.  Of course, there's always Lunenburg!

The school in Royalston has 145 students...some of whom come from other towns.

Thats a K-6 school.   One indicator of how tiny it is.    Ashburnham gets more snow I think, too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The school in Royalston has 145 students...some of whom come from other towns.

Thats a K-6 school.   One indicator of how tiny it is.    Ashburnham gets more snow I think, too.

The Mohawk district we live in now serves 9 towns.  The graduating class this year was 50, drawn from 400 square miles (the largest district in the state).

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Looks wet in this area.

Quote 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
* Pockets of heavy rain with localized urban/drainage flooding
  possible.
* Continued low probability of a water spout of south coastal
  areas.

Tonight...
Overview...Trof tends near neutral orienting equatorward
entrance region of strong +100kt upper lvl jet streak across S
NY/S New England during the overnight hours. Convective
cyclogenesis develops deepening sfc wave as a result, which
given current model track will move ENE from NJ across Long
Island and near/over Nantucket sound between 03Z and 09Z
tonight. Very strong LLJ signature, 50-60 kt out of the S just
ahead of the sfc wave. H92 warm frontal surge coincident with
this wave passage also yields forces slight destabilized air
across S coastal locations as the wave makes it`s closest pass.
This is all coincident with a high theta-e ridge and PWATS near
2.0 inches hugging S coastal areas.

Potential impacts are twofold...

Heavy rain: Although guidance is likely suffering from some
convective feedback issues, strong synoptic forcing and very
high PWATs (nearly 3 std deviations above normal) combined with
strong LLJ (also nearly 3 std deviations stronger than normal)
will provide a focus for a band of mod-heavy rainfall, oriented
close to the low pres wave. Therefore, have highest confidence
in area of heaviest rain areas S of the Mass Pike, with a
particular focus along the S coast, particularly Cape/Islands.
This will be enhanced by a short lived period of skinny CAPE and
deep warm-cloud processes. However, given the strong LLJ,
individual cells embedded within the band of widespread rain are
likely to be rather fast moving. Still an area of 1.50-2.00
inches with localized higher amounts are possible mainly along
the track of the low, currently focused on the S Coast. To the
N and up to the Mass Pike, slight f-gen banding should enhance
precip there as well, but with less of a convective threat, will
see more of a 1.00-1.50 inch potential, while areas further may
see less than an inch, all of which is inclusive of any SHRA
today. Note that given the convective feedback issues, and
therefore, some track uncertainty, this axis could shift.
Regarding any flooding threat, FFG (nearly 5.00 inches per hour
along Cape/Islands) is quite high where the axis of heaviest
rainfall is forecast. Further N that this will be more
synoptically driven rather than convective, feel the biggest
threat will be for a more urban/drainage flooding threat, which
will need to be watched through the overnight hours. Although,
if the heavy axis/convective risk shifts closer to the I-195
corridor, this raises the risk.

Waterspout/brief spin-up tornado risk: Potentially high impact,
but very low predictability type event here. As mentioned above,
with the theta-e surge and warm air push, there is a narrow
window between 03Z and 06Z tonight where modest instability (ML
CAPE values avg around 500j/kg) and very high shear (0-3km of 60
kt on some guidance with helicity values +500 coincide. Will be
mentioning thunder for S coastal areas so in any convective
elements, this suggests a risk for a brief spin- up, especially
given LCLs will be very low in the high- moisture airmass.
Mitigating factors are that the highest destabilization is
likely to be further offshore, and that the better instability
that does cross S Coastal areas/waters actually lags the
strongest LLJ core. Also, noting that with the warm air surge
aloft, soundings do become inverted somewhat, yielding very poor
low-lvl lapse rates. Feel it was at least worth mentioning the
low risk given just how anomalous the synoptic pattern/shear was
for August so this will have to be watched, but again with the
factors against and potential that best instability remains
offshore, it is possible that it may not occur at all.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

We storm. BOX ADD 

Heavy rain: Although guidance is likely suffering from some
convective feedback issues, strong synoptic forcing and very
high PWATs (nearly 3 std deviations above normal) combined with
strong LLJ (also nearly 3 std deviations stronger than normal)
will provide a focus for a band of mod-heavy rainfall, oriented
close to the low pres wave. Therefore, have highest confidence
in area of heaviest rain areas S of the Mass Pike, with a
particular focus along the S coast, particularly Cape/Islands.
This will be enhanced by a short lived period of skinny CAPE and
deep warm-cloud processes. However, given the strong LLJ,
individual cells embedded within the band of widespread rain are
likely to be rather fast moving. Still an area of 1.50-2.00
inches with localized higher amounts are possible mainly along
the track of the low, currently focused on the S Coast. To the
N and up to the Mass Pike, slight f-gen banding should enhance
precip there as well, but with less of a convective threat, will
see more of a 1.00-1.50 inch potential, while areas further may
see less than an inch, all of which is inclusive of any SHRA
today. Note that given the convective feedback issues, and
therefore, some track uncertainty, this axis could shift.
Regarding any flooding threat, FFG (nearly 5.00 inches per hour
along Cape/Islands) is quite high where the axis of heaviest
rainfall is forecast. Further N that this will be more
synoptically driven rather than convective, feel the biggest
threat will be for a more urban/drainage flooding threat, which
will need to be watched through the overnight hours. Although,
if the heavy axis/convective risk shifts closer to the I-195
corridor, this raises the risk.

Waterspout/brief spin-up tornado risk: Potentially high impact,
but very low predictability type event here. As mentioned above,
with the theta-e surge and warm air push, there is a narrow
window between 03Z and 06Z tonight where modest instability (ML
CAPE values avg around 500j/kg) and very high shear (0-3km of 60
kt on some guidance with helicity values +500 coincide. Will be
mentioning thunder for S coastal areas so in any convective
elements, this suggests a risk for a brief spin- up, especially
given LCLs will be very low in the high- moisture airmass.
Mitigating factors are that the highest destabilization is
likely to be further offshore, and that the better instability
that does cross S Coastal areas/waters actually lags the
strongest LLJ core. Also, noting that with the warm air surge
aloft, soundings do become inverted somewhat, yielding very poor
low-lvl lapse rates. Feel it was at least worth mentioning the
low risk given just how anomalous the synoptic pattern/shear was
for August so this will have to be watched, but again with the
factors against and potential that best instability remains
offshore, it is possible that it may not occur at all.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well my expectations are 1/2" for my back yard so I'm sure where that fits within your thoughts.

Yeah I could see that. Maybe even a bit more. But I see posts about soakings, we storm..etc. Not so sure it may live up to the expectations some have. Always real tough this time of year to get big widespread rains. Usually you want to be where the srfc low tracks. We did have a good widespread rain event a couple of weeks ago...7/24 I believe.  We'll see how it goes. Like you...was hoping for half inc too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I could see that. Maybe even a bit more. But I see posts about soakings, we storm..etc. Not so sure it may live up to the expectations some have. Always real tough this time of year to get big widespread rains. Usually you want to be where the srfc low tracks. We did have a good widespread rain event a couple of weeks ago...7/24 I believe.  We'll see how it goes. Like you...was hoping for half inc too.

1/2" is my low cutoff to call it a soaking in my book.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...